Case Study: Th Arctic Circle

Question 1

What are the staked claims?

Answer 1

• The melting ice in the Arctic means more countries are trying to claim areas of it, so they have access to the Arctic’s abundant supply of oil, gas and minerals, which due to the melting ice is a lot easier to access for drilling.
• Although Russia and Norway have signed a deal over who owns what land, many of the other countries are still having conflicts decided on the areas of the Arctic of which they own. (Video)
• The USA and Canada disagree about the boundaries within the Beaufort Sea, home to the largest supply of Arctic oil
• Canada and Denmark are in dispute over the ownership of Hans Island, which could extend either of the country’s boundaries within the Arctic by 200 nautical miles.
  Many of the countries are arguing over the ownership of the Northwest Passage- the area through the top of Canada- trade routes and access.

Question 2

What is the northwest passage?

Answer 2

• The passage is too covered in sea ice to be used for regular shipping
  
  • Since 1979 arctic sea ice has been decreasing by 45% and replaced with thinner seasonal ice due to climate change- in future the passage will become clear for shipping for a few months every year.
  • 13% of unidscovered oil, 30% of gas are all found in the arctic.
  • Arctic would hold 90

Question 3

What is the arctic council?

Answer 3

• The Arctic Council is a high-level intergovernmental forum that addresses issues faced by the Arctic governments and the indigenous people of the Arctic.
• The eight countries with sovereignty over the lands within the Arctic Circle:
  
  • Canada
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • Iceland
  • Norway
  • Russia
  • Sweden
  • USA
• There are also observer states (e.g. France, Germany, UK, Spain, Singapore, China, Japan, Korea, India)
• It was formed in 1996 (at the Ottawa Declaration)
• Its main purpose:
  
  • promoting cooperation, coordination, and interaction among the Arctic states,
  • while involving the Arctic Indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants
  • on issues such as sustainable development and environmental protection
  • Permanent participants (actively represent the indigenous groups, by region), e.g.
    ○ Innuit Circumpolar Council - here
    ○ Saami Council - here
• The Arctic Council is a forum not a political cooperation; it has no programming budget. The projects are merely funded by member states only.
• Unlike the Antarctic, the Arctic does not have a treaty protecting it from economic activities such as mineral and energy extraction.

Question 4

What are the geopolitical implications of ice cover changes?

Answer 4

Geopolitical implications of ice cover changes

• Below the ice lies a fortune of unexploited oil and natural gas resources and everyone wants a piece of the melting arctic state: “China is geographically a near arctic state”.
• The melting ice opens up trade paths, fishing grounds and land.
• Regional powers are trying to claim as much land as possible.
• More than half of the arctic coastline is russian territory.
• USA- Alaska, Greenland- Denmark, Canada, Iceland and Norway. International law gives these countries the right to control natural resources in EEZ’s up to 200 nautical miles from their coastlines. The arctic region beyond those boundaries, including the North Pole, is agreed to be “a common heritage of all mankind”. So, it should be held in trust for future generations, protected from exploitation by nations or cooporations.
• However, countries can apply for larger EEZ’s if they can prove that the shallow sea off their coastline goes out further than 200 nautical miles- Norway, Canada and Denmark have already done this- so that when the melting ice opens up all the economic opportunities.
• “The arctic is caught up in larger geopolitical tension betwen NATO and Russia and its the Arctic’s strategic importance for Russia that also leads to the increased military activity in the North”
• Russia has been exercising simulating attacks on NATO targets and then NATO responds with these large-scale exercises that combines military forces from many countries
• China is interested in Arctic science beacuse with this knowledge it is possible to operate in the Arctic.
• Russia’s war against Ukraine has slowed down their interest in the Arctic and they have slowly lost investors- this has made chinese investors worried due to fear of sanctions- EU or US could do this if they cooperate closely with Russia.
• Major oil companies are set against each other
• The US Geological Survey has estimated there is 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of oil waiting to be found inside the Arctic circle.
• The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) warned recently that Moscow is setting up a naval infantry brigade, an air defence division, and a coastal missile system, in outlying archipelagos in the Arctic Ocean.
• All the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean are involved in a kind of land grab, applying for right to license oil and gas by making territorial claims under a UN Law of the Sea Treaty.
• And the Russians have already signalled the importance they attach to the region by planting a flag on the bottom of the ocean at the north pole. The move by veteran Arctic explorer Artur Chilingarov in 2007 caused widespread protest from the rest of the world but Vladimir Putin laughed it off as a bit of theatre.
• The Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico has already cost BP $40bn and left it at one stage close to collapse.While the Shell drilling in the Arctic is in shallower water and lower well pressures, the stakes are much higher. The reputational risks alone convinced Shell’s French rival Total that it should abandon any post-Macondo oil search in the Arctic.

Question 5

What are the impacts on indigenous people?

Answer 5

• More fragile animals that have been hunted here for centuries are moving further north.
• Inuit are too few in numbers to have an effect on the worlds climate but they seem to be part of those most affected by global warming.
• Promotion of new and innovative energy sources in the hope that this will preserve some of the traditional inuit lifestyle
• 500,000 people potentially impacted- their income, culture and traditions depend on an ecologically intactarctic habitat. Toxic substances from oil and gas exploitation can collapse these fragile ecosystems and when absorbed by plankton and planst can disrupt the food chain.
• For example, between 2013 and 2019 there was a 25% increase in arctic traffic. So, more wastewater discharge , oil pollution and underwater noise.
• Their way of life could be extinguished for future generations due to oil pollution
• Health impacts are major:
  
  • Cancer rates increase
  • Acute sensitivity to chemcials
  • Suicide
• Whaling has been going on for centuries in this part of the world and the hundreds of residents who are involved in supporting the various crews tend to be at the centre of opposition to Shell’s Chukchi drilling programme. Whales stand to be the mammals most affected by oil.
• Whaling is not only about culture, but also about survival in a town where supermarket food prices are high as everything used or sold in Barrow has to be airlifted in.
• This is a central issue too for the Inuit Circumpolar Council, which represents 160,000 indigenous peoples from Alaska, through Canada and Greenland to Russia.Aqqaluk Lynge, the chairman of the Council, expressed his worst fears a few years ago when he said: “When I’m lying awake at night, I pray we don’t find oil.”

Question 6

what are the threats and opportunities posed by opening up ocean route-ways and access to ocean bed minerals?

Answer 6

• Russia hopes to extract 6 billion tonnes of crude and 2 trillion cubic metres of gas in the arctic. Russia has planned new airports, marine terminals and 800km of pipelines. This is assuming the arctic has melted enough to ship out the oil via the northern sea route- Vostok project.
• China is hungry for resources because its economic growth is mainly based on heavy industry and it needs a lot of energy and mineral resources.
• The arctic is also part of China’s Belt and road initiative- “the polar silk road”, where the construction of a vast network of railways, highways and ports will allow china to transport goods and resources around the world
• However, the real estimates of oil and gas and minerals within the arctic is unknown and it has been found that many scientists guesses have been turned into economic facts through the media- it is “highly uncertain”.
• For example, between 2013 and 2019 there was a 25% increase in arctic traffic. So, more wastewater discharge , oil pollution and underwater noise. This disrupts wildlife while chemical pollution impacts the health of fragile ecosystems.
• Most ships use heavy fuel oil which is banned in the Antarctic but allowed in the Arctic. Due to the cold water, oil spills dont break up into smaller droplets. This is ususally very hard to cleanuo due to the isolation of the area.
• Heavy oil fuel is also black carbon and so when spilt will cover the white snow and ice and increase the albedo effect- positive feedback loop.
• The Arctic council wants to connect existing MPA’s and establish new ones in close cooperation with indigenous people
• Shell plans to drill for oil in the arctic which could spray 150 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere- this has only been made possible due to global warming
• The town of Barrow, most northern point of the US, has had shell settle here for uses of the arctic- BP and others have been producing oil at Prudhoe bay down the coast east from Barrow

Question 7

What management of the arctic through international organisations?

Answer 7

• The largest arctic mission ever, MOSAIC, proved that humans can pull together- scientists from 20 countries, including Russia, worked peacefully together to investigate climate change in the Arctic.
• Canada prohibits offshore oil drilling in MPA’s and Greenland banned oil exploitation in 2021. The US has suspended oil and gas leases in Alaskas Arctic National Wildlife Refuge but pressure is growing to drill here to secure energy supplies.
• Arctic Council- promotes sustainable devlopment and environmental protection in the region by providing assesments and clear recommendations on action to be carried out in Arctic states. But these are only recommendations and it is up to the state. For example, the council says that defining shipping routes could minimize negative impacts on coastal communities and that black carbon pollution can be reduced by moving away from fossil fuel powered transportation.
• Central Arctic Ocean Fishing Moratorium- signed in 2021 by US, Russia, China, the EU and other countries. Aim to protect areas from commercial fishing
• Inuit Circumpolar Council- strengthen unity among inuit in the arctic region, promote their rights, encourage long temr protective policies and create partnerships and relations with this.
• Saami Council- promote sámi rights and inetersts. The council collaborates with Arctic states for environmental protection and sustainable development in the arctic.