Basic Numbers Flashcards
(24 cards)
solar levelized ppa price % fallen by since 2009
85%
majority of recent contracts have been found to be below in 2017$
$40/MWh
where most of the installed solar capacity has been concentrated
california and SW us
solar + storage projects have begun to attract low bids as well, reaching
$36/MWh in early 2018 by xcel energy in CO
Corporate demand for renewables is expected to reach XX by 2025
60 GW
technologies being built
CCs PV Wind storage
PJM 2019 capacity
203.609 GW
PJM 2019 energy
831,581 GWh
US 2018 build amount
31.3 GW
US 2018 retirement amount
18.7 GW
solar 2020 capital cost
$1,022/kWac
wind 2020 capital cost
$1,529/kW
battery 2020 capital cost
$1243/kWac
typical new heat rate CC, CT
5,500-6,000, 8,800-9,800 Btu/kWh
Total annual revenue amount of my projects
$800M
Total capacity of my projects
1.7 GW
US total capacity
Around 1,200 GW in 2018
US total generation
Around 4,017,555 GWh
Market analysis
Market size, growth rate, and trends
Where is it in its lifecycle (emerging? Mature? declining?)
Industry drivers
Customer segmentations
Margins – what are the typical margins in the industry
Industry changes - MA? New players?, Changes in technology?, Regulations?
Distributions channels
Major players and their market share (who has the rest of the market) and potential competitive responses
Product differentiation
Barriers to entry/exit
What role does technology play in the industry and how quickly will it change
Spark/dark spread definition
The spark spread is the difference between the wholesale market price of electricity and its cost of production using natural gas
Typical carbon emissions rate
Around 120-200 lbs/MMBtu
Carbon prices
Units $/ton
CA 2019: 14.3, 2040: 75.1
RGGI 2019: 4.4, 2040: 26.5
National 2026: .5, 2040: 15.2
PJM 2017 REC prices
PJM - Tier I_3 yr avg 5.83 NJ Solar 218.79 Ohio Solar 9.30 PA Solar 19.72 PJM - Tier II 2.563
Financial Assumptions
Nominal After Tax Equity Rate (%) 11% Equity Ratio (%) 45% Nominal Pre-Tax Debt Rate (%) 6% Debt Ratio (%) 55% Income Tax Rate (%) 35% Nominal After tax WACC (%) 6.9%
