(Rational snacking: Young children’s decision-making on the marshmallow task is moderated by beliefs about environmental reliability)
However, recent evidence suggests that even very young children possess sophisticated decision-making capabilities for reasoning about physical causality (e.g., Gopnik et al., 2004; Gweon & Schulz, 2011), social behavior (e.g., Gergely, Bekkering, & Király, 2002), future events (e.g., Denison & Xu, 2010; Kidd, Piantadosi, & Aslin, 2012; Téglás et al., 2011), concepts and categories, and word meanings.
Deficient capacity hypothesis- One possible explanation for failing to wait for a larger reward is a deficiency in self-control; some children are simply incapable of inhibiting their immediate-response tendency to seek gratification. Young infants, for example, have not yet developed the executive functions necessary for inhibitory control (e.g., Piaget, 1970), as evidenced by the perseveration errors made by up to 2-year-old children in A-Not-B tasks (e.g., Marcovitch & Zelazo, 1999; Piaget, 1954). As predicted by this theory, children’s ability to delay gratification improves with maturation (e.g., Mischel & Metzner, 1962). Maturational changes, however, are insufficient to account for all of the variance in task performance (e.g., Romer, Duckworth, Sznitzman, & Park, 2010). Individual differences in children’s capacities for self-control may account for the remaining variance.
Rational decision-making hypothesis- Another possibility is that the variance in children’s performance may be due to differences in children’s expectations and beliefs (Mahrer, 1956; Mischel, 1961; Mischel & Staub, 1965). Under this theory, children engage in rational decision-making about whether to wait for the second marshmallow. This implicit process of making rational decisions is based upon beliefs that the child acquired before entering the testing room. The basis for this theory centers on what it means to be rational in the context of the marshmallow task.
In support of this second hypothesis, we present evidence that the reliability of the experimenter in the testing environment influences children’s wait-times during the marshmallow task. Half of the children observed evidence that the researcher was reliable in advance of the marshmallow task, while half observed evidence that she was unreliable. If children employ a rational process in deciding whether or not to eat the first marshmallow, we expect children in the reliable condition to be significantly more likely to wait than those in the unreliable condition. Our experiment provides a fundamental test of this perspective on children’s rational behavior and provides compelling evidence that young children are indeed capable of delaying gratification in the face of temptation when provided with evidence that waiting will pay off.
Art project task- Before the marshmallow task, children were first provided with evidence about the reliability of the researcher through the completion of a two-part art project involving a Create-Your-Own-Cup kit (with which children could decorate a blank paper slip to be inserted into a special cup). Each of the project’s two parts involved a crucial choice. In Choice 1, the child could either use well-used crayons or wait for a new set of art supplies. In Choice 2, the child could either use one small sticker or wait for a new set of better stickers. Upon arrival, children were escorted to the ‘‘art project room’’ that was not part of the normal lab space and where parents could covertly observe them from the main lab space.
For Choice 1, the researcher presented the child with a small set of well-used crayons in a tightly sealed widemouth jar. The researcher explained that the child could use the crayons now, or wait until the researcher returned with a brand-new set of exciting art supplies to use instead. The researcher then placed the tightly sealed crayon jar in the center of the table and left the child alone in the room to wait for 2.5 min. Though we wanted children to ostensibly have a choice, we wanted them to choose to wait. Thus, the chosen container was intentionally difficult to open. This manipulation was successful, and all children waited the full 2.5 min without using the well-used crayons. In the unreliable condition, the researcher returned without the promised art set and provided the following explanation: ‘‘I’m sorry, but I made a mistake. We don’t have any other art supplies after all. But why don’t you just use these instead?’’ The researcher then helped the child open the jar of well-used crayons. In the reliable condition, the researcher returned with a rotating tray featuring a large assortment of exciting art supplies. (See Appendix A.1 for full scripted dialog.) In both conditions, the researcher encouraged the child to draw for 2 min
For Choice 2, the researcher produced a round 1/4-in. reward-style sticker from their pocket sealed inside of a plastic envelope. The researcher explained that they could use the small sticker now, or wait until the researcher returned with a larger number of better stickers to use instead. The researcher then placed the small sealed sticker in the center of the table and left the child alone in the room to wait for 2.5 min. As in Choice 1, the sticker packaging was also difficult-to-open by design: the sticker was glued down and covertly sealed inside the plastic envelope with superglue. This preparation was ultimately unnecessary, however, as children were so occupied with drawing during this delay that they did not examine the sticker. This manipulation was also successful, and all children waited the full 2.5 min. without using the 1/4-in. rewardstyle sticker. In the unreliable condition, the researcher returned without the promised stickers and provided the following explanation: ‘‘I’m sorry, but I made a mistake. We don’t have any other stickers after all. But why don’t you just use this one instead?’’ The researcher then offered assistance to the child in opening the sealed sticker package, and then covertly swapped it out for an identical usable version. In the reliable condition, the researcher returnedwith 5–7 large die-cut stickers featuring a desirable theme (e.g., Toy Story, Disney Princesses). Unbeknownst to the child, the caretaker selected that set of stickers to be especially desirable in advance of the study. In both conditions, the researcher then encouraged the child to work on their drawing for 2 min. Thus, children were provided with two sources of evidence that the experimenter—and more generally the testing situation—was either unreliable or reliable.
Marshmallow task The marshmallow task immediately followed the twopart art task. Once the table was cleared, the researcher revealed a single marshmallow to the child and provided the following explanation: ‘‘You finished just in time, because now it’s snack time! You have a choice for your snack. You can eat this one marshmallow right now. Or—if you can wait for me to go get more marshmallows from the other room—you can have two marshmallows to eat instead. How does that sound? [Response.] Okay, I’m going to go get more marshmallows from the other room and turn your picture into a cup! You should stay right here in that chair. Can you do that? [Response.] I’ll leave this [marshmallow] here, and if you haven’t eaten it when I come back, you can have two marshmallows instead!’’
The researcher placed the marshmallow directly in front of the child, 4 in. from the table’s edge. The researcher then quickly collected the art materials and drawing and exited the room. The child was left alone in the room, while under covert observation via webcam, until either they consumed the marshmallow or until 15 min had elapsed. Regardless of whether they waited, each child was ultimately given three additional marshmallows at the conclusion of the study. We note that this final portion of the experimental procedure is slightly different from those used by the studies analyzed in Shoda et al. (1990). Major features of the delay situation are identical; however we did not require children to explicitly signal their desire to stop waiting before eating the lesser treat. The original paradigms involved training children to expect that the experimenter would return upon use of an explicit signal (e.g., ringing a bell). Since this would necessarily provide children with additional information about the experimenter’s reliability (as well as add time and complication to our already lengthy experimental procedure), we omitted it. As an additional benefit, this simplified procedure ensures that even very young children could quickly and easily understand the task.
Mean wait-times are shown in Fig. 1. Because the task was terminated at 15 min, children who had not eaten the marshmallow may have waited longer if the experimental design had permitted. Thus, this analysis is a conservative estimate of the true difference between the two conditions. Children in the unreliable condition waited without eating the marshmallow for a mean duration of 3 min and 2 s (M = 181.57 s). In contrast, children in the reliable condition waited 12 min and 2 s (M = 722.43 s). A Wilcoxon rank-sum test (also known as a Mann–Whitney Wilcoxon or a Mann–Whitney U) confirmed that this difference was highly significant (W = 22.5, p < 0.0005). Thus, children in the unreliable condition waited significantly less than those in the reliable condition.
We also conducted a binary analysis of whether children waited the entire 15 min without tasting the marshmallow (Fig. 2). In the unreliable condition, only 1 out of the 14 children (7.1%) waited the full 15 min; in the reliable condition, however, 9 out of the 14 children (64.3%) waited. A two-sample test for equality of proportions with continuity correction at a2-tail = 0.05 (Newcombe, 1998) was highly significant (X2 = 7.62, df = 1, p < 0.006). Thus, children in the unreliable condition were significantly less likely to wait the full 15 min than those in the reliable condition.
The results of our study indicate that young children’s performance on sustained delay-of-gratification tasks can be strongly influenced by rational decision-making processes. If self-control capacity differences were the primary causal mechanism implicated in children’s wait-times, then information about the reliability of the environment should not have affected them. If deficiencies in self-control caused children to eat treats early, then one would expect such deficiencies to be present in the reliable condition as well as in the unreliable condition. The effect we observed is consistent with converging evidence that young children are sensitive to uncertainty about future rewards (Fawcett et al., 2012; Mahrer, 1956; McGuire & Kable, 2012).
We demonstrated that children’s sustained decisions to wait for a greater reward rather than quickly taking a lesser reward are strongly influenced by the reliability of the environment (in this case, the reliability of the researcher’s verbal assurances). More broadly, we have shown that young children’s performance on delay-of-gratification tasks can be strongly influenced by an implicit rational decision-making process.