Chapter 1 Flashcards
(76 cards)
Hindsight bias is:
The tendency for people to think they “knew it all along,” believing in hindsight that they could have foreseen the outcome of a situation.
Overconfidence is:
The tendency to be more confident than correct—to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments. (An overestimation of our ability to make accurate judgments.)
Why, after friends start dating, do we often feel that we knew they were meant to be together?
Because of hindsight bias. It may be obvious in hindsight how compatible our friends were. When we realize this, we have a tendency to believe we could have foreseen that they would end up together.
What are three powerful tendencies that cause flaws in our commonsense thinking?
Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events.
What is the scientific method?
“A self-correcting process for evaluating ideas with observation and analysis.” A self-correcting process for finding answers. The process begins with a theory, which leads to a testable hypothesis, which leads to research and observation.
What are the three qualities of a scientific attitude?
Curiosity, skepticism, and humility.
What is a theory?
A theory is an explanation that organizes and summarizes our observations about something and produces testable predictions about it.
What is a hypothesis?
A testable prediction.
What is an operational definition?
A measurable, carefully worded definition of a research procedure or concept that allows a study to be replicated.
What is replication?
Repeating an experiment with different subjects, materials, or circumstances, to see if the original findings can be repeated across different situations.
What can cause a replication failure?
Sample sizes being too small.
What is preregistration?
When a psychologist publicly shares information about a planned study before it happens, an act of transparency which prevents them from altering the hypothesis after the results.
What is exploratory research?
Gathering and analyzing data for the sake of inspiring potential theories that will later be tested with confirmatory research.
What is meta-analysis?
Synthesizing the results of many studies.
What does a good theory do?
It summarizes and organizes a set of observations about something and implies hypotheses that allow us to make predictions about it. It may also stimulate further research.
Why is replication important?
Replication is confirmation! When the results of research can be replicated it increases confidence in the reliability of the results.
What distinguishes experimental research methods from descriptive or correlational research methods?
Experimental research methods involve the manipulation of factors by the experimenters to find out what effect they have.
We cannot assume that case studies always reveal general principles that apply to all of us. Why not?
Because a case study might record an unusual and unique case that isn’t representative of the larger population. A heavy smoker who lives to 90 years old provides and interesting case study, but the reality is that most heavy smokers will not live that long. We can’t be certain that what applies to one individual or group will apply to everyone.
What is naturalistic observation?
A descriptive research method of recording observations made in a natural environment, without any interference by the researcher.
What is a case study?
A descriptive research method that seeks general principles through the study of an individual or group.
What is a survey?
A descriptive research method for collecting self-reported data about a particular group. This usually involves asking questions of a representative, random sample of the group being researched.
What is sampling bias?
The tendency to generalize based on a few unrepresentative examples (such as when a couple of angry emails have more influence on our understanding of our performance than a statistical evaluation across all situations.)
What is a representative sample?
A sample that represents the entire group you are researching without surveying the entire group.
What is a random sample?
A sample that represents an entire population by giving each member of that population equal likelihood of being included in the sample.