Chapter Four Flashcards
(38 cards)
What is the rule of thumb with conflicting claims?
You are not justified in believing either one of them fully until you resolve the conflict.
What is background information?
The huge collection of very well-supported beliefs that we all rely on to inform our actions and choices.
What is the principle of claims conflicting?
If a claim conflicts with our background information, we have good reason to doubt it.
What does weak evidence warrant?
Weak belief
What does strong evidence warrant?
Strong belief.
What is an expert?
An expert is someone who is more knowledgeable about a particular subject area of field than most other people are.
Fill in the blank: We should proportion our belief to ______ ______________
We should proportion our belief to the evidence
If a claim conflicts with an expert opinion, do we have good reason to doubt it?
Yes. If a claim conflicts with an experts opinion, we have good reason to doubt it.
What is a conflict of interest?
If an expert provides advice in a situation in which they have some “other” interest that may tend to skew or bias the advice they give.
What are the requirements for an expert to be considered an expert?
- Education and training from reputable institutions or programs in the relevant field.
- Experience in making reliable judgements in the field.
- Reputation among peers
- Professional accomplishments.
Is there such thing as a general expert?
No! There’s only experts in specific subject areas.
What is personal experience>
Arises from our senses, memory, and the judgement involved in those faculties.
Can you trust your personal experience to reveal the truth?
Sort of yes. It’s reasonable to accept the evidence provided by personal experience only if there’s no good reason to doubt it.
Is personal experience infallible?
Yes! Personal experience is infallible.
What is the key thing to remember about our perception and memory?
Our perception and memory are constructive, which means that what we perceive and remember to some degree fabricated by our minds, so perceptions and memories can sometimes be prone to error.
What is pareidolia?
We may see or hear what we expect to see or hear. Or the mere suggestion of what we should perceive helps us to perceive it.
Are humans good at estimating probabilities?
No. Humans are shit at estimating probabilities.
What is the gambler’s fallacy?
When you think that previous events affect the probabilities in the random event at hand.
What is the key thing to remember about probabilities?
We shouldn’t rely solely on our intuitive sense in evaluating them.
What is the availability error?
When we rely on evidence not because it’s trustworthy but because it’s memorable or striking.
What is conformation bias?
When you seek out and use only confirming evidence.
What do we often fail to do?
Respect the available evidence.
Fill in the blank: We tend to _________ ___________, ______ it, __________ it, and _______ it.
We tend to ignore evidence, deny it, manipulate it, and distort it.
How do we remedy our tendency to resist opposing evidence?
Examine even our favourite claims critically.
