Day 2 Topics Flashcards
(39 cards)
Rational Investor - Required Rate of Return
want to receive at least the risk free rate, real return and risk premium
Future Value - Compounding
FV = PV(1+r)^n
Present Value - Discounting
PV = FV/(1+r)^n
Annuity Discount Factor
1/r x (1-(1/(1+r)^n))
Annuity Discount Factor with growing annuities
A/(r-g) x (1-(1+g)^n/(1+r))
Compound Interest Rate
r = (FV/PV)^1/n - 1
Compound periods
n = (logFV - logPV)/log(1+r)
Periodic (Non-annual) Compounding
- Calculate the periodic rate = (1+r) = (1+R)^1/n
- use the annuity discount factor 1/r x (1-(1/(1+r)^n))
Discounting perpetuities and perpetuities that grow
PV = payment/r
PV = payment/(r-g)
Continuous Compounding
FV = Pe^rt
P = principal sum
e = 2.718
r = rate per period
t = time in years
Interest Rate Expressions - APR Formula
APR = (r+f/principal)/y x 365
r = interest paid over the life of the loan
f = any fees
y = number of days in the loan term
Measures the cost of borrowing
Only applicable over 1 year
Interest Rate Expressions – Annual Equivalent Rate (AER)
AER = (1+r)^12/n - 1
r is the rate of interest for each time period
n is the number of months in the tine period
used for savings or deposits
AER - Continuous compounding
AER = e^rt - 1
e = 2.718
r = rate per period
t = time in years
Real Return
(1+r nominal)/(1+r inflation) - 1
Advantages and Disadvantages NPV
Adv:
Time Value of Money
Monetary profit
Assumes reinvestment
Works for in and outflows
of cash
Shows total return
All risks factored into
discount rate
Good measure of
profitability
Dis:
Certainty of future
cashflows?
True cost of capital?
Sunk costs are ignored
Comparison of different
periods or amounts
Accuracy of discount rate
used?
Incorrect initial outlay
No allowance for nonquantitative
factors
Uses and Limitations of
IRR
Useful for comparing
projects – choose the
one with the higher IRR
But should choose
investment with higher
NPV at the relevant cost
of capital
Negative cashflows
results in multiple IRRs
Assumes all cashflows
are re-invested at the IRR
Geometric Annualisation
(1+ra)^n = (1+r1)(1+r2)(1+r3)…(1+ri)
i.e. ra = [(1+r1)(1+r2)(1+r3)…(1+ri)]^1/n – 1
CAGR
Measures the annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period
CAGR = (Ve/Vs)^1/t - 1
Ve = end value
Vs = start value
t = time in years
Value of a share = Dividend Valuation Model/Gordons Growth Model
next dividend/(required return - dividend growth)
Efficient Market Hypothesis
EMH states that if markets are efficient share prices fully reflect all information and so trade at their
fair value.
Weak Form =
* All historical information
is reflected in the share
price.
* Excess returns cannot be
generated via technical
analysis but can through
fundamental analysis.
Semi-strong form =
- All historical and public
information is reflected in
the share price. - Excess returns cannot be
generated via technical
analysis or fundamental
analysis but can via
having access to private
information.
Strong form =
- All historical, public and
private information is
reflected in the share
price. - It is impossible to
generate excess returns. - The only way to achieve
higher returns is to take
on more risk.
Cognitive biases
Loss aversion - hold on to losses too long and sell gains too quickly
Overconfidence bias - overtrading, too much belief in own ability
Anchoring bias: Individuals rely too heavily on an initial reference point when making decisions, even if it’s irrelevant to the current situation.
Herd behavior: Investors follow the crowd rather than making independent decisions, which can contribute to market bubbles or crashes.
Pros and cons of algorithmic trading
adv:
‘Slice and dice’ trades
Decreased transparency
Dark pools reduce fees
Dis:
Decreased transparency
‘Contrarian’ trades could
be construed as market
manipulation
Flash crashes
Prices on exchanges may
not be a true
representation
HF traders may ‘front run’
trades
Dark Pools
Dark pools refer to a non displayed or hidden nature of the buy and sell orders that reside within a crossing platform. The biggest sources of dark liquidity are within investment banks and major brokers
Types:
Broker-dealer owned e.g. JP Morgan
Agency broker or exchange-owned e.g. CBOE Global Markets
Electronic market makers e.g. Getco and Knight
Advantages:
Effect of large deals reduced
May be cheaper
No indication of market strategy
Disadvantages:
Price on exchange may not be representative
Lack of transparency
Front running by HF traders
Types of Shares
deferred ord shares
= div not paid unless specific
condition has been met
golden shares = special voting rights
want someone to have a controlling vote
A or NV shares - not as many rights
no voting rights
redeemable shares - company
can redeem them back. can only
offer if other shares have been
offered
cumulative shares - if no div then they must get
a div before ord shares next time