Economy Flashcards
(14 cards)
What did Mike Smithson note about economic optimism in September 1997?
Despite improving economic figures, it did not help the incumbent government.
What historical comparison was made regarding economic optimism and election results?
In 1997, the Tories had positive economic numbers but were still defeated, just as Labour was struggling in later years despite economic improvements.
What was John Curtice’s view on the impact of the economy on election results?
He argued that if economic recovery determined elections, the Conservatives should have won in 1997.
What was ‘Black Wednesday’ and when did it occur?
On 16 September 1992, Sterling crashed out of the ERM, damaging the Conservative reputation for economic competence.
Why was Black Wednesday particularly damaging to the Conservative Party?
Until then, financial crises had historically happened under Labour governments, making this a major break in political tradition.
How did the government respond to the financial crisis?
By implementing 22 tax rises and spending cuts to control the budget deficit.
Why didn’t the economic recovery after 1992 help the Conservatives?
The recession had been severe, causing long-term economic insecurity and eroding trust in the government.
How did the Conservative Party’s polling numbers change from 1992 to 1997?
August 1992: 41%
March 1994: 24%-28% (depending on methodology)
Final pre-election polls: 33%
1997 Election: 31%
What trend did Gallup’s polls show for Conservative support?
August 1992: 40.5%
June 1995: 20%
Pre-election poll: 33%
What does the polling data suggest about voter behavior?
Voters punished the Conservatives during bad economic times, and the later recovery only provided a limited rebound.
Why did voters prioritize issues like health and education in 1997?
Public service cuts and funding shortages were linked to the early 1990s recession and budget deficits.
What were some of the key voter concerns in April 1996 according to Gallup?
34%: ‘The party was making a mess of the economy.’
66%: ‘The government was undermining the NHS.’
55%: ‘Public services, not just the NHS, were in decline.’
Why did the Conservatives struggle to regain trust even after economic recovery?
The public remained anxious about job security, declining property values, and public service funding.
What major political crises contributed to the Conservative decline?
Mine closures deemed ‘unlawful and irrational’ by the High Court.
Child Support Agency failures.
Mad Cow Disease (BSE crisis).
12 ministerial resignations over personal scandals.
