Chapter 1 Flashcards

(76 cards)

1
Q

Hindsight bias is:

A

The tendency for people to think they “knew it all along,” believing in hindsight that they could have foreseen the outcome of a situation.

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2
Q

Overconfidence is:

A

The tendency to be more confident than correct—to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. (An overestimation of our ability to make accurate judgments.)

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3
Q

Why, after friends start dating, do we often feel that we knew they were meant to be together?

A

Because of hindsight bias. It may be obvious in hindsight how compatible our friends were. When we realize this, we have a tendency to believe we could have foreseen that they would end up together.

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4
Q

What are three powerful tendencies that cause flaws in our commonsense thinking?

A

Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events.

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5
Q

What is the scientific method?

A

“A self-correcting process for evaluating ideas with observation and analysis.” A self-correcting process for finding answers. The process begins with a theory, which leads to a testable hypothesis, which leads to research and observation.

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6
Q

What are the three qualities of a scientific attitude?

A

Curiosity, skepticism, and humility.

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7
Q

What is a theory?

A

A theory is an explanation that organizes and summarizes our observations about something and produces testable predictions about it.

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8
Q

What is a hypothesis?

A

A testable prediction.

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9
Q

What is an operational definition?

A

A measurable, carefully worded definition of a research procedure or concept that allows a study to be replicated.

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10
Q

What is replication?

A

Repeating an experiment with different subjects, materials, or circumstances, to see if the original findings can be repeated across different situations.

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11
Q

What can cause a replication failure?

A

Sample sizes being too small.

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12
Q

What is preregistration?

A

When a psychologist publicly shares information about a planned study before it happens, an act of transparency which prevents them from altering the hypothesis after the results.

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13
Q

What is exploratory research?

A

Gathering and analyzing data for the sake of inspiring potential theories that will later be tested with confirmatory research.

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14
Q

What is meta-analysis?

A

Synthesizing the results of many studies.

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15
Q

What does a good theory do?

A

It summarizes and organizes a set of observations about something and implies hypotheses that allow us to make predictions about it. It may also stimulate further research.

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16
Q

Why is replication important?

A

Replication is confirmation! When the results of research can be replicated it increases confidence in the reliability of the results.

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17
Q

What distinguishes experimental research methods from descriptive or correlational research methods?

A

Experimental research methods involve the manipulation of factors by the experimenters to find out what effect they have.

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18
Q

We cannot assume that case studies always reveal general principles that apply to all of us. Why not?

A

Because a case study might record an unusual and unique case that isn’t representative of the larger population. A heavy smoker who lives to 90 years old provides and interesting case study, but the reality is that most heavy smokers will not live that long. We can’t be certain that what applies to one individual or group will apply to everyone.

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19
Q

What is naturalistic observation?

A

A descriptive research method of recording observations made in a natural environment, without any interference by the researcher.

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20
Q

What is a case study?

A

A descriptive research method that seeks general principles through the study of an individual or group.

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21
Q

What is a survey?

A

A descriptive research method for collecting self-reported data about a particular group. This usually involves asking questions of a representative, random sample of the group being researched.

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22
Q

What is sampling bias?

A

The tendency to generalize based on a few unrepresentative examples (such as when a couple of angry emails have more influence on our understanding of our performance than a statistical evaluation across all situations.)

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23
Q

What is a representative sample?

A

A sample that represents the entire group you are researching without surveying the entire group.

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24
Q

What is a random sample?

A

A sample that represents an entire population by giving each member of that population equal likelihood of being included in the sample.

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25
Can you compensate for an unrepresentative sample of people by increasing the sample size?
No.
26
How can pollsters assess the accuracy of their sampling?
By including unrelated questions (such as marital status) that can be compared to government statistics.
27
What are the advantages and disadvantages of naturalistic observation?
It doesn't control for every variable that may influence behavior or explain the cause of what is being observed. However, the range of phenomena that can be described using naturalistic observation, especially in an era of social media, is vast and revealing, and can stimulate further research.
28
What is an unrepresentative sample, and how do researchers avoid it?
An unrepresentative sample is a sample of a population that doesn't represent the entire population. Researchers avoid this through random sampling, which gives all members of a population an equal likelihood of being surveyed.
29
What is correlation?
A measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables, and thus how well they predict each other.
30
What is the correlation coefficient?
A statistical measure of how closely correlated two things are, from (-1.00 to +1.00).
31
What is a variable?
Anything that varies and can be measured.
32
What is a scatterplot?
A graph displaying a group of dots. Each dot represents the relationship between two variables. The slope of the dots indicates whether there is a positive or negative correlation between the two variables. The more scattered the dots, the weaker the correlation.
33
What is a positive correlation?
When the scores for two variables increase proportionate to one another. (When an increase in one variable correlates with an increase in another variable.)
34
What is a negative correlation?
When the score for one variable decreases in proportion to the score for the other variable increasing. (When an increase in one variable correlates with a decrease in another.)
35
Is a negative correlation weaker than a positive correlation?
No.
36
What is an illusory correlation?
The belief that there is a relationship between two things when none exists, or that there is a stronger relationship between two things than there actually is.
37
What is regression toward the mean?
The tendency for things to return to average after fluctuating towards extremes.
38
What is an experiment?
A research method intended to explain cause and effect by manipulating one or more independent variables to observe how the dependent variable will be effected.
39
What is an experimental group?`
The group exposed to treatment during an experiment.
40
What is an independent variable?
The variable of interest in an experiment, the effect of which is being manipulated and studied.
41
What is a dependent variable?
In an experiment, the variable that is subject to change due to manipulation of the independent variable, which is measured to determine the experiment's outcome.
42
What is a control group?
The group that is not exposed to treatment during an experiment. The outcome of the treatment is evaluated based on a comparison between the experimental group and the control group.
43
What is random assignment?
When there is an equal chance for participants in a study to end up being assigned to either the control group or the experimental group, preventing any pre-existing differences between the groups from effecting the outcome.
44
What is a double-blind procedure?
An experiment in which neither the participants or the people administering treatment know which group is receiving treatment, in order to control for the placebo effect.
45
What measures do researchers use to prevent the placebo effect from confusing their results?
Randomly assigning participants to an experimental group, which receives treatment, or a control group, which receives placebo. Double-blind procedures ensure that the beliefs of the researchers and participants don't influence the results. The outcome of the placebo group is compared to the outcome of the treatment group to determine the efficacy of the treatment.
46
What is informed consent?
When participants have enough information to make an informed choice about whether or not to participate in research.
47
What is debriefing?
Explaining the research to participants after the research is completed, including information about how the researchers may have deceived the participants.
48
What is a measure of central tendency?
One score that represents a set of scores. A measure of central tendency acts as a summary of the data.
49
What is the mode?
The simplest measure of central tendency, measuring the score or scores that occur most often.
50
What is the mean?
The arithmetic average score, obtained by dividing the sum of all the scores by the total number of scores.
51
What is the median?
The middle score in a distribution - the 50th percentile. Half the scores will be above the median and half will be below it.
52
When the measure of central tendency being reported is the mean, what do you need to watch out for when basing conclusions off of it?
That the mean isn't being distorted by a handful of unusual scores.
53
What is the range?
The gap between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution.
54
Why is the range of scores a crude estimate of variation?
A small number of extreme scores will create a deceptively large range.
55
What is the standard deviation?
A measure of the variability of scores around the mean score. (A computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score). How much scores deviate from the mean.
56
What is a normal curve?
A symmetrical, bell-shaped curve, with most of the scores clustering around the mean. Also called a normal distribution. It is so common when displaying large collections of data that it is referred to as "normal".
57
The average of a distribution of scores is:
The mean.
58
The score that shows up most often is:
The mode.
59
The score right in the middle of a distribution (half the scores above it; half below) is:
The median.
60
We determine how much scores vary around the average in a way that includes information about the RANGE of scores (difference between highest and lowest) by using the:
Standard deviation formula.
61
What are the two measures of variation?
The range and the standard deviation.
62
What is the null hypothesis?
The assumption made at the beginning of a statistical test that no differences exist between the groups being studied.
63
What is statistical significance?
"A statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance" if the null hypothesis were true. Helps to evaluate the level of certainty one can have about the results.
64
How does effect size (the strength of the relationship between two variables) determine statistical significance?
When the averages from two samples are reliable, any difference between them is likely to be significant. If the difference between the two populations is large, this is also likely to be significant.
65
What is a p-value?
An indication of the probability of the null hypothesis.
66
Does a statistically nonsignificant result mean that there are no differences between the groups being studied?
No. It indicates uncertainty about the differences.
67
What are descriptive statistics?
Statistics that summarize data.
68
What are inferential statistics?
Statistics that determine if the "data can be generalized to other populations."
69
Which of the three measures of central tendency is most easily distorted by a few very high or very low scores?
The mean.
70
The standard deviation is the most useful measure of variation in a set of data because it tells us:
"How much individual scores differ from the mean."
71
When can we say that the difference between two populations is likely to be statistically significant?
"When sample averages are reliable and the difference between them is large."
72
The illusion that uncontrollable events are correlated with our actions is facilitated by a phenomenon known as:
Regression to the mean.
73
If IQ scores are normally distributed, having a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15, approximately what percentage of people have IQ scores somewhere between 70 and 130?
95
74
A correlation between physical attractiveness and dating frequency of +0.60 would indicate that
less frequent dating is associated with lower levels of physical attractiveness.
75
To understand the unusual behavior of an adult client, a clinical psychologist carefully investigates the client's current life situation and his physical, social-cultural, and educational history. Which research method has the psychologist used?
The case study.
76
Approximately what percentage of the cases represented by the normal curve fall between ‒3 and +3 standard deviations from the mean?
100