CC essays Flashcards
CC & synoptic essays (38 cards)
The policies to manage national population change are more successful than those used to manage CC. To what extent do you agree?
Range of challenges, which are complex & policies used & success of these depends on the place & the political will. In theory would expect population to be more successful as only delivered at a national scale. CC – includes adaptation and mitigation – adaptation at the smallest scale – tailored to specific place & usually more successful if finance available. Mitigation – COP – global scale & difficult to achieve.
1. Thailand & anti natalist
2. France & Pro natalist
3.Adaptation - range - Sundarbans.
4. Mitigation - COP
Successful population policy - Thailand
Power to adapt to population growth shown in Thailand
1969 6.5 fertility & by 2019 1.5 children – contraception 16-73%……
Mr.Condom man – Economist
1.Mothers – ensure everyone has access to contraception – trained shop keeper.
2. Religion – blessed the condoms
3. Education – fun games – educated about sexual health.
4. Vasectomies
5. Military – radios
6. Micro finance schemes – only available to women if using contraception.
France - Pro-natalist policy - is it really working?
1939 – Code de la famille – aim to increase fertility rate to just above replacement level. Use incentives ( baby bonus, tax incentives & free subsidized creche), paternity leave..
UN stated not going to reach goals, only 0.6mn increase expected 2030 – 2050. It is costing billions of euros and the govenrment also needs to support an ageing population. Paternity leave is also costing companies as it has been extended to 25 days 7 up to 32 days if multiple children.
Adaptation - Sundarbans - BRAC, Goalbari & Mangrove Action Project.
local scale effective – Sundarbans – but is it only in the short term?
UN women & BRAC – 30 rural communities – 19,000 supported & resilience increased. 10yrs boat classrooms – 500 boats & housed 15,000 children.
Goalbari – floating farms outside Dhaka – women’s coop, collecting savings and then providing small loans, can buy assets – livestock & raised housing of 1.2mn.
Mangrove Action project ( US NGO) – works with local NGOs – workshops in 6 rural schools – educates legacy in schools how under threat and why need to protect/benefits. Also encourages and trains how to restore mangroves.
Mitigation - Global
Intended national Determined Contributions ( INDCs) not ambitious enough. Leaders can change e.g. Obama & Trump – slips down agenda. No one really held accountable. No country meeting target of 1.5 degrees. Statement of intent. Renewables can’t yet fill the gap & geoengineering expensive
The growth of the middle class will inevitably accelerate climate change.
Intro – People with a disposable income – spend on consumer goods & at upper end cars/holidays. Definition varies but can be defined at $10,000+
1. Yes - China -
2. No - cities and govenrments can mitigate.
3.Already accelerated & experiencing positive feedback loops?
Yes, Middle Class are accelerating CC.
1 in 5 middle class in China. China – No.1 carbon polluter in 2020, disposable income has increased, more driving cars and meat consumption has gone up 150%. Agriculture large contributor to GHG emissions – deforestation of rainforest for cattle & feed, plus methane ( 120kg per cow per year). 800mn Amazonian trees felled for beef. Manufacturing & factory emissions.
No, Middle Class don’t need to accelerate have ability to mitigate.
cities can mitigate – green roofs – Vancouver and green buildings – Milan. Public transport – cycle lanes – Tervuren. More educated and wealthier can afford in green technology. COP conferences, social media & NGOs.
China is also the leader green technology ( solar/wind) – investing the most and x4 that of USA.
UK - 2010 7% renewables and today over 40%. Want to redyce 1990 emissions by 68% by 2030. £1bn set aside for renewables and £500mn on top for offshore wind.
Has it already accelerated & Middle Class only adding?
Has it already accelerated & are we not already experiencing positive feedback naturally amplifies – Permafrost, ocean, Amazon. Have we already reached a tipping point?
Changes in the global energy balance are primarily the result of natural processes rather than human activity. To what extent do you agree with this statement?
Intro: Global energy balance is the relationship between incoming shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation. The balance has changed over both the long and short term due to events like glacial periods, and the present day enhanced GHE.
1. Natural Processes- short term =volcano - months/years & sun spots - decades, Long term =Milankovitch cycles.
2. Human Processes
3. Feedback loops
Natural Process - Short Term
Short term ( months & years) – Volcanic eruptions – 1991 Pinatubo – ash and dust reflected solar radiation. Average temp fell 0.5 for 2 yrs.
Short term ( decades) – Sun spots ( solar flares) where there are more higher temp. Cycle btw low and high activity occurs over 11yrs. Can be longer Mini Ice age – lasted 70yrs – few sun spots – frost fairs on Thames river.
Natural Process - Long term
( 10,000-100,000yrs) Milankovitch cycles – changes in the orbit ( orbital forcings). Eccentricity – changes from circular to elliptical, obliquity – tilt changes due to gravitational pull of planets & precession – wobbles slowly- changes axes. Combined together they cause long term changes – glacial periods and interglacial periods.
Human Processes
Last 150yrs warmed and C02 has risen exponentially due to humans. 2/3 warming occurred since 1975.
Industrial Revolution – more dependent on fossil fuel energy, globalization & trade, methane x30 more potent than C02 – released from landfills, cows. 25% GHEs from agriculture. Cement 1000kg = 900kg C02 ( 5% of all emissions).
Feedback loops
Natural – but have been influenced by humans – albedo & oceans & Permafrost & methane.
Conclusion
Natural forcings did cause significant changes in the past resulting in ice ages… but when looking at the hockey stick graph we can see that natural forcings are too weak to explain this recent rise in temperatures.
“Climate change will eventually become the main reason for human migration.”
To what extent do you agree with this statement?
Define - migration & climate change
Address command word & subject: To what extent – depends on time & place & there are a range of causes.
1. CC main factor
2. CC factor but generally combination of factors.
3. Conflict often main factor.
Conclusion – generally many factors contribute to human migration, and main factor will change with time and place – things may change in future if reach tipping points
CC major cause of migration.
UN est 10mn people from Africa, S. Asia and elsewhere have migrated or been displaced by environmental degradation, weather related disasters & desertification in the last 20yrs.
UN predicts a further 150mn people may have to move in the next 50 years and has identified 28 countries at extreme risk from CC. Of these, 22 are in Africa.
Dozens of islands in the Indian Sundarbans region are being regularly flooded.
The Maldives is at threat from rising sea levels.
Bangladesh is the most vulnerable large country, with 60% of its land less than 5m above sea level.
Red Cross estimated 400 weather related disasters annually result in forced migration.
CC causing migration in Bangladesh - facts
Last 10yrs 700,000 Bangladeshis were displaced on average each year & number spikes in yrs with large cyclones, like 2009’s Cyclone Aila, which displaced millions of people and killed more than 200.
No. of Bangladeshis displaced by impacts of CC could reach 13.3 million by 2050,
CC isn’t the only cause of migration - normally a combination of factors which cause people to move.
N.Nigeria - edge Sahel - more frequent droughts, desertification spreading & unreliable rains, but also Boko Haram ( 2020 300 students abducted) & bandits.
Plus 2012 floods forced 7mn to move. In ottal has 2.5mn IDPs.
Eritrea - arid nation - more frequent droughts (2016 - famine), desertification…but also forced military service, restrictions on movement speech & no freedom of press.
“The impacts on migration and health are likely to be the more destabilising consequences of global climate change” Discuss the extent to which you agree with this statement .
Introduction - Define key terms: migration, health & climate change
Uncertainty in the future if reach 1.5 or 2 degrees above industrial – tipping points….
CC affects water and food….
Address command word & subject: To what extent – depends on time & place & there are a range of causes.
Outline main factors that will structure essay – will investigate the scale affected by these two factors –1. Health national & global 2. Migration - national & regional 3. cannot ignore water/food - combination.
Major reason currently - conflict.
Living in a multi polar world, which is more unstable - Currenlty major conflicts raging around the world - Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan ( over 8mn displaced), Haiti, Ethiopia..
Ukraine - 14mn people forced to migrate in 1st 3months of conflict (30% of population). It is though 80% of Palestinians are internall displaced.
Migration - huge impact nationally
Impacts can be seen at a National scale – causing strain on urban centres like Dhaka.
Last 10yrs 700,000 Bangladeshis were displaced on average each year & number spikes in yrs with large cyclones, like 2009’s Cyclone Aila, which displaced millions of people and killed more than 200.
No. of Bangladeshis displaced by impacts of CC could reach 13.3 million by 2050.
Dozens of islands in Sundarbans regularly flood and suffer from salt water intrusion.
Dhaka 22mn & growing 3% a year. Many live in slums (2mn) and work in informal sector e.g. Rickshaw riders 500,000 & many recycle waste on dumps in the city.
Pollution ( traffic, health impacts & conflict/violence over lack . A lot of violence directed towards women.
Lack of resources & poverty - Water lorries cannot meet the needs in Dhaka – acute shortages of water.
Migration huge impact - regionally
But can also be seen on a larger scale - We are already seeing massive numbers of economic migrants escaping regions in Sub-Saharan Africa, many of whom are looking for a better life, but in reality are fleeing poverty rought on by competition for resources and environmental stress. Climate change is only likely to exacerbate this, further destabilising and over stretching services in urban centres in the region – regional scale – EU - 190,000 reached S. Europe & over 133,000 arrived in Italy Jan-Sept 23. Huge pressure on Italy & Greece – EU had to agree new funding. Dividing communities
Health implications
wide range of health impacts – vector borne diseases – Malaria to spread
HICs can’t escape the impacts – only need to look at Europe heatwave 2003 – 35,000 died.….national impacts – Zika possibly UK 240 and Dengue by 2050.
Health tends to be destabilising at a national level & even global level in the future whereas migration can have huge regional impacts – EU..