CON 270 Exam 1 Flashcards

(63 cards)

1
Q

How do Contracting Specialist use statistics?

  1. Developing __________ objectives
  2. Developing an estimate of risk in ______ / ___ analysis
  3. Developing _______ and _______ price
  4. Developing an estimate of risk in ________ ____ decision
A

Government
profit / fee
minimum and maximum
contract type

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2
Q

_______ _________ is the central value around which data observations tend to cluster.

A

Central Tendency

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3
Q

__________ is the closeness of the clustering or variation within the data set.

A

Dispersion

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4
Q

Average in central tendency is the ____.

A

Mean

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5
Q

Middle in central tendency is the ______.

A

Median

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6
Q

The ____ is most frequent but not necessarily the “majority”.

A

Mode

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7
Q

Four measures of Dispersion

are _____, ________ , ________ _________, and ___________ __ _________.

A

Range
Variance
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation

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8
Q

When asked about Relative accuracy, use __.

A

CV (Coefficient of Variation)

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9
Q

More dispersion (variability) equals greater ____.

A

risk

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10
Q

________ is the average squared estimating error.

A

Variance

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11
Q

________ _________ is the average estimating error.

A

Standard Deviation

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12
Q

___________ __ _________ is the average % estimating error

A

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

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13
Q

A skew of 0 is ________ distributed.

A

normally

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14
Q

A skew that is positive is _____ skewed.

A

right

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15
Q

A skew that is negative is _____ skewed.

A

left

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16
Q

________ kurtosis is flat.

A

Negative

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17
Q

________ kurtosis has a peak.

A

Positive

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18
Q

A kurtosis of 0 is ________ distributed.

A

normally

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19
Q

The skewness in the data tends to effect the ____ more than the ______.

A

mean

median

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20
Q

When data is skewed, the ______ is more representative of the data.

A

median

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21
Q

With __% confidence the Population ____ will fall between the ___ and ___.

A

90
Mean
min and max

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22
Q

________ deals with dispersion.

A

Accuracy

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23
Q

When an observation departs significantly from the center of the data it is typically referred to as an “_______”.

A

outlier

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24
Q

An outlier is greater than + or - 2 times the ________ _________.

A

standard deviation

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25
A __________ _________ is a statistical range with a specified probability that a given parameter lies within the range.
Confidence interval
26
Confidence intervals allow us to make a probability statement about the __________ mean
population
27
When do you use stratified sampling?
with a large bill of materials
28
What does the confidence level tell ?
The more confident you need to be, the wider the prediction interval will be
29
Outliers have most impact on which measures of central tendency & dispersion?
mean and the variance
30
Equal chance of underrun or overrun?
median
31
What are the two basic types of CER?
Cost/cost | Cost/no cost
32
__________ ________ is when you have a large bill of material to be evaluated, there is a statistical technique recommended that saves time and, therefore, money.
stratified sampling
33
____ __________ ____________ is a Base/Pool relationship between a dependent variable and an independent variable.
Cost Estimating Relationship
34
Cost Estimating Relationships permit __________ _________ without generating excessive amounts of data
reasonable estimates
35
____ / ____ and ____ / ___-____ are two types of Cost Estimating Relationships.
Cost/Cost | Cost/Non-Cost (Product)
36
These Variables Dependent = Pool = Indirect = Y drive
Independent = Base = Direct = X
37
Calculate Dependent and Independent Variables with ____ / ____.
Pool / Base
38
In a Cost / No Cost situation, the no cost aspect will be your ____________ ________ which is the Base.
independent variable
39
______ ________ is a quantitative technique used for contract cost and pricing that uses an average of past observations to estimate and analyze estimates.
Moving Averages
40
______ and ______ are the two types of moving averages?
Single | Double
41
______ ______ ________ are used when there IS NO time-series data trend.
Single Moving Averages
42
______ ______ ________ are used when there IS a time-series trend in the data
Double Moving Averages
43
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 1. Does the available data verify the _________ and ________ of the proposed relationship?
existence and accuracy
44
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 2. Is there a _____ in the relationship?
trend
45
___ is the average or typical estimating error where the unit of measure is in dollars or hours.
SEE (Standard Error of the Estimate)
46
__ and ___________ ___ ____ are 2 Statistics used to measure | "Goodness of Fit"
r2 (Coefficient of Determination) | Probability Not Zero
47
__ is the % of Explained Variation
r2
48
__ is variation in Y is caused by X
r2
49
__ tells you the strength of the relationship between two variables
r2
50
If ___________ ___ ____ is lower, consider using a factor
Probability Not Zero
51
__________ ___ ____ needs to be as close to 100% as possible
Probability Not Zero
52
___________ ___ ____ tells you how Confident you are that a relationship exists between X & Y
Probability Not Zero
53
________ __ ________ is how well the regression equation fits the data.
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
54
Linear Equation
Yc = A + BX Y=Pool=dependent=indirect A= Y intercept B= slope X=Base=Independent= direct
55
__________ analysis is a statistical technique that attempts to explore and model the relationship between two or more variables.
Regression
56
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 7. Would a ________ ________ or ______ __________ with actuals from a prior effort produce more accurate results?
detailed estimate or direct comparison
57
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 6. Is the CER a ____-__________ prophecy?
self-fulfilling
58
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 5. Would another ___________ variable be better for developing and applying a CER?
independent
59
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 4. How _______ is the CER?
current
60
What are some Cost Estimating Relationship issues and concerns? 3. Is the CER used ____________?
consistently
61
What is proposal modeling?
The best way to understand how the proposed costs roll together
62
What term is known as the marginal cost?
slope
63
What are the steps of the CER?
1Define the dependent variable 2Select independent variables to be tested 3Collect data on the variables 4Explore the relationship between the dependent and independent variables 5Select the relationship that best predicts the dependent variable 6Document your findings