Core essays Voter behaviour Flashcards
(47 cards)
What would your 3 paragraph be for “Evaluate the view that social factors are the most significant in determining voter behaviour”
Social factors
Class
Media
What are your examples for social factors
People from ethnic minorities tend to side with labour often due to their more open immigration policies
* In 2017, 73% of ethnic minorities voted for Labour and only 19% voted for the Tories
* In 2015, Labour had a 43% lead over Conservatives on Black African voters
Age does play a role with the younger voters tending to sway for Labour and older voters sway towards conservatives
* In 2019 62% of 18-24 year-old voters elected Labour, only 19% voted for conservatives
* In 2019 63% of the 65+ age group voted for conservative, only 17% voted Labour
○ And this is due to the idea that the younger people are more in favour of change which is often promoted by Labour whereas the older generation are happier with traditionalism (connected to Tories)
What is your argument against social factors
2019 General Election – Traditional Labour voters back Conservatives
* What happened: Many working-class voters in the so-called “Red Wall” (historically Labour strongholds) voted Conservative.
* Why: Brexit was a dominant issue. These voters felt Labour’s stance was unclear or too pro-Remain, while Boris Johnson offered a simple “Get Brexit Done” message.
* Why it matters: These voters went against traditional class-based voting, showing that issue salience (Brexit) can override long-standing social loyalties.
1997 General Election – Blair’s Labour wins big across social groups
* What happened: Tony Blair’s New Labour appealed to a broad coalition, including many middle-class and even some traditionally Conservative voters.
* Why: Blair modernised the party, moved it to the centre, and ran a slick, media-savvy campaign.
* Why it matters: It suggests that policy moderation, leadership image, and campaign strategy can cross social divides and reshape voting behaviour.
What are your arguments for Class being the most significant
Embourgeoisement- growing affluence has encouraged some working-class voters to think of themselves as being middle. Affluent workers may be more concerned about material self-interest
In 1960’s two thirds of tory support was middle class this was similar for the labour party, but this has declined and by 2019 conservatives did better among working class voters 48% then they did middle class voters 43%
What is your argument against class dealignment
Despite class and partisan dealignment, class is still a big determinant in how one votes.
In 2017 Labour held 72 of the 100 constituencies with the most working class households, all five constituencies In Liverpool are strong labour safe seats with more than 70% of the vote
What is your argument for media
- The Sun had 30 million monthly reads in 2017, showing how there is still demand for the traditional print media
- The sun that won it, 1992 Major and 1997 labour and has predicted correctly every election outcome since 1992
- Becoming increasingly important in UK politics - in 2017, campaigners spent 43% of their total advertising budget on online advertising, compared to 0.35% in 2011
- Targeted social media advertisements can have significant influence - in 2019, conservatives targeted voters in marginal seats with ads about how Labour would increase cost of petrol, put up heating bills and hike up inheritance tax - would have contributed to their big win
What is your argument against media
- What happened: Jeremy Corbyn faced overwhelmingly negative press coverage from many mainstream newspapers (e.g. The Sun, Daily Mail).
- Outcome: Labour still gained seats and increased its vote share by over 9%, denying the Conservatives a majority.
- Why it matters: Despite hostile media, many voters (especially younger ones) either ignored or rejected the narrative—suggesting that media bias doesn’t always sway the public.
- What happened: Most major newspapers and broadcasters backed Remain, or at least framed Leave as a risk.
- Outcome: Leave won with 52% of the vote.
- Why it matters: Shows that media consensus didn’t control the outcome, and that personal values, distrust of elites, and issue salience (e.g. immigration, sovereignty) mattered more.
- Point: People often consume media that reinforces their existing views—called confirmation bias or selective exposure.
- Example: A Conservative voter reading The Telegraph or a Labour voter watching Channel 4 News likely won’t change their mind—media tends to reinforce, not transform, opinions.
- Why it matters: Media may shape how issues are framed, but not necessarily how people vote, especially in a polarized environment.
What are your 3 paragraphs to answer “ Evaluate the view that class is no longer an important factor in determining UK voter behaviour”
Age/class
Class/region
Class/ethnicity
What is your argument for age
- Age does play a role with the younger voters tending to sway for Labour and older voters sway towards conservatives
○ In 2019 62% of 18-24 year-old voters elected Labour, only 19% voted for conservatives
○ In 2019 63% of the 65+ age group voted for conservative, only 17% voted Labour
§ And this is due to the idea that the younger people are more in favour of change which is often promoted by Labour whereas the older generation are happier with traditionalism (connected to Tories)- The age changes what forms of media people are exposed to and therefore they see different things about the parties
○ In 2017 the introduction of Corbyn and his successful media campaign meant that Labour got a 47% lead over conservatives among 18-19 year old voters
§ Shows how age changes the things people are influenced by with the younger people having a greater amount of information gathered online
- The age changes what forms of media people are exposed to and therefore they see different things about the parties
What is your argument against age
- Age also typically has an effect on the financial stability of certain people and the older generation are more financially stable and therefore they are more likely to vote conservatives (link this to the idea that class is more important)
- Most younger people inherit many of their political beliefs from their menage and therefore the class will affect who they vote for because their family will have a ‘Party Identification’
- There is ‘Political socialisation’ when the way you decide things is based on the way you have learnt to behave based on the people around you
- The class that you are raised in changes your political views as a whole and therefore it is less on the age and instead their environment
○ Those who have grown up in high income households where they would typically vote conservatives likely have financial stability and would not want change and therefore they are likely to favour conservatives.
What is your argument for region
- Outline the typical regional differences, North is Labour and South is Conservatives
- The North is a far more industrial section of the country and this will likely mean that they will vote for Labour due to their association to the workers
○ In the midlands and north there is a metaphorical red-wall hat consists of constituencies such as Bolsover and Sedgefield where it is hard for Tories to gain seats - The south has far more jobs in the tertiary and secondary sector so therefore we see greater support for the Tories
○ In the 1983 election we saw over 85% of the voters elected the Conservatives - There is the exception of London that is in the South yet they often side with Labour, this highlights that region is not as important
- The North is a far more industrial section of the country and this will likely mean that they will vote for Labour due to their association to the workers
What is your argument against region
- Overall the region people live in typically has an effect on class (form the link and say this is why class is more important)
Against:- The industrialism in the North means there are far more working class citizens and therefore there is a stronger Labour support and in the South there are more middle class citizens than in the North so we see a strong Conservative support
○ In 1964-66, 64% of working class people voted for Labour
○ In the same period 62% of middle class people voted Conservatives
- The industrialism in the North means there are far more working class citizens and therefore there is a stronger Labour support and in the South there are more middle class citizens than in the North so we see a strong Conservative support
What is your argument for ethnicity
- People from ethnic minorities tend to side with labour often due to their more open immigration policies
○ In 2017, 73% of ethnic minorities voted for Labour and only 19% voted for the Tories
○ In 2015, Labour had a 43% lead over Conservatives on Black African voters
What is your argument against ethnicity
- However it is often the case that there is lower incomes and higher levels of unemployment amongst ethnic minorities (link back to class again)
- Because the people of ethnic minorities are typically on lower incomes then it means that they side with Labour
What are your 3 paragraphs for “ Evaluate the view that party unity is the most important factor in why UK general elections are won or lost”
Party unity
Party leader
Issue voting
Argument for party unity
1983: Labour were seen as split, michael foot who was the leader was to left wing for most of the party, the SDP was formed from Labour MPs getting 25.4% of the vote and split Labour’s vote and showed disunity, allowed for Thatcher to win 397 seats
1997: disunity over Europe
2024:conservatives were split between going to the left or right to reform, members such as Lee Anderson had left, Natalie Elphick defected to Labour just before the election in May, Craig Williams an MP and parliamentary private secretary to the PM bet on himself losing his seat and the election date.
Argument against party unity
2010: Brown labour was united and yet lost due to the tarnishing of the 2008 financial crisis therefore party unity does not solely win elections.
2017: conservatives lost their majority despite being eventually unified to a point on Brexit
Argument for Party leader
Due to party dealignment and the rise of celebrities, influencers and social media more pressure and faith has been placed on leaders.
for example Blair in 1997 and 2003 seen as fresh and new, but in 2005 his character was diminished over Iraq. 2010 Cleggmania after the tv debate in contrast with boring Brown, in 2017 Corbyn came across as radical and disastrous whereas May safe and stable, 2015 Ed Miliband and the bacon sandwich which undermined his competency. Johnson in 2019 49% said would make best PM and 31% FOR Corbyn, Johnson also was prominent in many of the campaign ads such as the love actually Skit or the interview following him around CCHQ. Ed Davy in 2024 did a series of stunts leading to his parties largest ever seat holding of 73
Argument against party leader
Against:
1997: the conservatives hit by numerous scandals of sleaze such as cash for questions by Dodi Al Fayed 1994, or the arms deals to Saudi Arabia in 1995 caused the huge loss from the tories and big labour win.
2011: despite Cameron being a fresh face and a young promising candidate he failed to get a majority.
What are your 3 paragraphs for “Evaluate the view that the media has a real influence over elections in the UK”
Broadcast media, print media and social media
Argument that broadcast media doesn’t play a role
Trust has declined in general - YouGov polling shows BBC journalists were trusted by 81% and ITV journalists by 82% in 2003. This decreased to 47 and 41% in April 2020. The decline is driven in part by increasing belief among viewers and listeners that the broadcast media demonstrates bias in its output
Becoming increasingly unpopular due to increasing popularity of social media, particularly among young people - 94% of those over 65 use TV as a source of news compared to only 50% of 16-24
Argument that broadcast media does play a role
nfluence of broadcast media means both looking and sounding good on TV is crucial for modern leaders. Michael Foot was a brilliant public speaker but uncomfortable on TV so his credibility was damaged, while both Blair’s and Cameron’s easy style was key to their success
UK broadcasters are legally obliged to be impartial, trust in broadcast media journalists remains high in comparison to the print media, and voters consistently rate television as holding the most influence
Argument that Print Media does not play a role
Despite newspapers dominating online news in the 2019 campaign alongside the BBC, the Reuters Institute for the study of Journalism in Oxford found that on average people only spent 16 minutes per week looking at the news online
Conservative-weighted print media was scathing in its sensationalist and aggressive coverage of Corbyn during the 2017 election, yet the Labour party outperformed expectations and the tories lost their majority. Put down to the waning influence of the print media and the rise in importance of social media
Argument that print media does play a role
The Sun has backed the winner of every UK election since 1979. Shaping of views of leaders over time (Foot, Kinnock, Miliband, Corbyn) impacts voting behaviour. Efforts by Blair to court the Murdoch press and gain the backing of The Sun in 1997, along with the abandonment of traditional policies, shows the importance Labour placed on the print media
Parties and leaders look to recruit journalists to serve as their directors of communications to manage relations with the press: Blair and Campbell, a former political editor of the Daily Mirror. Cameron and Andy Coulson, a former editor of the News of the World. 2015 Corbyn appointed ex-Guardian journalist Seamus Milne, while Johnson appointed another ex-journalist, Lee Cain in 2019
