chapter 7: power Flashcards
Power: Detail vaccine diplomacy.
-While the West, during covid, focused on providing their own citizens with vaccines, some powers used this as an opportunity to increase international influence.
-Serbia had the fasted vaccination rate in continental Europe, having acquired them from Russia & China. They then became a hub for neighbouring countries, using it as an opportunity to increase geopolitical standing.
-China publicised their vaccine campaign, even incorporating it into the Chinese Belt & Road Initiative. They used middle-eastern and African summits to offer vaccines and investment.
-This is essentially a key example of states using soft power to increase influence.
Power: What are some different types of power?
-Soft: Persuasion. States that persuade others to emulate their views, by making their own style of culture/politics attractive.
-Smart: A combination of the 2, used in the Obama Administration.
-Hard: Coercion. Power that can be used to compel individuals/states to another’s will, with no other option. This normally comes through physical (military/economic sanctions).
Power: What affects the choice of power you use?
-Situation.
-Capability.
-Opportunity.
Power: How can we measure the power of a state?
-Economic Power
-Military Power
-Cultural Power
-Diplomatic Power
-Population Power
-Structural Power
-Regional Power
-Resource & Development Power
-Natural Resource Power
Power: Give some stats about each of the BRICS, showing that they are emerging.
-B: 12th largest GDP in 2020, and 15th largest military expenditure. They have rich natural resources, like gold, iron, uranium, and petroleum.
-R: 11th largest GDP (2020), and 4th largest military expenditure. Has very strong oil, gas, and coal resources, making them an energy superpower.
-I: 2nd largest population, 6th largest GDP, and 3rd largest military expenditure, in 2020. They also have a supply of nuclear weapons.
-C: 2nd largest GDP, largest population, and 2nd largest military expenditure, in 2020. Has he third largest proportion of natural resources, behind US & Russia.
-S: Had nuclear weapons, but dismantled them after signing the NPT. South Africa has many natural resources, like diamonds, gold, and silver.
Balance: Outline how the balance of power has changed since 1945.
-Pre-WW2, the world was Multi-polar (which arguably contributed to the break out of war).
-1945-1989: Bipolar, Cold War.
-1989- Early 2000s: Unipolarity, US hegemon.
-2000s-Present: Arguably becoming more multipolar (US, China, Russia etc).
Balance: What is a Great Power? A Super Power? An Emerging Power?
-Great: Significant military outreach, involvement in IGOs, and strong economies.
-Super: Essentially the same as great, but more advanced through technology. They are often the centre of an ideology.
-Emerging: A state that has not met all the criteria of a great power, but still has a high level of regional influence.
Balance: In what ways was the Cold War NOT an era of peace?
Not
-Bipolarity arguable destabilises global scene, as both powers build up defence in response to the other. There is therefore massive suspicion and threat, meaning there is no lasting peace. Demonstrated by US paranoia about missile gap, which led to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
-1983, USSR shot down a South Korean Airliner, which could’ve provoked a military response from US.
-Also, Cold War was a period of proxy wars (Vietnam, 1963-75) - can it be a period of peace if this is simultaneously happening?
Balance: In what ways was the Cold War an era of peace?
Peaceful
-The 2 evenly balanced powers meant that no side was capable of eliminating the other, and both sides appreciated the limits of what they could achieve.
-After Stalin’s death, 1953, the emergence of diplomatic relations between the two nations meant a greater extent of peace.
-Nixon & Brezhnev agreed to a Strategic Arms Limitations Treaty in 1972, which slowed the build up of arms.
Balance: Give some key events in the Cold War.
1962: USSR places nuclear missiles in Cuba, leading to Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy responds with a ‘quarantine’ of Cuba. This is the most unstable period of the Cold War, and Vietnam breaks out the following year.
-1975: Ford & Brezhnev agree to the Helsinki Accords, which guarantees the borders of Europe. This demonstrated that Mutually Assured Destruction can increase stability.
-1980: Election of Reagan. His first administration massively increased Cold War tensions, and cruise missiles are placed in Western Europe.
-1986: Reagan & Gorbachev, Reykjavik Summit.
Balance: What happened with the fall of the Soviet Union?
-Gorbachev was a more radical leader, and argued for significant reform, withdrawing troops, negotiating with the US, and pursuing policy of Glasnost & Perestokia.
-However, Gorbachev’s reform was not quick enough for the appetite of the USSR, and as momentum gathered, more power was given to the constituent parts of the USSR.
-Russia, led by Boris Yeltsin was the largest of the parts.
-Then, in 1991, when communist hardliners tried to overthrow Gorbachev, Yeltsin defeated this coup, but then declared Russia independent.
-This led to the collapse of the USSR, which was formally dissolved on 26th December 1991.
-This led to the creation of 15 new countries, with massive political & economic problems, with divided national identities.
Balance: Discuss the example of Georgia, as a post-USSR state.
-Georgia emerged after the fall of the USSR, but tensions with Russia remained long term.
-Georgia went through a period of sharp economic decline.
-They have also expressed desire to be a member of the EU and NATO, increasing tension with Russia.
-This led to the 2003 Rose Revolution, which marked the end of pro-Russian leadership. This clearly demonstrated the pro-Western feeling.
-Also, there has been divisions between national identities. In 1993, Abkhazia declared itself an independent state, and in 2008, South Ossetia did too. Both regions now look towards Russia for protection.
-Russia joined the WTO in 2012, despite long-standing opposition from Georgia.
Balance: What is the global hegemonic theory? What does Fukuyama argue?
-The presence of the global hegemon, that is percieved by most other global players as benign, can act as a global police, which encourages peace and stability.
-Since the fall of the USSR, the USA has arguably become the global hegemon.
-In, The End of History, Fukuyama argues that American ideals of free-market liberal democracy have triumphed, and the popularity of the US’ economic, politcial and cultural identity have secured the US as a ‘benign leader’.
Balance: What does Kenneth Waltz argue? How are we in a period of power transition now?
-Unipolarity can be highly unstable, as it can encourage dangerous resentment. States want to protect themselves.
-It is particularly dangerous when the hegemon is in decline of power, and can make international relations extremely volatile.
-This has clear historical precendent, particularly in the start of WW1, where the growth of Germany began to challenge the UK’s power.
-The US military/economic weakness, particularly post- 2003/8. The US have also, as a superpower, been somewhat resented. While China has accepted US hegemony, their aggression in South China Sea suggests that its weakening (this is also shown by Russia in Ukraine/Crimea)
Balance: What does Noam Chomsky argue? Give an example of this.
-Lack of constraints on the one power can encourage them to go against international convention.
-This can create malign hegemony, where one state is so powerful that it doesn’t feel like it has to listen to others, and they become a ‘rogue superpower’.
-This was seen through the US’ action in Iraq in 2003, where they intervened without the approval of the UNSC.
Balance: Give some evidence that US is still economically and culturally dominant. Give some that they aren’t.
FOR
-Still the “pre-eminent power.” Their economy is still the largest in the world, and their GDP in 2020 was $20.8tr.
-US$ remains the international currency, and it still has huge structural power in IGOs.
-Americanisation of culture is still huge, and they still wield soft-power through this (particularly through film).
AGAINST
-Economic dominance is challenged by emerging powers, and China is projected to overtake it as largest economy.
-2015, AIIB was established to rival the World Bank.
-US elections have shown deep political divisions in the country, whereas states like Russia are wholeheartedly behind their leaders.
-Culturally, Hollywood has been challenged by Bolly/Nollywood, and the most popular sports teams in the world are ManU & Real Madrid.
Balance: Give some evidence that the US is still dominant in military & cyber. Give some evidence that they aren’t.
FOR
-Biden agreed to the New Atlantic Charter in 2021, which suggests that they are rising in influence.
-US has the world’s largest military budget. In 2020, the annual defence spending was $778m.
-US has 800 military bases, in more than 70 countries.
AGAINST
-China has heavily invested in long-range bonbers, nuclear subs, and medium range missiles. Obama focused on the pacific, not atlantic.
-US embarrassment in Afghanistan & Arab Spring, enabling powers like Turkey & Russia.
-Cyber attacks could leave the US weakened.
-In 2016, Russia announced that it had constructed the world’s most lethal nuclear weapon: the RS-28 Sarmat.
Balance: Detail the consequences of the Pivot to Asia, and what it reveals about the balance of power.
-Obama had a greater focus on Asia than the Middle East, favouring looking at the South China Sea than Arab Spring.
-Arguably, this led to USA’s surveillance of the South China Sea.
-As a result, this put greater emphasis on European leaders to deal with Middle Eastern issues.
-US’ decision not to act enabled Russia to intervene in the Assad & later annexation of Crimea shows Russia no longer viewed them as a threat.
-Suggests that Obama viewed China as a greater threat, and arguably shows that the US has less of a stronghold.
Balance: What is the realist view of multipolarity? What is the liberal?
-Realists argue that multipolarity represeents the most unstable distribution of global power. This is because the system is more fluid than bipolarity/unipolarity. When there aren’t two powers keeping states in check, states are encouraged to take risks, making the global system unpredictable.
-Liberals are more optimistic, about the consequences of multipolarity for global peace & stability. They believe that, without a global hegemon, states are more likely to cooperate in multilateral IGOs.
-Therefore, the relative scrutiny of a multipolar world is dependent upon whether states are prepared to work through international agencies of government.
Balance: Is there multipolarity in today’s system?
YES
-New emerging powers, like the BRICS nations, are increasingly powerful on the global stage. China’s economy, in particular, threatens global hegemony.
-Russia has become increasingly confident, since its intervention in Crimea/Syria, leading to Ukrainian invasion.
-Globalisation, particularly cultural, is no longer limited to America. We are increasingly moving away from “Americanisation.”
NO
-US is still the leading power in terms of its economy, and its military. China’s military outreach is only regional compared to US.
-Russia lacks allies, and its military outreach is insignificant compared to US.
-Americanisation is still the major cultural movement
Regional: What is regional bipolarity? What did Mary Kaldor argue about failed states?
-Regionalism has meant that its more realistic for a state to vie for leadership in a region than globally.
-This has led to regional bipolarity, where 2 states contend for prominence within a given region, like Iran v Saudi, or India v Pakistan.
-She argued that failed states would lead to new kinds of war.
-This is because outside powers have to act to prevent these failed states becoming a magnet for violence and terrorism. It puts emphasis on outside states becoming peace-keeping powers, which leads to a more bipolar regional system.
Regional: How does regional bipolarity impact global stability?
-It worsens it. Bipolarity, particularly in a regional scene, has led to various proxy wars, which has only destabilised the regional situation.
-This has also invited involvement from the international community, like the US in Iraq and has only increased the quantity of failed.
-Particularly with Iran & Saudi, it has led to greater conflict & wars (like the of Iraq) it has also led to involvement of global superpowers, again weakening global stability.
-Regional bipolarity has not served its purpose of keeping other states in check, as well as balancing each other’s power.
Regional: Outline some of the tensions between Iran & Saudi Arabia.
-Religious divisions: Shia in Iran, and Sunni in Saudi. However, this difference is often overplayed by Western media.
-Natural resources: Both states have massive oil reserves. They therefore both have economic interests, as they occupy the same market, heightening chances of warfare.
-Involvement of other powers: Saudi has strong ties to the US, while Iran has less of a connection. This US allyship has often exacerbated conflict.
Regional: Give some key recent events regarding Iran & Saudi?
-2017: Missile Strikes in Riyadh. Saudi intercepted a missile that, it believed, had been supplied by Iran.
-2018: US pulls out of Iran nuclear deal. May 2018, Trump withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal.
-2019: Attacks on Saudi targets. Saudi blamed Iran for a series of attacks, including one at the heart of Saudi’s oil industry.
-2020: Qassem Soleimani, and Iranian military commander, killed in US drone strike. Saudi media celebrated the attack.
-2021-onwards: Talks have been held between the states since their first official meeting in April 2021. In 2023, Riyadh and Tehran annouced their decision to re-establish ties.
