Chapter 6: Public Opinion

Question 1

Public opinion

Answer 1

citizen’s views on politics and government actions

Question 2

Public opinion matters for what three reasons?

Answer 2

1. citizens’ political actions (voting, contributing to campaigns, writing letters to senators, etc) are driven by their opinions
2. examining public opinion helps explain the behavior of political actors
3. because public opinion is a key to understanding what motivates both citizens and political officials, it can shed light on the reasons for specific policy outcomes

Question 3

What are the 2 types of opinions when considering public opinion?

Answer 3

1. performed opinions
2. latent opinions

Question 4

Performed opinions

Answer 4

broad expressions, like how people think about politics and what they want from government. shaped early in life and remain stable throughout a lifetime

ex. party ID, liberal or conservative ideology, trust in government

Question 5

What is the most important thing to understand about public opinion?

Answer 5

the average person doesn’t maintain a set of fully formed opinions on all political topics: most judgements are latent opinions

Question 6

Latent opinions

Answer 6

opinions that are formed on the spot as needed

ex. answering survey questions or deciding on Election Day how to vote

Question 7

What is an important purpose of performed opinions?

Answer 7

they help people form latent opinions about other questions

ex. many people use party ID to decide about other matters, like the state of the economy. they say things are good if the president is from their party and things are bad if not

Question 8

True or false: people who follow politics closely have more preformed opinions than the average American, whose interest in politics is relatively low

Answer 8

True
Few people are so well informed that they have ready opinions on a wide range of issues, and even when they do, they may not remember every factor that influenced their opinions

Question 9

Opinions vary in intensity. Why does intensity matter?

Answer 9

-it shapes whether and how people act on their opinions
-it is also one reason why government policies sometimes reflect the intense minority opinion, not the weaker opinions held by the majority (ex. gun control laws)

Question 10

Political socialization

Answer 10

the process by which an individual’s political opinions are shaped by other people and the surrounding culture

ex. children develop a liberal or conservative ideology, level of trust in others, class/racial/ethnic identity, and other political opinions based on what they learn from their parents

Question 11

What aspects of socialization can shape political opinions?

Answer 11

-parents
-friends
-people you interact with growing up (teachers, neighbors, etc.)
-taking a civics class in high school
-growing up in a homogenous community
-random interactions (people you meet each day)

Question 12

Are opinions formed through socialization permanent?

Answer 12

NO; in fact, people often respond to events by modifying their opinions, even those developed early in life

Question 13

How do events (from everyday interactions to national events like a mass shooting) shape public opinion?

Answer 13

some events have greater impact on public opinion than others, and some people are more likely than others to change their views

Question 14

When are opinion changes generated by an event or some other new information more likely?

Answer 14

-when an individual is unfamiliar with the event or information yet considers it to be important (since they have no preexisting principles to interpret it)
-people who don’t have strong beliefs are also more likely to change their opinions than are people who hold strong opinions

Question 15

How does group identity affect someone’s opinions?

Answer 15

opinions on many issues are correlated with the state or region where a person grew up or lives (they experienced the same historical events at similar points in their lives or learned political viewpoints from one another)

Question 16

How can group identity be a function of age?

Answer 16

-some ideological opinions are commonly shared between an age group
-opinions differ between different age groups

Question 17

How do group identities shape partisanship?

Answer 17

people may rely on others who “look like” them as a source of opinions

ex. when people are trying to decide between being a Republican or a Democrat, they think about which demographic groups are associated with each party and pick the party that has more members from the groups they identify with

Question 18

Why is it important to examine group variations in public opinion?

Answer 18

candidates and political consultants often formulate their campaign strategies in terms of groups

ex. Democratic candidates target minorities and young voters

Question 19

True or false: group characteristics can be important predictors of some of an individual’s opinions, but they are not the whole story

Answer 19

TRUE
because Americans’ opinions are also a product of their socialization and life experiences, their group characteristics may tell us something about their opinions on some issues but reveal little about their thoughts on other issues

Question 20

Can opinions and changes in opinion be subject to influence by political actors? Why or why not?

Answer 20

yes; partly because Americans look to them for information based on their presumed expertise. if the person’s opinions seem reasonable, you might adopt them as your own

Question 21

People don’t search haphazardly for advice. When do they take account of an expert’s opinions?

Answer 21

only when they generally agree with the expert (perhaps bc they are both conservatives or Democrats or because they have some other basis for thinking their preferences are alike)

ex. Trump’s claims about a “deep state” prob reinforced his supporters’ high levels of distrust of government

Question 22

Political actors actively work to shape public opinion. Why does this not always work?

Answer 22

because politicians are generally seen as advocates for a particular point of view, it is relatively difficult for them to change opinions of people not already sympathetic to their views. if anything, it can harden resistance among some groups

Question 23

When people form opinions on the spot (which is true for most opinions), they are based on ____

Answer 23

considerations: pieces of relevant information from sources like…
-ideology
-party ID
-influence of family and community members
-personal and national events
-group identification
-opinions and actions of politicians

Question 24

What kinds of considerations do people (highly informed politically or not) use when forming opinions?

Answer 24

only considerations that come to mind immediately

Question 25

What are many Americans' opinions mainly centered on?

Answer 25

party ID

Question 26

How are considerations a shortcut for forming opinions without much effort?

Answer 26

a Republican voter is likely to agree with most decisions made by a Republican president and disagree with most decisions made by a Democrat can still lead to inaccurate judgements (like judging state of economy based on president's party affiliation)

Question 27

How did people form political opinions on candidates and presidents a generation ago (when parties were less polarized)? Why is this important?

Answer 27

-presidents: perceptions of economic conditions -candidates: impact of the candidate's personal characteristics (divorce used to be a big no-no) importance: shows party ID is not the only consideration people use to form opinions

Question 28

Why are people's opinions sometimes hard to predict or understand?

Answer 28

most people form the bulk of their opinions on the spot using a wide range of considerations, and we don't know which considerations will come to mind when we ask them what they think

Question 29

Why are opinions easier to understand on the aggregate level?

Answer 29

unique differences in how individuals form beliefs largely cancel each other out, leaving common factors that are important for most people

Question 30

In the current era, presidential approval ratings are mostly driven by ____

Answer 30

partisanship

Question 31

Even if an event is momentous (like a mass shooting or domestic terror attack), shift in public opinion may be quite small and transitory. How come?

Answer 31

such events are only one factor that shapes opinion

Question 32

Why is knowing what's behind someone's opinions on an issue important?

Answer 32

it can help you decide how you feel about that issue and whether or not the other person's argument carries weight

Question 33

Mass surveys

Answer 33

-interviews (typically online) with a relatively small number of people that aim to measure the attitudes of a large *population* -involve *samples*

Question 34

Population

Answer 34

the group of people whom a researcher or pollster wants to study, such as evangelicals, senior citizens, or Americans

Question 35

Focus groups

Answer 35

small groups of people interviewed in a group setting

Question 36

Pros and cons of focus groups

Answer 36

pro: allow respondents to answer questions in their own words con: cannot be used to form conclusions about public opinion across the entire country due to their small size

Question 37

Sampling error

Answer 37

the predicted difference between the average opinion expressed by survey respondents and the average opinion in the population, sometimes called the *margin of error*. increasing # of respondents lowers the sampling error

Question 38

Why do mass surveys typically interview around 1,000 people?

Answer 38

this is the point where adding interviewees provides relatively little improvement in accuracy

Question 39

True or false: large samples (1,000 or more) are much more likely to provide accurate info about population opinions than small ones (fewer than 500)

Answer 39

True

Question 40

Why should you be cautious when you read about small differences in survey responses (like a 51-49 percent split)?

Answer 40

because the % split is smaller than the sampling error, it is unlikely to hold true in the entire population

Question 41

Issue scale

Answer 41

survey response format in which respondents select their answers from a range of positions between two extremes

Question 42

Selection bias

Answer 42

when a sample designed to be random contains too many of some kinds of people and too few of others

Question 43

Measurement error

Answer 43

pollsters think they are asking about one thing, but respondents believe they are being asked about something else ex. ambiguous or poorly worded questions

Question 44

Random digit dialing

Answer 44

generating random telephone numbers, including both listed and unlisted numbers, to reach a representative sample of the population for interviews or surveys

Question 45

Is random digit dialing a good survey method?

Answer 45

most people have phone numbers, so random digit dialing is a good one. however, through this method, surveyors will miss out on people who don’t have phones or choose not to answer them

Question 46

Robo-polls

Answer 46

an automated system phones people and interviews them

Question 47

Push polls

Answer 47

a campaign uses biased survey questions as a way of driving support away from an opponent NOT legitimate polls: used to persuade, not measure opinion

Question 48

True or false: how questions are worded can affect survey results

Answer 48

TRUE: shows how hard it is to accurately measure opinions

Question 49

Social desirability bias

Answer 49

people answering survey questions are less willing to admit to actions or express opinions that they believe their neighbors or society at large would disapprove of, such as racial prejudice

Question 50

How do pollsters address social desirability bias?

Answer 50

-asking questions in multiple ways -verifying answers when possible (ex. checking with county boards of elections to see if respondents who said they voted actually went to the polls) -when there is concern that respondents will try to hide their prejudices, pollsters sometimes frame a question in terms of the entire country rather than the respondent’s own beliefs (ex. asking if the country is ready for a woman president) -asking respondents for a different kind of evaluation—rather than asking whether they like or dislike candidates, pollsters ask whether they would sit down for coffee with them

Question 51

Can attempts to account for the social desirability bias by rephrasing a question introduce new biases?

Answer 51

YES ex. a survey question designed to ask about a sensitive topic might begin with "Some people have argued that..." However, this phrase can produce higher levels of respondent agreement regardless of what is being asked

Question 52

When can inaccurate or outlandish survey results be generated?

Answer 52

-respondents not taking surveys seriously (ex. giving quick, thoughtless responses to end the interview quicker) -respondents forming opinions based on whatever considerations come to mind (can lead to misperceptions)

Question 53

Where might misinformation result from in survey responses?

Answer 53

-respondents using considerations that don't actually provide much info about the topic at hand -politicians making polarizing or extreme statements about an issue, or just yapping about it too much -many supposed facts are actually "contested truths": aka topics/issues where different interpretations of the truth are present

Question 54

When do respondents' ability to express specific opinions, as well as the accuracy of their opinions, rise?

Answer 54

if the survey questions have something to do with their everyday life ex. Americans are more likely to have an accurate sense of the state of the economy than of the military situation in Afghanistan (this is magnified as the respondent considers the economy a more salient issue)

Question 55

When are survey results most likely to be accurate?

Answer 55

when they are based on a simple, easily understood question about a topic familiar to the people being surveyed, and when the survey designers have worked to account for problems in measuring public opinion you can be even more confident if multiple surveys addressing the same topic in different ways and at different times produce similar findings

Question 56

When are survey results most likely to be INaccurate?

Answer 56

if a single survey asks about a complex, unfamiliar topic

Question 57

When are bad times to conduct surveys, as they will produce inaccurate results?

Answer 57

-immediately after an event (ex. survey on gun control taken immediately after a school shooting) -well in advance of the time when the public actually has to act on their preferences (ex. poll about the 2022 midterms taken 2 years prior)

Question 58

When is the best time to conduct a preelection poll (most accurate predictions)?

Answer 58

right before an election

Question 59

How do the ability of preelection polls to predict election outcomes depend on the closeness of the race?

Answer 59

results could change if assumptions about turnout are even slightly off

Question 60

How have new technologies affected surveys?

Answer 60

made them cheaper and easier, allowing groups to poll more often and ask a much wider range of questions

Question 61

For a sample to be accurate, what must be true?

Answer 61

it has to be as random as possible

Question 62

It may seem easy for representatives to simply comply with demands expressed in their constituents' survey responses, but what stands in the way?

Answer 62

poll results are highly sensitive to question wording, timing, and other factors, making it hard to interpret even seemingly clear findings ex. constituents’ support of immigration reform depends on what the reforms look like, which may not be covered in the survey

Question 63

Ideological polarization

Answer 63

sharp differences in Americans’ overall ideas of the size and scope of government

Question 64

Many commentators describe politics in America as highly conflictual, with most Americans holding either liberal or conservative points of view and identifying with one of the two major parties. Is polarization as strong as these commentators think?

Answer 64

not really: while data confirms that Americans disagree on important policy questions, it is too simple to think in terms of a sharply polarized America -typologies are designed to identify disagreements—there are many other issues on which there is consensus among the American public -only a small fraction of the population holds extreme liberal or conservative positions -self-professed moderates may hold relatively extreme preferences, and those who call themselves liberal/conservative may not think that way on all issues

Question 65

How can surveys truly reflect what Americans think and what they want from government?

Answer 65

by collecting data on specific policy questions rather than broad judgments about the liberal or conservative nature of American public opinion

Question 66

Why do political scientists talk so much about high levels of polarization in contemporary America?

Answer 66

mostly refers to how most policy conflicts divide Americans among party lines. the difference between America now and a generation ago is not that we disagree more but that most of our disagreements have Democrats on one side and Republicans on the other—and we are more likely to dislike people who affiliate with the other party

Question 67

What do the majority of Americans think about the government?

Answer 67

that it is not run for the benefit of all the people and that government programs are usually wasteful and inefficient

Question 68

Trust in government has declined a ton, likely due to times of economic or other hardship (mid-2000s to now). How does this affect government?

Answer 68

-makes it harder for elected officials to enact new policies (less trust = more negative evaluations from citizens) -makes citizens less likely to vote for incumbents -raises questions about future of democracy in America

Question 69

Trust in government has a partisan cast. Explain what this means

Answer 69

people are more likely to express trust in the government when someone from their party is serving as president

Question 70

How is it that Americans disapprove of government overall but give relatively high ratings for many government programs?

Answer 70

-low trust in government simply doesn't preclude people from approving of specific government programs -asking about "the government" doesn't have a human face on it. asking about "your representative" does -polarized nature of today's politics means high levels of distrust are almost a given, especially for citizens whose party ID differs from the president's bottom line: **the downward trend in trust is not the result of people being increasingly unhappy with what government actually does**

Question 71

Policy mood

Answer 71

the level of public support for expanding the government's role in society; whether the public wants government action on a specific issue

Question 72

Trends in policy mood reflect a thermostatic model of public opinion. What does this mean?

Answer 72

policy changes in one direction tend to move opinion in the other ex. liberal policy mood in 2020, Democrats enact liberal policies, policy mood shifts in conservative direction

Question 73

Public opinion is often a moving target. What does this mean?

Answer 73

while some beliefs/preferences are stable over time, opinions about specific policies can change from year to year, month to month, or even day to day

Question 74

How do surveys assess the public's policy mood?

Answer 74

by asking citizens about specific policy issues and what they see as the top policy priorities facing the nation

Question 75

What has consistently been ranked a top priority for Americans?

Answer 75

the state of the economy

Question 76

Do Republicans and Democrats ever agree on which issues should be prioritized?

Answer 76

yes! -concerns over jobs and social security are seen as important -little cross-party difference in demand for political reform

Question 77

How do policy priorities explain government inaction on some issues?

Answer 77

if an issue isn't deemed a priority, it simply won't be acted on

Question 78

Public opinion remains highly relevant in American politics, yet government decisions don’t always align with the views of the majority. What does this say about the role of public opinion in policymaking?

Answer 78

this doesn't mean that public opinion is irrelevant—just that the policy-making process is complex

Question 79

It's not always possible to please a majority of citizens. Politicians' willingness to do so depends on what?

Answer 79

-whether the majority is organized into interest groups -how much the politicians care about the issue (and the intensity of the opposition) -most importantly, the details of their personal preferences and the views held by their constituents

Question 80

How does the massive federal assistance to individuals/businesses during COVID speak to the influence of public opinion?

Answer 80

it was enacted largely because of public pressure for relief

Question 81

How do recent failures in repealing Obamacare, enacting immigration reform, or passing new limits on gun ownership speak to the influence of public opinion?

Answer 81

they reflect a lack of public consensus about what the government should do. many Americans wanted policy change, but many were opposed, and even the supporters disagreed on what kinds of changes were best *inaction on these issues is exactly what to expect if public opinion is real and relevant to what happens in politics*

Question 82

Why should public opinion be significant to **you**?

Answer 82

it can tell what the federal government is going to do (or why it's not doing what you think it should be doing)

Question 83

How is public support a kind of political currency?

Answer 83

when elected officials have public support on their side, it makes it much easier to get things done

Question 84

In many ways public opinion has become harder to measure and predict, despite many advances in technology and statistical sophistication. Why?

Answer 84

among other reasons, because it's increasingly difficult to get a random, representative, and reliable sample of survey respondents in an age where most of us have cell phones but we block calls we don't recognize (and we can't be bothered to answer questions without some sort of incentive like a gift card)

Question 85

Suffrage

Answer 85

right to vote

Question 86

Zaller's RAS Model

Answer 86

Receive, Accept, Sample the opinions that you express reflect considerations that you have received (heard or read about), accepted (if they are consistent with prior beliefs), and sampled from (based on what's salient at the time)

Question 87

Cognitive dissonance

Answer 87

mental discomfort that results from holding two conflicting beliefs

Question 88

Ambivalence

Answer 88

having mixed or contradictory feelings or attitudes towards something

Question 89

House effects

Answer 89

systematic tendencies for polling firms to favor either the Democratic or Republican candidate