Civil War

Question 1

What is the Political Instability Task Force?

Answer 1

• CIA-sponsored academic research project
• Originated in mid-1990s as State Failure Task Force
• Examined every country except the US

Question 2

What are the 2 factors highly predictive of political instability and violence?

Answer 2

• Anocracy
• Political parties mostly grouped around identity (race, ethnicity or religion)

Question 3

What is an anocracy?

Answer 3

A country that is not fully democratic or fully autocratic but displays a mix of the two types

Question 4

Who starts civil wars?
Not the poor/oppressed!

Answer 4

Groups that are dominant but losing power are more likely to initiate civil war

Question 5

What are the Right and Wrong Types of Future War?

Answer 5

Mainstream security studies experts since 2014 have downgraded study of intra-state war

In contrast, some experts argue the future of war will be about civil wars rather than inter-state or great power wars

Question 6

What important shift is happening in regards to civil wars and their importance?

Answer 6

Western military shift away from counterinsurgency towards large-scale inter-state war/hybrid war

Question 7

What are the different types of civil war that can possibly start?

Answer 7

Full-blown civil war? or Upheaval, riots, low-level violence?

Question 8

What are the key questions to ask for possible future civil wars?

Answer 8

• How will it begin?
• What sort of fighting?
• How will it end?
• What novel features relative to other civil wars?

Question 9

What is the Civil Wars Research Boom?

Answer 9

After 1991, there has been an explosion in the study of intra-state wars, predominantly civil wars, among peace researchers, historians, political scientists, supporters of intergovernmental organisations, and quantitative scholars

Question 10

Why did the Civil Wars Research Boom happen?

Answer 10

Due to 4 converging trends:

• Collapse of USSR
• Development failure in Africa
• Decline of interstate wars
• 9/11 aftermath

Question 11

How were civil wars examined historically?

Answer 11

Used to be examined only on an individual basis

Historical studies avoided cross-case comparison and theory-building

Question 12

How do historians and political scientists analyse civil wars differently?

Answer 12

Historians tend to focus on cases that are called civil wars rather than meeting a definition of civil war

Political scientists prefer large comparisons + post-1945 bias

Question 13

Why study civil wars?

Answer 13

Since 1945 they have lasted far longer and have been far deadlier than inter-state wars

Question 14

How have Great Powers changed their strategies in regards to civil conflicts?

Answer 14

Great powers avoid inter-state wars with each other, preferring to intervene in the civil wars of others

Question 15

What is the Conflict Trap in civil war studies?

Answer 15

Pattern of civil war recurrence or an enduring cycle of violence

Question 16

How did the Cold War reduce the frequency of civil wars? How did its end affect civil wars?

Answer 16

Geopolitical equilibrium of the Cold War kept a lid on simmering tensions, especially ethnic ones, across the world

Collapse of USSR leads to a new anarchy in global politics with a resultant rise in the number of civil wars

Question 17

What is the idea that civil wars have changed in type?

Answer 17

“New wars are motivated by greed whereas old wars were motivated by political or social grievances”

Question 18

What did Thomas Hobbes argue about civil wars?

Answer 18

• Focus on breakdown of sovereign authority
• Lack of authority (anarchy) results in civil war
• Elite actors, spurred by ambition, use ideological overtures to reshape ordinary individuals’ incentives to rebel

Question 19

Why is civil war terminology complicated?

Answer 19

There is no one commonly accepted definition of a civil war

Many scholars utilise the terms intra-state war and civil war as synonymous

Some scholars prefer the term ‘internal war’

Question 20

What is a civil war in simplest terms?

Answer 20

A violent conflict between a government and an organised rebel group

some scholars also include armed conflicts primarily between non-state actors within their study

Question 21

What is the key factor to consider when categorising conflicts as civil wars?

Answer 21

Anti-colonial and imperial wars do not count as civil wars!

Question 22

A number of definitional thresholds and criteria have emerged to distinguish civil wars from other forms of large-scale violence. What are some examples?

Answer 22

• magnitude and scope of the violence
• the spatial context
• nature and identity of the protagonists

Question 23

What are the absolute key characteristics of civil wars?

Answer 23

• The goal of armed entities in civil war is power
• The entities that participate in a civil war must be organised
• The means by which these goals are accomplished is violence
• The context in which a civil war takes place is the sovereign nation state
• One of the participants is usually a government

Question 24

What is the Correlates of War Typology for intra-state conflicts?

Answer 24

Intra-state wars are subdivided into three general types:
1. Civil Wars: government vs nonstate entity
2. Regional Internal War: government of regional sub-unit against a non-state entity
3. Intercommunal War: combat between/among two or more nonstate entities within a state

Question 25

What are the two subtypes of civil wars in the Correlates of War Typology?

Answer 25

* Control of the central government * Disputes over local issues

Question 26

What is a central government according to the Correlates of War typology?

Answer 26

Forces that were at the start of the war in de facto control of the nation's institutions, regardless of the legality or illegality of their claim

Question 27

What are the criteria to be considered a war participant according to the Correlates of War typology?

Answer 27

For a state to be considered a war participant, the minimum requirement is that it has to either commit 1,000 troops to the war or suffer 100 battle-related deaths Since nonstate armed groups are generally smaller than states and have fewer resources than states, they can be considered a war participant if it either commits 100 armed personnel to the war or suffers 25 battle-related deaths

Question 28

What are key research findings on the economic factors of civil wars?

Answer 28

Intrastate armed conflict is more likely to occur in poor, developing countries with weak state structures In situations of weak states the presence of lootable natural resources and oil increase the likelihood of experiencing armed conflict While ethnic heterogeneity is not in isolation associated with a higher risk of armed conflict, ethnic or group domination of politics and economic opportunities does increase the risk

Question 29

How can frustration lead to civil war?

Answer 29

Civil war can result from frustration if one group perceives an unfair advantage by another group in the political or economic realms

Question 30

How can an anocracy lead to civil war?

Answer 30

Situations of partial or weak democracy (anocracy) and political transition, particularly a movement towards democracy in volatile or divided societies, are also strongly correlated to conflict onset

Question 31

How can spillovers lead to civil war?

Answer 31

The location of a society - especially if it has other vulnerability factors - in a region which has contiguous neighbors which are experiencing or have experienced armed conflict is also an armed conflict risk

Question 32

What is the Weak/Failing States Argument for civil wars?

Answer 32

Weak or failing state institutions provide an environment in which armed conflict emerges Rebels will more likely take up arms when the perceived prospects for victory are enhanced by a weak state, the presence of terrain suitable for hiding, a stable revenue stream, and support from a local population

Question 33

What is the significance of the Weak/Failing States Argument for civil wars?

Answer 33

Has many implications for the prevention of armed conflict in the developing world and policies aimed at building state capacity are now central to international development policy

Question 34

What are the Greed vs Grievance Explanations of civil wars?

Answer 34

Greed-based explanations: focus on individuals' desire to maximise profit Grievance-based explanations: focus on conflict as a response to socio-economic or political injustice

Question 35

What is the Greed Thesis of Paul Collier?

Answer 35

War over natural resources - generate revenue streams - i.e. organised crime but on much larger scale Characterised by disorganised fighting with gratuitous violence

Question 36

How can Ethnicity trigger civil wars?

Answer 36

Ethnic conflict driven by differential access to power, access to resources, economic status

Question 37

How can Geography influence civil wars?

Answer 37

Presence of natural resources/narcotics increases the risk of civil war

Question 38

How can Wealth influence civil wars?

Answer 38

Civil wars more likely to start in poorer countries; the poorer the country, the higher the risk

Question 39

How can Economic Development influence civil wars?

Answer 39

Rapid social-economic change may mobilise social groups for conflict by enhancing competition for scarce resources On other hand, economic modernisation and development should decrease inequalities within a society and increase political stability

Question 40

How can Social Fractionalisation influence civil wars?

Answer 40

Ethnic, linguistic or religious differences may play an important role Political and economic tensions may contribute to ethnopolitical conflict in multi-ethnic societies Many civil wars in Africa have religious components All civil wars in Africa have been substantially ethnic

Question 41

How can Domestic Governance influence civil wars?

Answer 41

Democracies generally allow for peaceful negotiation

Question 42

What are Internationalised Civil Wars?

Answer 42

Intra-state wars are classified as "internationalised" when an outside state or states intervenes in the war The war remains classified as "internationalised" as long as the intervener does not take over the bulk of the fighting from one of the initial parties

Question 43

However if the intervener takes over the bulk of the fighting, the war ceases to be an intra-state war and is transformed into a war of a different classification. What are example scenarios of this?

Answer 43

If the intervener comes in on the side of the government and then takes over the bulk of the fighting, the war is transformed into an extra-state war If the intervener comes in on the side of the non-state entity and takes on the bulk of the fighting, the war is transformed into an inter-state war Conversely, wars can also be transformed into intra-state wars, for example when a state withdraws from an inter-state war

Question 44

How do civil wars attract foreign intervention?

Answer 44

Civil wars lead to international flows of refugees and human displacement leads to the diffusion of civil war which can in turn attract foreign intervention Refugee camps can, in turn, become fertile recruiting grounds

Question 45

Is the cure worse than the disease? Do civil war interventions backfire?

Answer 45

Peacekeeping and peacebuilding interventions are generally considered to be effective in helping to end civil wars and preventing recurrence However, there are also debates over the effectiveness of the liberal peacebuilding model, and some suggest that rushing into elections before institutional capacity is addressed can be a harbinger of more violence Military intervention aimed at supporting a protagonist or influencing the outcome of a conflict tends to increase the intensity of civil wars and increase their duration

Question 46

It is commonly argued that wars ending with military victory are less likely to recur. Why?

Answer 46

* In these terminations one side no longer exists as a fighting force * Negotiated settlements are often unstable as peace agreements can go unimplemented or one side reneges

Question 47

What is the Scholarly Consensus on civil wars?

Answer 47

* YES: civil war afflicts poor countries (low GDP per capita important indicator) * NO: unclear about the role of ethnic competition, foreign intervention, natural resources