Chapter 4: Financial Statement Analysis and Forecasting Flashcards Preview

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Flashcards in Chapter 4: Financial Statement Analysis and Forecasting Deck (90):
1

What is the DuPont System made up of?

It is made up of 3 different ratios 1. Net profit margin (NI/REV), 2. Asset Turnover Ratio (Rev/TA) 3. Leverage TA/SE

2

Why use the DuPont system

it breaks apart the ROE (NI/SE_ in order to get a better idea what affected the numbers. "decompose ROE"

3

why does the DuPont system provide a good starting point for any financial analysis?

shows that financial strength come from many sources. 1. profitability 2. asset utilization 3. leverage

4

What does financial leverage mean?

magnification of both profits and losses

5

What are the 3 major leverage ratios that relate to financial leverage?

1. stock ratio 2. flow ratio 3. other ratio *******

6

What do stock ratios indicate

the amount of debt outstanding a particular time

7

What are the stock ratios

1. leverage ratio 2. debt ratio 3. debt to equity ratio

8

What is the formula for the leverage ratio

total assets / shareholder's equity

9

what is the formula for debt ratio

total liabilities / total assets

10

What is the formula for debt to equity ratio

total debt / se

11

what does the debt ratio indicate

the proportion of total assets financed by debt a the balance sheet date

12

what does the debt-equity ratio mean

the proportion that total debt represents in relationship to SE (both common stock and retained earnings) at the balance sheet date

13

What are the income statement flow ratios

1. times interest earned (TIE) ratio 2. Cash flow to debt ratio

14

How do you calculate times interest earned ratio (TIE)

EBIT / Interest expense

15

How do you calculate cash flow to debt ratio

cash flow form operations / total debt

16

what does times interest earned ratio show

it shows the number of times the firm's pre-tax income (EBIT) exceeds its fixed financial obligations to its lenders

17

What does cash flow to debt ratio show

it measures how long it would take to pay off a firm's debt using cash flow from operations

18

What are the efficiency ratios

1. degree of total leverage (DTL) 2. break-even point 3. gross profit margin 4. operating margin

19

what do efficiency ratios measure

measure how efficiently a dollar of sales is turned into profits - gives insight into the company's cost structure - helps to determine if problems exist with either variable or fixed costs

20

how do you calculate the degree of total leverage (DTL)

CM / earnings before taxes

21

how do you calculate the break-even point

fixed costs / CM

22

How do you calculate gross profit margin

Revenue - COS / Revenue

23

How do you calculate operating margin

operating income / revenue

24

What does degree of total leverage measure

measures exposure of profits to changes in sales - the greater the DTL the greater the leverage effect

25

what does break-even point show

it estimates how much you need to sell in order to cover all costs (both fixed costs and variable costs) - usually increases as the use of fixed costs increases

26

what does gross profit margin show

shows the proportion of sales that are available to cover fixed period costs and financing expenses after variable costs have been paid

27

What does a declining gross profit margin mean

it raises concerns about the company's ability to control variable costs, such as direct materials and labour

28

what does operating margin measure

it measures the cumulative effect of both variable and period costs on the ability of the company to turn sales into operating profits and cover interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)

29

What are the productivity ratios

1. receivable turnover ratio 2. average collection period (ACP) 3. inventory turnover ratio 4. average days sale sin inventory (ADSI) 5. fixed asset turnover

30

what do productivity ratios measure

the firm's ability to generate sales from its assets

31

excessive investment in assets with little or no increase in sales reduces the rate of return on

both assets (ROA) and equity (ROE)

32

How do you calculate the receiver turnover

receiver turnover = Revenue / AR

33

what does the receivable turnover measure

measures the sales generated by every dollar of receivables

34

how do you calculate average collection period (ACP)

average collection period = A/R / Average daily credit sales = 365/ receivable turnover

35

what does average collection period estimate

estimates the number of days it takes a firm to collect on its A/R Example If ACP is 40 days, and the firm’s credit policy is net 30, clearly customers are not paying according to the firm’s policies - There may be concerns about the quality of customer’s credit and wheat might happen if economic conditions deteriorate

36

what does inventory turnover measure

the number of times ending inventory was "turned over" or sold during the year - involves both stocks and flow values - strongly a function of ending inventory

37

managers often try to improve its inventory turnover ratio as they approach year end through

inventory reduction strategies (cash and carry sales, inventory clearance etc)

38

how do you calculate inventory turnover

inventory turnover = COGA/ inventory or Rev/ inventory

39

when COGS is not publicly available, the inventory turnover ration can be estimated using what

sales(Revenue) instead rev/inventory - not ideal - because while COGS is based on inventoried cost, sales includes a profit margin that may not be comparable to other firms

40

what is ADSI

average days sales in inventory

41

what does ADSI estimate

the number of days of sales tied up in inventory - based on inventory values

42

how do you calculate ADSI

avg. days sales in inventory = inventory / avg. daily sales = 365/ inventory turnover

43

what is fixed asset turnover

estimates the number of dollars of sales produced by each dollar of next fixed assets

44

how do you calculate fixed asset turnover

fixed asset turnover = sales/net fixed assets

45

what are the liquidity ratios

1. working capital 2. current 3. quick (Acid test)

46

what do liquidity ratios measure

the ability of the firm to meet its financial obligations as they mature using liquid (ie cash and near cash resources)

47

what does working capital measure

the proportion of total assets invested in current assets

48

how do you calculate working capital

current assets / total assets ca/ ta

49

what does the current measure

the number of dollars of current assets for each dollar of current liabilities - estimates the capacity of the firm to meet its financial obligations as they mature

50

how do you calculate current ratio

current assets / current liabilities ca/ cl

51

what does the quick (Acid test) recognize

that inventories and other current assets may be less liquid and in some cases, when liquidated quickly, can result in cash flows that are less than book value - therefore, the quick ratio gives a clearer indication fo the firm's ability to meet its maturing financial obligations out of very liquid current assets

52

what is the calculation for quick ratio

cash + Marketable securities + AR / current liabilities c + MS + AR /CL

53

What is important to note regarding liquidity ratios

- When firms are financially strained and no longer a going concern, accounting values become less valid - Instead, net liquidation values can be estimated by discounting asset values based on their degree of liquidity - Liquid assets are valued at close to or the same as book value - Liquid assets are discounted from book value based on their degree of liquidity - Liabilities are stated in nominal terms, because it takes those dollars to satisfy debt obligations - Preferred stock value is based on residual values, if any residual remains after liquidation

54

What are the valuation ratios

1. Equity book value per share (EVPS) 2. Dividend yield 3. Dividend payout 4. Trailing Price –earnings (P/E) 5. Forward P/E 6. Market-to-book 7. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) multiple

55

what are valuation ratios used for?

- are used to assess how the market is valuing the firm (ie its share price) in relation to its o assets o earnings o profits o dividends

56

what does equity book value per share (EVPS) show

expresses shareholder's equity on a per share basis

57

how do you calculate equity book value per share

book value per share = shareholder's equity / number of shares

58

what does the dividend yield express

the dividend payout as a proportion of the current share price

59

dividend yield can be compared to what

the yield on other investment instruments such as  Bonds or  The stocks of other dividend paying companies

60

how do you calculate dividend yield

dividend per share / price per share DPS / P

61

what is the price-earnings (P/E) ratio

o An earnings multiple based on the most recent earnings o Often used to estimate the value of a stock

62

how do you calculate the price earnings ratio (P/E ratio)

share price / earnings per share P / EPS Example: a stock trading at a P/E multiple of 10 will take 10 years at current earnings to recover its price

63

what is the forward P/E ratio

o Is an earnings multiple based on forecast earnings per share o Often used to estimate the value of a stock for companies with rapid growth in EPS

64

Forward P/E: what do Low P/E shares indicate

regarded as value stocks

65

Forward P/E : what do high p/e shares indicate

regarded as growth stocks

66

how do you calculate the forward P/E

share price/ estimated earnings per share P / EEPS

67

what is market to book ratio

- Estimates the dollars of share price per dollar of book value per share - Given historical cost accounting as the basis for BVPS, the degree to which market value per share exceeds BVPS indicates the value that has been added to the company by management

68

how do you calculate Market-to-book value

share price / book value per share P / BVPS

69

what is EBITDA multiple

- Expresses total enterprise value (TEV) for each dollar of operating income or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA)

70

how do you calculate EBITDA multiple

TEV / EBITDA

71

what is total enterprise value

o An estimate of the market value of the firm o Ie. the market value of both its equity and its debt

72

- Financial managers must produce forecasts of the results of the business plans in order to

1. Determine if the plans will require additional external financing 2. Determine if the plans will produce surplus cash resources that could be distributed to shareholders as dividends 3. Assess financial forecasts to determine if plans are feasible; o If poor results are forecast, management has the opportunity to amend plans in an attempt to produce better results before resources are committed

73

the basis for all financial forecasting is

o The sales forecast and o The most recent balance sheet values are the starting point

74

- Pro Forma (forecast) balance sheets are projected assuming

some relationship with projected sales as a constant percentage of sales

75

- Current liabilities are usually assumed to rise and fall in a

constant percentage with sales, and are called spontaneous liabilities because they change without negotiation with creditors

76

Percentage of sales method involves what

5 steps

77

what are the 5 steps in the percentage sales method

1. Determine the financial policy variables in which you are interested 2. Set all the non-financial policy variables as a percentage of sales 3. Extrapolate the balance sheet based on a percentage of sales 4. Estimate future retained earnings 5. Modify and re-iterate until the forecast makes sense

78

the percentage sales method process most often results in

a balance sheet that does not balance o So a “plug” (or balancing) amount is the external funds required or o The surplus funds forecast

79

Further Improvements to the pro forma balance sheet include

Re-examining asset growth assumptions

 

1. Refinement of the cash forecast

2. Realization that EFR can be offset by marketable securities that can be easily liquidated to finance growth needs

3. Re-examination of assumptions of a/r growth and whether we want to change credit polcies in the context of the forecast macroeconomic and competitive environment

4. Re-examination of inventory management policies taking into account the macroeconomic and competitive environment

5. Realization that increases in net fixed assets is “lumpy” and continuously incremental;

If the firm has excess capacity, it may not need to invest any further in fixed assets until it is forecast to exceed that capacity

 

80

page 12, 13 and part of 14

81

additional improvements to foreceast also include

re-examining assumptions about growth in spontaneous liabilites

82

page 16

ppage 16

83

what is the formula for forecasting

We can express the foregoingpercentage of sales method of forecasting using equations rather than spreadsheets

External financing requirements

EFR: EFR = a x S x g –b x PM x (1+g) x S

Where

a = the treasurer’s financial policy variable, the total invested capital or net assets of the firm as a percentage of its sales

g = sales growth rate

S = current period sales

S x g = next period sales

a X S x g = incremental capital requirement

PM = profit margin on sales

B = payout ratio

1 – b = retention or plowback ratio

84

what is the plowback ratio

??

85

External financing requirements can also be expressed as

a linear function of the sales growth rate (g)

By dividing both sides of equation 4-32 by the current sales level to obtain the next equation

 

EFR / S = -b x PM + (a-b x PM) g

the equation is plotted

 

The sustainable growth rate (g*) occurs where the blue line intersects the horizontal axis

The sustainable growth rate (g*) is the sales growth rate at which

The firm neither generates nor needs external financing

It can sustain its own rate of growth through the reinvestment of its own profits

 

86

what is the formula for sustaninable growth rate

                g* = b x PM / a –b x PM

 

When g = g*

EFR = 0

The firm can finance its own growth with retained earnings

 

When g is less than g*

-EFR is less than 0

- the firm will have surplus funds available after financing its planned growth

87

88

in sustainable growth rate, when g  = g

EFT = 0

the firm can finance its own growth with redidual earnings

89

with sustainable growth rate, when g is greater than g*

EFT is greater than 0

external financing will be required

90

with sustaninable growth rate

when g is less than g*

EFT is less than 0

- the firm wil lhave surplus funds available after financing its planned growth