Cognitive Background - Exam 1 Flashcards Preview

Cognition and Motivation in Sports - Performance Enhancement > Cognitive Background - Exam 1 > Flashcards

Flashcards in Cognitive Background - Exam 1 Deck (9)
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1
Q

What was Paul Meehl’s major contribution?

A

Meehl believes simple algorithms out-perform humans, simple rule = better than expert

2
Q

Are Algorithms better than experts?

A

Yes because experts overcomplicate & are inconsistent since we’re associative machines

3
Q
Parameters for trusting expert -> when can recognition-primed decision making
take place (2 key rules)
A
  • Predictable environment

- Opportunity to learn predictions

4
Q

When so statistical algorithms outperform experts?

A

?????

5
Q

Inside view + optimism bias = planning fallacy

A

Somehow without changing anything you will perform better + you think things just work out = I’m just going out there and will be winning/overly unrealistic best case scenario

6
Q

outside view

A

Outside view is your comparable reference (stats) which is rooted in system 2
The person who isn’t you but statistically looks like you

7
Q

how is overconfidence based in system 1?

A

Intuitions!!! We think they are beliefs/real

8
Q

how can overconfidence be maladaptive

A

can manifest in sunk-cost fallacy
resulting in you preserving in a project to would have been more adaptive to
give up on

9
Q

reference class forecasting

A

the method of predicting the future, through looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecasted.