AI, Economy, and Employment

Question 1

Femi question

Answer 1

Making educated guesses about quantities or phenomena that are difficult or impossible to measure directly

E.g. How many piano tuners are there in Chicago
Quantitative reasoning + common sense

Question 2

GDP

can be used to estimate the value of AGI

Answer 2

Represents the monetary value of all final goods and services produced within the country’s borders during a given timeframe

Used to gauge the size, health, and growth of an economy, showing how much economic activity is happening

Question 3

Purchasing power

Answer 3

what the money is able to buy you

Question 4

What is one way to estimate the value of AGI?

Answer 4

Raising the living standard of everyone on earth, in a sustainable way, to a level that would be viewed as quite respectable in a developed country

Question 5

What GDP would be needed to sufficiently increase the standard of living

Answer 5

Would have to be a global tenfold increase in GDP from $76 trillion to $750 trillion per year

Question 6

Is it possible to inrease GDP by tenfold?

Answer 6

Yes, it occured in the last 100 years but with AI it likely won’t take that long

Question 7

What enabled a tenfold increase in GDP in the past?

Answer 7

factories, machines, automation, steel, cars, computers, etc

In the past, you need to many inventions to improve productivity but now there is only one invention needed (AI)

Question 8

Wat do we need in order to increase GDP tenfold with the same number of workers

Answer 8

we need to boost productivity by 10 times

Question 9

What is one possible outcome if AI boosts productivity?

Answer 9

The age of affluence, where everyone lives like a king
Personal doctor, personal finance advisor, personal political advisor, personal chef
This would be the best outcome
But what would the meaning of life be we can’t pur ourself into work

Question 10

Explain fears of AI and unemployment

Answer 10

fear that increase in prodcutivity is going to replace jobs

Question 11

What are Luddites as they relates to AI and unemployment?

Answer 11

The Luddites were members of a 19th century movement of English textile workers who opposed the use of certain types of automated machinery due to concerns over their jobs

Luddites now used ironically to describe people who fear tech advancement

Question 12

Explain how it’s possible that technology might increase jobs

Answer 12

Step 1: tech increases productivity
Step 2: Services become cheaper
Step 3: Demand increases
Step 4: More jobs

Question 13

Explain the example of the painting job market

Answer 13

If the brush is one hair wide, it takes thousands of persons to paint a house and essentially no housepainters are employed
Now, if the brush is a millimeter wide, a few delicate murals are painted in the royal palace by a handful of painters
At one centimeter, the nobility begins to follow suit
At 4 inches, we reach the realm of practicality: most homeowners have their houses painted inside and out, although perhaps not all that frequently, and thousands of housepainters find jobs
Once we get wide rollers and spray huns the price goes down considerable, but demand may begin to saturate so the number of housepainters drop
At this point, any increase in productivity requires fewer people to do the job
When one person manages a team of one hundred housepainting robots, then whole houses can be painted in an hour and very few housepainters will be working

Question 14

What does the curve for tech and employment look like?

Answer 14

Resembles a bell curve

X axis is productivity, y is number of people employed

Question 15

How will AI affect GDP?

Answer 15

AI will create an explosion fo wealth and services, which can only be owned and enjoyed by humans

Question 16

*What are four solutions moving forward with AI

Answer 16

1. The turing trap
2. Agumenting human intelligence
4. Value judgement is not rational utility calculus

Question 17

Solution 1: The turing trap

Answer 17

Instead of focusing on AI that replicates humans we should be building AI that is complementary to humans

Question 18

Solution 2: Augmenting human intelligence

Answer 18

Implementing chips in the human brain

Question 19

Solution 3:

Answer 19

Humans are valuable exactly because humans are
inefficient

Question 20

Solution 4: Value judgment is not rational utility calculus

Answer 20

We don’t always do things to be efficient

E.g. people didn’t consider the cost of building the Notre Dome - it was about demonstrating their spirituality