Counterfactuals

Question 1

What is Counterfactual Thinking?

Answer 1

•Mental simulation about how a past event might have been different•“If only…” thoughts

Question 2

Direction of CFT

Main feature/classification

Answer 2

• UPWARD: We imagine how things could have been better.
  •Induces negative affect, but might help to do better in the future•More common than downward counterfactuals
• DOWNWARD
  We imagine how things could have been worse.
  •Induces positive affect, but might prevent future improvement•Can observed with low repeatability / low control

Question 3

Structure of CFT

Main featuers/classification

Answer 3

- ADDITIVE
Change past event by adding something
•“Expansive” processing style
•Help with creative generation tasks
- SUBTRACTIVE
Change past event by removingsomething
•“Relational” processing style
•Help with analytical tasks (like syllogisms)

Question 4

Determinants of Counterfactual Thinking

Answer 4

• NEGATIVE AFFECT: Signal that a problem is present
  •Prompts comparison with a better alternative
  •Strong antecedent of upward counterfactual
• OUTCOME CLOSENESS: High perceived possibility that an alternative outcome could have happened (positive or negative)
  •Temporal, physical, numerical
  •Nearly avoided negative outcomes might prompt downward counterfactuals

Question 5

Content of Counterfactual Thinking

Answer 5

• Potentially infinite number of possible counterfactuals
• But people show consistent patterns in the content of their counterfactuals
• Four Fault Lines of Reality

Question 6

Fault Lines –Controllability Effect

Answer 6

When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate controllable rather than uncontrollable elements of the past event

Question 7

Exceptionality effect (Kahneman& Tversky, 1982a)

Answer 7

When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate out-of-the-ordinary rather than normal elements of the past event

Question 8

Action effect (Kahneman& Tversky, 1982b)

Answer 8

When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate an action rather than an inaction

Question 9

Temporal order effect (Miller & Gunasegaram, 1990)

Answer 9

When we generate a counterfactual, we tend to mutate the most recent rather than earlier elements of the past event

Question 10

What is the content of our counterfactual thoughts?

Answer 10

Four Fault Lines:

1. Controllability Effect
2. Exceptionality effect
3. Action effect
4. Temporal order effect

Question 11

How do we classify counterfactual thoughts?

Answer 11

• Direction

- Structure

Question 12

When do we produce counterfactual thoughts?

Answer 12

Determinants

• Negative affect
• Outcome closeness

Question 13

Why do we engage in Counterfactual Thinking?

Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking (Epstude& Roese, 2008

Answer 13

Functional Theory of Counterfactual Thinking (Epstude& Roese, 2008)
•After a negative event, counterfactuals are generated to prepare ourselves and do better in a future similar event (preparatory function)
•Activated when a problem is detected, favoring behaviors that should correct the problem

Question 14

Problem with Functional Theory

Answer 14

• Controllability effect is crucial for Functional Theory
• Previous studies only used scenarios, assuming that counterfactuals by readers and actors would have been the same
• Do actors produce controllable counterfactuals as well?

Question 15

Actor-Reader Effect

Answer 15

Discrepancy between counterfactuals by readers and actors:
•Readers produced majority of controllable counterfactuals (“If only she had chosen the other envelope”)
•Actors produced a majority of uncontrollable counterfactuals (“If only I could have used paper and pencil”)
Result replicated in many other studies
This finding questions the robustness of Functional Theory: uncontrollable counterfactuals have little preparatory value

Question 16

Functions of Counterfactual Thinking

Answer 16

Preparatory function
•Counterfactuals are used to prepare and do better in a future similar event
•Might be less central than previously thought
Explanatory function
•Counterfactuals to better understand a past event, for example by increasing perceived coherence between its elements
•Justification of past events / Excuse-making and self-handicapping
Consolatory function
•Carried out by downward counterfactuals •Common with low repeatability or low perceived control àImprove mood, beneficial for mental health