Articles Flashcards
(50 cards)
CAPM Theory
advantages of Arithmetic average return
- Represents the mean of all the returns that may possibly occur over the investment holding period
- Best estimator of expected (short-term) future returns
- The best gauge of the expected risk premium
CAPM Theory
advantages of geometric average return
- when past performance is being considered, the geometric mean (rg) summarizes the annualized rate of return over historical period;
- Best measure of realized (past) returns on an investment;
CAPM Theory
Effective Annual Rate - formula
EAR = (1+APR/K)^K-1
CAPM Theory
Describe relation between risk and realized return
The more risky asset is (higher volatility (st. dev.)), the higher realized returns
CAPM Theory
Conclusions for historical volatility and returns for individual stocks
- Relationship between size and risk: large stocks have lower volatility
- Even largest stocks more volatile than S&P
- No clear relationship between volatility and return
- Volatility doesn’t explain returns for individual stocks
CAPM Theory
Equity risk premium
the difference between the return on equities and the return on a risk-free asset
CAPM Theory
Inverse relation between risk premium and price
Risky assets have relatively low price, but a relatively higher expected return
CAPM Theory
The risk premium matters because it is central to:
- Projecting future investment returns - allocation of portfolio investment
- Calculating a company’s cost of equity capital - Determine the appropriate risk adjusted discount rate
- Valuing companies and shares - Discount future cash flow
- Appraising investment projects
- Determining fair rates of return for regulated utilities
CAPM Theory
Market risk premium - formula
Rm-Rf
CAPM Theory
Constant-growth model Formula
PV = DIV1/(r-g)
CAPM Theory
Relation between price and risk
Higher PV implies less risk - inverse relation between price and risk
CAPM Theory
Standard deviation formula and explanation
St.Dev = SQRT(Variance)
This is our measure of risk - volatility
Measured in percent - the same dimension as we gauge returns;
CAPM Theory
Coefficient of correlation formula
corr = (Cov AB)/(St.Dev. A * St. Dev B)
CAPM Theory
The sense of correlation
Correlation measures how returns move in relation to each other
CAPM Theory
Variance of portfolio returns - formula
Variance P = (wa)^2Var a + (wb)^2Var b + 2*(wa * wb * Cor ab * st. dev a * st. dev b)
CAPM Theory
Skewness - this is
A measure of symmetry, or more precisely, the lack of symmetry
CAPM Theory
Kurtosis - this is
A measure of whether the data are peaked or flat relative to a normal distribution
CAPM Theory
Skewness formula
Skewness = ([nju]^3/(st. dev)^3)
[nju]^3 - third moment - asymmetry measure
CAPM Theory
Valuation of skewness
Skewness for a normal distribution is zero, and any symmetric data should have a skewness near zero
- Negative values for skewness indicate data that skewed left
- Positive values for skewness indicate data that skewed right
CAPM Theory
Kurtosis (formula)
Kurtosis = ([nju]^4/(st. dev)^4)-3
[nju]^4 - fourth moment - asymmetry measure
CAPM Theory
Kurtosis valuation
The kurtosis for a standard normal distribution is 3
*for this reason, excess kurtosis is defined so that the standard normal distribution has a kurtosis of K=0
- Positive kurtosis indicates a “peaked” distribution;
- Negative kurtosis indicates a “flat” distribution
CAPM Theory
contribution of covariance
Covariance is the contribution of the security to the variance of the well diversified portfolio
CAPM Theory Leptokurtic distribution (definition)
A distribution with wide tails and a narrow peak (K>3)
CAPM Theory
Platykurtic ditribution
A distribution with thin tails and a relatively flat middle (K