Elections and Incumbency

Question 1

Incumbent presidents in primaries

Answer 1

When an incumbent president runs for re-election, primaries of the president’s party have little coverage. The incumbent president will be re-elected to stand at the presidential election. Before the 1984 election President Ronald Reagan won 99% of the Republican primary vote. Before the 2004 election President George W. Bush won 98% of the Republican primary vote.

Question 2

Challenge during primaries

Answer 2

If there is a strong challenge to the incumbent president in a primary it can harm the president in the presidential election as it shows a lack of support from their own party. President George. H. W. Bush was challenged by Pat Buchanan and won only 72% of the primary vote. President Bush lost the following 1992 presidential election.

Question 3

Incumbency effect

Answer 3

The incumbent president has a strong chance of re-election for a second term as president. The president has strong name recognition with voters. He is likely to be better known than the candidate who they compete with. The president will have large funding to run their campaign because they are an established political candidate who is likely to have many supporting donors.