Elections & Voting Flashcards
(148 cards)
1
Q
Requirements for presidency (Article II)
A
- Natural born US citizen
- At least 35 years old
- Have been resident of US for at least 14 years
2
Q
What does the 22nd amendment state? (1951)
A
President cannot serve more than 2 terms
3
Q
7 stages of presidential elections
A
- Invisible primary
- Primaries & caucuses
- Choosing vice-presidential candidate
- National party conventions
- General election campaign
- Election Day
- Electoral College
4
Q
What is the invisible primary
A
This happens one calendar year before the election. As primary period is so short, recognition, momentum and money must be raised before during the invisible primary.
- A time when candidates announce their candidacy
- Candidates try to get coverage in press (WaPo, NYT)
- Increase their name recognition
- Raise money
- Arrange & organise campaign staff
5
Q
Why is invisible primary important?
A
Evidence:
- Since 1988: Republicans have nominated those who were ahead in opinion polls at the end of IP 6/7 times.
- Since 1988: Democrats have nominated highest opinion poll ranking candidate 4/7 times.
6
Q
What are the 2 functions of a primary?
A
- To show the popularity of candidates
2. To select delegates to go to the National Convention
7
Q
How are delegates awarded?
A
In most states, delegates awarded in proportion to votes. (Proportional primary)
In some republican primaries, whoever gets the most votes wins all the delegates (winner-takes-all primary) - forbidden by democrats
8
Q
When do presidential elections occur?
A
- Every 4 years
2. On the Tuesday after the first Monday in November
9
Q
When did the Senate become an electable branch?
A
17th Amendment 1913
10
Q
What is the invisible primary and when does it take place?
A
The period of time between the fir candidates announcing their run for presidency and the first primary in the January of the election year.
Takes place roughly one calendar year before the election (I.e between January and December of year before the January in the election year when primaries begin)
11
Q
What is the function of the invisible primary?
A
- Raising funds (known as the money primary)
- Name recognition
- Introducing policy
- Garner public support
- Secure high profile endorsement
12
Q
Why is the invisible primary important?
A
Seen as a crucial stage in presidential election campaign as those who raise the most money are often declared favourites for the nomination.
Evidence:
In the last 6 competitive nominations for the GoP, the “winner” of the invisible primary became the nominee on 5 occasions (5/6 successes)
Democratic side: 3/6 times
13
Q
When do presidential runners normally announce candidacy?
A
No formal date but many will announce long before first primary to allow time for their campaign. However fundraising often starts before this.
Earliest was Obama a full 332 days before the first primary election.
2015: Ted Cruz announced 23rd March
14
Q
Example of fundraising before invisible primary
A
Marco Rubio who announced on 13th April 2015 had already established his “Reclaim America” PAC which was fundraising for election in 2014
15
Q
What is an exploratory committee in the presidential nomination process?
A
Increasingly candidates announce the creation of an exploratory committee to prepare for a possible run for presidential nomination.
- Creates great publicity to allow them to assess the public reaction & donor response
16
Q
Negative aspects of invisible primary
A
Early scrutiny for candidates with extensive media exposure can ruin candidates campaigns.
Michelle Bachman 2011 - vaccination comments which led to s significant drop in her donations
Rick Perry 2011 - Slipup regarding government departments he wanted to cut
Herman Cain 2011 - sexual harassment claims
17
Q
Functions of primaries/caucuses
A
- Show popularity of presidential candidates
2. Choose delegates to go the National Party Conventions
18
Q
How are delegates awarded?
A
Party determines how many delegates are allocated to each state.
- Proportional - primary/caucus in which candidates receive a proportion of delegates based on their level of support. Usually involves a minimum threshold - 15% of vote to get any delegates
- Winner takes all - primary caucus in which winning candidate receives all delegates. Only GOP since Dems forbid them.
19
Q
What are caucuses?
A
Informal meetings across the state run by parties to select candidates after hearing representatives of each candidate debate/answer questions.
20
Q
Semi-closed primary/caucus
A
Registered party supporters and independents can vote
21
Q
Open primary
A
All registered voters can participate
22
Q
Closed primary/caucus
A
Only registered party supporters can vote.
23
Q
Why are the earlier primaries/caucuses so influential?
A
Candidates drop out during the process.
Some candidates may have amassed more the. Half the available delegates before some primaries are held. Eg Mitt Romney declared presumptive nominee on 25th April before California & Texas primaries.
By 5th Feb 2008, 55% of delegates to Dem & GoP conventions and been chosen.
24
Q
What is front loading?
A
As early primaries/caucuses are so influential, some states ignore party wishes and schedule their primaries/caucuses earlier in the year in an attempt to increase their importance in the choosing of candidates.
25
Front loading evidence
1. Number of states holding primaries/caucuses before end of March has increased from 11 in 1980 to 42 in 2008.
2. Florida Democratic Party in 2008 attempted to front load and was punished by the national party by awarding the Florida delegates only 1/2 a vote at the National Convention.
26
Why do national parties punish front loading?
They want an extensive process to test candidates effectively snd provide more opportunities for fundraising.
27
What is Super Tuesday?
A day when a large number of states hold their primaries/caucuses.
Important as results of this day often establish a clear front-runner.
28
Are all delegates binded?
Some primaries/caucuses are 'advisory' meaning that they do not bind the delegates.
29
Advantages of primaries
1. Protects democratic principle of public participation.
2. Allows initially weak candidates to build momentum thus preventing the nomination being solely decided on "winner" of invisible primary (i.e most money raised)
3. Staggered system tests the candidates rigorously, ensuring the strongest & most electable candidate is nominated. Weeds out weak candidates.
4. Protects voices of smaller states like New Hampshire since Texas & California are later in the process so they can't dominate the process.
5. Removes the power of the national party and party bosses who dominate caucuses as state parties determine how their delegates are allocated.
6. Increases level of participation by ordinary voters. Turnout in primaries tend to be higher than caucuses. 31.9% of eligible voters voted in primaries in 2008.
6.
30
Disadvantages of primaries
1. Turnout is usually very low with less than 20% of voters.
2. Staggered system breeds political inequality as voters in later states have less influence than earlier states. Eg mitt Romney presumptive nomination before Texas and California primaries (2 most populous states)
3. Different processes/types of primaries/caucuses makes the process unequal.
4. Voters in primaries are typically unrepresentative of general election voters. They tend to be elderly, ideological, wealthy.
5. States with closed primaries disenfranchise registered independent voters.
6. Two earliest states have too much influence and are highly unrepresentative of general population. Policies are tailored to these states.
7. Open primaries lead to party crashing and sabotage. Eg "Operation Hilarity"
31
What is the McGovern-Fraser commission?
Commission to reform the nomination process.
- recommended greater transparency over how states chose delegates
32
What was the outcome of the McGovern-Fraser commission?
Helped to raise participation with reforms that expanded primaries.
33
Turnout of primaries vs caucuses
Primaries turnout are greater than caucuses due to:
1. Greater privacy
2. Less time consuming
34
Turnout of primaries
2012 primaries had lowest ever turnout of 15.3%
| 2008 had 31.9%
35
Turnout of caucuses
2012 Iowa caucus had its highest ever turnout of 5.4%. One of the most influential states.
2008 Iowa had a record turnout of 8 x the average with 16.3%
36
Why does the primary/caucus system lock out moderate candidates,
Voters tend to be more affluent, educated, elderly and ideological.
This distorts results as it allows more ideological candidates to do week which doesn't represent majority of centrists.
37
Common reform proposals.
1. National primary
2. Regional primaries
3. Limits on fundraising
4. Primaries in order of state size
38
Criticisms of reform proposals
1. National Committee and Conventions of both parties would have to agree.
2. 50 states would have to agree to change their laws
3. A number of states favour this current system or oppose certain proposals.
4. Expenses
39
What are national party conventions?
Meeting held every 4 years to confirm presidential & Vice Presidential candidates and finalise party platform.
40
Function of party convention
1. Select the party's nomination for President as delegates vote for their preferred candidate. (Mere formality as nominee will be known well before the convention and declared presumptive nominee)
2. Select party's nomination for Vice President. (Formality again)
3. Decide party platform
41
Informal purposes of the party convention?
1. Demonstrates party unity. Especially important after divisive primary contest as in 2008 between Obama and Clinton. Clinton interrupted delegate voting and asked that all delegates proclaim unanimously that Obama was nominee.
2. Communicating with the voters.
- as the conventions are major media events, candidates can communicate their message to the voters. Eg last night of the 2012 dem convention drew 35.7 million viewers.
3. Fundraising. - national spotlight on each party for a week provides opportunity to fund raise for the presidential election itself. Critics such as journo Ted Koppel declared of 1996 GoP convention: "more of an infomercial than a news event"
42
What criteria does a presidential candidate use to select his running mate?
Presidential candidates attempt to "balance the ticket" meaning that they choose someone who is different in terms of (to broaden appeal to voters):
1. Geographic origin
2. Political experience
3. Age
2. Maybe gender, race and religion
43
Examples of balancing the ticket
Obama chose Joe Biden who was older and more experienced.
John McCain chose Sarah Palin who was younger, female and less experienced.
44
Why are party conventions more scripted now?
1968 democratic convention saw anti war protests outside turn into violent clashes.
Delegates were divided over nomination of Hubert Humphrey.
This was broadcast on TV giving the idea that the democrats were divided and unelectable thus damaging their image and reputation.
45
What are super delegates and why were they introduced?
The Hunt commission in 1980 recommended restoring power of party leaders in influencing the selection process by reserving spaces at the convention for super delegates.
These are often elected politicians who are given a vote ex officio. Highly influential in outcome eg 2008 Clinton vs Obama. Accounted for 20% of delegate votes at 2008 democratic convention.
46
Are National conventions still significant? (No)
1. Largely ceremonial
2. Presidential candidates are known and chosen in primaries
3. Parties try to lay scripted conventions devoid of controversy and hence interest
4. Party platform largely known before convention
47
Are national conventions still significant? (Yes)
1. Party unity
2. Energise supporters and party activists
3. Communication with voters
4. Fundraising
5. Convention Bump/bounce
48
What is the convention bump?
Increase in support in polls following a convention.
| On average candidates enjoy a 5% increase in poll ratings after acceptance speech
49
What were the first 3 attempts at campaign finance reform?
Tillman Act 1907 - Banned corporations from donations to federal campaigns
Smith-Connally Act 1943 - Banned Trade unions from donating to federal campaigns.
Taft-Hartley Act 1947 - extended this ban to primary elections
50
In what way did were campaign finance regulations evaded initially?
PAC's were formed which are separate groups that can collect donations from individuals for use in supporting campaigns
First ever PAC in 1944 - Congress of Industrial Organization created PAC to campaign in support of President Roosevelt's re election.
51
What was the Federal Election Campaign Act 1971?
Required greater transparency in campaign finance through disclosure of donations
- Candidates, parties and PACs had to report donations of over $100
- Spending limits were introduced for candidates & their family members
- Caps introduced on TV advertising.
52
What was the Revenue Act 1971?
An act that attempted to reduce dependency on wealthy donors by introducing public funding for campaigns.
Candidates were offered public funds ($20 million inflation adjusted) but were then no longer entitled to accept private donations.
53
What effect did the watergate scandal have in campaign finance history?
Campaign funds to Nixon were used to breach the DNC offices.
| Prompted further reform.
54
What was the Federal Election Campaign Act 1974?
1. Established the FEC to enforce & regulate campaign finance regulations.
2. Limited individual donations to candidates
3. Limited PAC's donations.
4. Banned foreign contributions
5. Extended public financing to primary elections as well
6. Matching funds were introduced on the condition that spending limits would be enforced
55
Explain the impact of Buckley vs Valeo 1976
Senator James Buckley challenged FECA 1974 arguing that it violates 1st amendment rights to free speech.
Supreme Court agreed that limits on candidates spending violated 1st amendment as money is a form of free speech.
The judges argued that campaign finance laws could only restrict speech that "EXPRESSLY ADVOCATED" for the election/defeat of a candidate.
As long as adverts avoided phrases such as "vote for", "support", "vote against" and "reject" they would be exempt from all laws.
56
What issue did the Buckley vs Valeo 1976 ruling create?
The rise of issue advocacy was a loophole. Parties took advantage and thus by 1996, 90% of issue ads were mentioning candidates by name.
57
What is "express advocacy" and "issue advocacy"
"Express advocacy" - clearly calling for election or defeat of a candidate
"Issue advocacy" - ads attempting to educate the public on an issue
58
What was the Federal Election Campaign Act 1979?
Allowed individuals, unions and corporations to give unlimited donations to parties as long as the money was not used for elections.
'Soft money' - supposed to be used for party building, admin costs and voter registration drives.
59
What problem did the FECA 1979 create?
Issue of 'soft money'
60
What were the 3 problems with campaign finance by the 2000s?
1. PACs
2. Issue ads
3. Soft money
61
What was the bipartisan campaign reform act 2002 (McCain-Fiengold Act 2002)
An act that attempted to reform the 3 issues with finance.
1. Banned national party committees from raising & spending 'soft money'.
2. Banned labor unions & corporate groups from funding issue ads ("electioneering communication") - defined as TV or radio ads that name a federal candidate and are broadcast within 60 days of election/30 days of primary
3. Increased limits on individual contribution to individual candidates
4. "Stand by your Ad" provision resulting in all campaign ads including a verbal endorsement by the candidate ("I am ... & I approve this message")
62
Which groups emerged as a result of the McCain-Fiengold Act 2002?
527 groups
| 501(c) 4
63
What are 527 groups?
Emerged in 2003/2004:
- ideological groups not allowed to endorse a candidate
- can accept unlimited sums but must disclose donors
- not regulated by FEC as they only focus on issue ads
E.g swift boat veterans for truth - John Kerry ad
64
What are 501(c) 4 groups?
Emerged in 2007/2008
- social welfare groups that spend majority of time on non political activities
- can keep donors anonymous
- loophole allows them to campaign politically as long as it isn't their primary focus
65
What happened in McConnell vs FEC 2003?
SC upheld majority of the McCain-Fiengold Act
| - ruled that ban on unlimited donations (soft money) did not violate free speech
66
What happened in Citizens Utd vs FEC 2010?
Supreme Court became more conservative since 2003.
Ruled 5-4 that any restrictions on how much corporations, unions and PACs can spend is unconstitutional.
Whilst Buckley vs Valeo entitled individuals the right to free speech through money, this case extended this right to corporations and unions.
Thus they ruled that corporations and unions have first amendment rights.
67
What did the judges say in citizens United vs FEC ?
Money does not give rise to corruption since corporations are spending INDEPENDENTLY & not giving to candidate directly thus there is no exchange of money meaning that there cannot be an exchange of political favours.
68
Which groups emerged as a result of Citizens United vs FEC?
Super PACs
69
What are super PACs
Groups that can raise unlimited donations from corporations, individuals and unions
BUT
cannot donate to candidates directly. Can spend INDEPENDENTLY to support/oppose candidates in TV or radio ads.
70
Difference between PACs and super PACs
PACs
- limited donations from individuals directly to candidates
Super PACs
- unlimited donations from corps, unions & individuals BUT not directly to candidates. Can spend independently.
71
How influential are super PACs?
2012 election cycle:
- 1310 super PACs had raised $828 million dollars
"Restore our future" - Largest PAC spent $142 million on Romney
"Priorities USA Action" - spent $42 million on Obama
72
Negative aspect of Super PAC influence
Top 1% of donors accounted for 68% of all the money raised
- wealthy elite had a lot of influence in the election rather than the general electorate
73
What happened in McClutcheon vs FEC 2014?
Struck down restrictions limiting the total amount an individual could donate to different candidates over a 2 year period.
Lifted the overall cap on donations to individual campaigns
74
Which candidate was the first ever to reject public financing for the election?
Obama in 2008.
McCain used public funding and Obama outspent him 2:1
75
Presidential debates are important (5)
1. Only time candidates get to address voters unfiltered for 90 minutes at a time.
2. Very large audience viewing. 67 million in 2012. 66 in 1960.
3. Sound bites played over and over
4. Important for challengers
5. Can change the direction of a campaign (eg first debate in 2012 gave Romney a boost in opinion poll ratings)
76
Presidential debates aren't important (5)
1. Rarely have any impact on outcome of election. 2012 first debate winner was Romney.
2. Style is more important than substance. Most memorable points are trivial
3. Usually confirm the position of the front runner in the race
4. Viewing figures decline for later debates
5. Not true debates. Candidates give rehearsed answers
77
What is the electoral college?
Institution established by the Founding Fathers to elect the president.
78
How many ECV's are there?
Number of ECV's of a state = Number of congressional representatives.
Total = 538 (as DC has the minimum number of 3)
79
How is the presidency won?
By winning an absolute majority of ECV's - 270
80
How many states allocate ECV's on a winner-takes-all basis?
48 states allocate all ECV's to the winner.
For example, in 2012, Obama won 50.1% of the popular vote yet won all of Florida's 29 ECV's.
81
What is the 'Maine-Nebraska' system?
An alternative method used for allocating ECVs.
1 ECV is allocated for a popular vote victory in each congressional district and a further 2 for the overall winner in the state.
82
What are faithless electors?
Since neither the Constitution or Federal Law requires ECVs to honour the way their state voted, there have been rare occasions when an ECV votes contrary to a pledge.
Some states have laws punishing faithless electors.
83
What happens if no candidate wins 270 ECVs?
President would be elected by the House of Representatives, each state having 1 vote. Total of 50 votes.
The Vice-President would be elected by the Senate - each Senator having 1 vote. Total of 100 votes.
Absolute majority of votes in both chambers.
84
Has the electoral college ever failed to produce a winner?
Only 2 times in 1800 and 1824.
85
Strengths of the Electoral College
1. Preserves the voice of the smaller states as they are effectively "over-represented"
2. Prevents an urban-centric victory by preventing a candidate from becoming President by simply winning in heavily populated urban areas. They must make a wide geographic appeal. Particularly problematic in US where 25 states have population density of less than 100 people per square mile.
3. Maintains the federal character of the nation. If there was no electoral college, there would be no role for the states. Forces candidates to pay attention to small states. Having no state involvement in the process would be to change what was Constitutionally envisaged as states themselves elect the President.
4. Promotes a 2 party system which is stable and thus better than a system of constant flux. In turn it promotes a 2 horse race which ensures that the winner has a mandate.
5. Despite critiques of depressed participation, there is little evidence of this. In 2012, Minnesota the state with the highest turnout at 76.1% and Hawaii the state with the lowest turnout at 44.5% were both safe Democratic states suggesting voter participation has little connection the Electoral College.
6. Electoral college is part of the Constitutional framework and was supported by the founding fathers. It should be maintained.
86
Weaknesses of the Electoral College
1. Small states are over represented and large states are under-represented meaning that they exert disproportionate influence. This results in politically unequal votes in different states. For example, based on population, if California was apportioned ECV's on the same basis as Wyoming, it would have 180 ECVs rather than 55. This is one of the reasons that Bush managed to win despite losing popular vote.
2. Disproportional outcome with the popular vote. On 3 occasions (latest being 2000) the candidate who won the election lost the popular vote. Theoretically a candidate could win the electoral college while winning only 22% of the nationwide popular vote.
3. Disproportionate influence of "swing states".
- Vast majority of states are "safe". 40/50 in 2012
- Candidates focus on swing states to win all of the ECV's given the winner-takes-all system.
- 2004, more than 1/4 of television ad money was spent in Florida alone (largest swing state)
- 2012 Obama campaign had 790 field offices in US overall but in 25 safe states they only had 1.
- Thus only 10 states determine the outcome, effectively disenfranchising the safe states.
- 99.6% of Obama's TV ad money was spent in 10 states whilst 99.9% of Romney's was spent in 10 states.
4. Discourages voter participation.
- In safe states, voter turnout is low.
- National turnout in 2012 was 57.5%
- In Texas turnout was 50.1% compared to Florida's 64%
5. Unfair to 3rd parties.
- Due to winner-takes-all system, 3rd parties are at a disadvantage.
- Ross Perot won 19% of the vote in 1992 but 0 ECVs.
6. Winner-takes-all exaggerates/distorts the result giving candidates artificially strong mandate.
- E.g in 2012, Obama won 52% of the vote yet 68% of the ECVs.
7. Faithless electors can also be an issue.
- Evident in 2000 and 2004. Total of 157 in history.
8. System used in case of ECV deadlock could result in House choosing a president of one party and Senate choosing vice president of another party.
87
What was the significance of the 2000 presidential election?
Despite the fact that Al Gore had won the popular vote, Bush won the Presidency with more electoral college votes at 271-266.
Gore won the electors of most of the highly populous states where as Bush won most of the least populous states (which are the majority).
Displayed some major faults with the Electoral College system.
88
Name 3 possible reforms to the Electoral College
1. Replace winner-takes-all with Maine-Nebraska system.
However, not always good - had 2012 election used this system Romney would have won despite losing popular vote by 5 million.
2. Tougher laws prohibiting 'faithless electors' from spoiling the election
3. Abolish the Electoral College and replace with a national popular vote.
- problem with this is that it may encourage a multi-candidate election with the winner not having a majority.
89
How strong is party affiliation?
In 2012, 70% of registered voters identified with one of the 2 major parties.
92% of Democrats supported Obama
93% of Republicans supported Romney.
90
In what way does gender play a role in voting behavior?
Women are more likely to be registered and to vote.
Women are more likely to vote democrat. They were seen as a crucial part of Obama's success voting 55-44% for Obama in 2012.
91
What is the "gender gap"
Men tend to be more supportive of Republicans whereas women tend to support Democrats.
Evident in 2012 where men voted for Romney 52%-45% and women voted for Obama 55%-44%
92
What are the reasons for this "gender gap"?
Largely based on the stance of the 2 major parties.
On issues such as abortion, women's rights, defence, gun control and law and order women favour the Democratic policies since the Dems are pro-choice, favour low spending on defence, oppose capital punishment, support gun control and Democrats supported the Women's Equal Rights Amendment whilst GoP opposed it.
93
In what way does age play a role in voting behaviour?
Democrats tend to have support from the youth.
Republicans tend to have support from the elderly.
Polls suggest young voters have more liberal positions which are in line with the Democrats.
HOWEVER, the youth vote is very racially and ethnically diverse.
Young voters are less religious and are part of the new liberal generation under Clinton "the Millenial Generation" as opposed to "Generation X" under Reagan.
94
Does marriage play a role in voting behaviour?
Romney had more support with married men & women whilst Obama had more support with unmarried men & women.
Married voters tend to be:
- White
- Higher income
- Older
- Religious
95
In what way does race play a role in voting behaviour?
| African Americans
African Americans (10% of electorate) have since the 1960s given solid support to the Democratic party. Changed from Republicans to Dems because of FDR's 'New Deal' that helped poor AAs in 1930s and because Kennedy & Johnson got congress to pass civil rights legislation.
In the 9 presidential elections between 1980 and 2012, AAs never gave less than 83% support to the Democrats.
In 2012 - 93%
96
In what way does race play a role in voting behaviour?
| Hispanics
Hispanics are a diverse group.
Cuban-americans tend to support Republican candidates whereas other hispanic groups in California tend to support Democrats.
In 2000 and 2004 elections, the Republicans were courting the hispanic vote.
1996 - 20% of hispanics voted for Republican
2004 - 43% voted for Bush
2012 - 27% for Romney (decreased)
97
In what way does religion play a role in voting behaviour?
| Protestant
Protestants likely to vote Republican.
2012 - 57% voted for Romney
2008 - 54% voted for McCain
98
In what way does religion play a role in voting behaviour?
| Catholic
Catholics tend to vote for Democrat though not as strongly as before.
2012 - Obama won 50% of Catholic vote (Romney won 48)
2004 - Bush won majority of Catholic voters (52%)
Pro-choice position of Dems has been a liability with Catholic voters.
99
In what way does religion play a role in voting behaviour?
| Jewish
Jewish voters tend to vote for Democratic party solidly.
Clinton received 78% of Jewish vote in both his elections
Given a majority of votes to Democrats in every presidential election since World War II.
2000 - they gave 79% support to Al Gore
100
In general does religion affect voting behaviour?
2000 election showed a correlation between those with high attendance at religious services and those voting Republican (63% voted for Bush) but this correlation was not as strong in 2012.
101
In what way does wealth play a role in voting behaviour?
Strong correlation between wealth and support for parties.
Clinton had highest support amongst lower earning class and lowest support amongst the higher earning classes.
2004 - Kerry won 63% of poorest voters whilst only 41% of wealthy
- Bush won 58% of wealthy and only 36% of the poor
2008 - Obama won a majority among both the poor and the rich! (73%) poor and 52% weathy
102
How does geographical region affect voting behaviour?
Northeast tends to support democrats.
- Declining region which is bad for democrats as fewer people means they have less support.
South is solidly Republican since the 1960s.
- South is a growing regions which is good for the Republicans
West tends to support Democrats
- California, Oregon and Washington voted solidly for Clinton. Obama and Kerry both won all 3 of these states.
Midwest is battleground in modern elections.
- Obama won the midwest 54%-44% in 2008.
- Michigan and Ohio are important states.
- Ohio has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1964
103
What was significant about Obama's incumbency and re-election?
Incumbent presidents tend to win re-election with a more significant margin.
Obama won with a smaller share of the vote and ECVs than 2008..
Obama's approval ratings have been hisotorically low averaging 49.1% job approval during his first term (low for post-WW2 presidents). Only Carter and Ford has lower averages and they lost re-election.
104
How strong is the power of incumbency in presidential elections?
Since the 1980s, every president other than Bush Senior have won re-election.
105
In congressional elections, why were Senators originally appointed for 6 years?
House would represent the people and thus be elected every 2 years to ensure democracy.
However, founding fathers feared too much democracy would lead to mob rule. The senate was appointed to ensure additional checks and balances and thus 6 year terms provided stable appointments away from public pressure.
106
What is the locality rule?
State law that requires members of the House of Representatives to be residents of the congressional district they represent (not just the state).
107
In congressional primaries, how many incumbent house members and senators lost nomination?
Between 1992 - 2012 only 62 House members and 8 senators lost re-nomination primaries.
108
What is the power of incumbency?
Sitting congressmen have a much higher likelihood of victory than challengers.
Between 1998-2004, 98% of incumbents won re-election
2010 was an exception as many incumbents lost their seats due to Obamacare.
109
Incumbency in the House
Re-election rates of incumbents have exceeded 90% in 9/12 of the last congressional elections.
HOWEVER, dropped to a low in 2010 House elections at 87%
110
Incumbency in the Senate
Incumbency rates in the senate are almost always over 80% with a high of 96% in 2004 and a low of 76% in 2006.
In 2002, only 4 challengers were able to defeat incumbent members of Congress, lowest ever.
111
What advantages do incumbents have?
1. Name recognition
2. Funding from previous campaigns
3. Gerrymandering
4. Pork-barrelling
5. Corporations and PACs trying to further their agenda will usually give more money to incumbents because of their high likelihood of winning.
112
What is pork-barrelling?
Appropriation of government spending for projects secured solely or primarily to bring money to a representative's district.
In other words, bringing spending and jobs to their city.
113
Examples of pork-barrel politics
1. Tom Harkin: Tom Harkin Educational Front
| 2. In 2014, $2.7 billion dollars of the yearly budget was used in spending by individual legislators
114
What are presidential coat-tails?
The effect of a strong President of a party helping congressional candidates of the same party get elected at the same time.
During congressional elections, a strong & popular president can 'lift' the party's congressional vote.
E.g 2008 Obama's popularity helped Democrats gain 21 seats in House and 8 in senate.
115
Criticism of coat-tails
Limited effect and had not been seen before Obama since Reagan.
Even under Obama, the Democratic vote only increased by 0.9% in 2008
116
What is split-ticket voting?
The practice of voting for candidates of different parties for different offices.
In 2012 just 26 congressional districts (under 6%) voted differently for presidential and house elections.
In 1998, GoP actively campaigned for this to ensure the re-election of a GoP congress.
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What can split-ticket voting result in?
Divided government where one party controls the Executive whilst the other holds Congress.
Last 2 years of Bush's presidency, Last 2 years of Obama's Presidency. Very common
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What are the 2 reasons for the decline in competitive seats in the House elections?
1. Incumbents in safe seats tend to vote in a way that pleases voters from their own party thus increasing partisanship.
2. Incumbent members in safe seats have more to fear from an intra-party challenge in a primary than from an inter-party challenge in the general election.
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How does turnout differ between midterms and presidential year elections?
Turnout is much lower in midterms whose voters are older/whiter.
GoP have an advantage here.
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What is gerrymandering?
Manipulating district boundaries to create partisan advantage for your party.
Particularly advantageous for incumbents as they are more likely to be re-elected in manipulated districts.
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In what other way does gerrymandering harm the system?
Can be used to hinder or help a particular demographic.
E.g producing a district with a majority of minorities "majority-minority districts"
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Example of gerrymandering
Texas 2003 - Tom DeLay had deliberately re-drawn congressional district boundaries to dilute the influence of heavily democratic areas.
Good example of "cracking" - attempting to divide an area which votes for your opponent in a number of different districts
Opposite is "packing" where a party concentrates its supporters into 1 district to create safe seats.
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Example of incumbent advantage
2012 - 10 representatives didn't face a major party opponent.
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Why are midterms important?
President's party tends to lose seats in mid-term elections.
These elections can be perceived as a "referendum" on the president.
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In what way are the midterms seen as a referendum on the President?
2010/2014 midterms highlight this.
2010 - Democrats suffered massive defeats in many national and state level elections. GoP gained 63 seats in the House recapturing the majority. This was the largest ever seat change since 1948.
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What effect did the 1994 midterms have on Clinton's term?
GOP scored victory during Clinton's first term. Despite the fact that Clinton was a centrist, the GOP controlled legislature forced his presidency to the right socially and economically as income taxes were reduced and conservative welfare reforms were pushed through.
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Evidence for midterms being a referendum on the president up to 2010
More than 80% of disapprovers vote for the opposing party.
In the 2010 midterms, 6 in 10 voters said their vote was partly to either express support for or opposition to Obama.
Obama had approval ratings of 44% at midterms and ended up losing the House as the Democrats suffered massively to a GOP victory in the House.
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Examples of turnout in midterms (year) vs turnout in presidential years (- year)
2014: 36.4% (Worst turnout in 72 years)
- 2012: 59%
2010: 42%
- 2008: 63%
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Evidence for midterms being a referendum on president in terms of approval ratings
```
Clinton 1994: 44% - Losses in the House
Clinton 1998: 55% - Wins in the House
Bush 2002: 64% - Wins in the House
Bush 2006: 43% - Losses in the House
Obama 2010: 44% - Losses in the House
Obama 2014: 40% - Losses in the House
```
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Arguments against midterms being a referendum on the president
1. Popular presidents lost midterms too. Reagan in 1986.
2. Losses by president's party may be attributable to absence of coattails which had won party seats.
3. Record of congressional leadership e.g Republican's campaigns against the Pelosi-Reid agenda in 2010.
4. Individual candidate's campaigns. E.g scandals involving Democrats Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters involved in illegal conduct.
5.
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Arguments for midterms being a referendum on the performance of the president.
1. President's party has lost congressional seats in all but 3 midterms in last 100 years.
2. Since 1994, more nationalised campaigns and elections in which the president's record impacted the whole party
3. Approval ratings
4. 2002 midterms due to Bush's response to 9/11 and tax cuts.
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What is a proposition/initiative?
Proposal of a new law or constitutional amendment that is placed on the ballot by petition.
24 states use this process. 18 of these allow initiatives to propose constitutional amendments.
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Examples of propositions/initiatives
1. Ban on same-sex marriage approved in 7 states. Virginia 2006, California 2008 (Proposition 8).
2. Increase in state minimum wage level approved in 6 states including Montana 2006.
3.
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Advantages of propositions
1. Increase voter turnout.
2. Increase public participation and pressure group membership
3. Increase accountability of state legislatures
4. Provide a way of enacting reforms on controversial issues that state legislatures are unwilling or unable to act upon.
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Disadvantages of propositions
1. Lack flexibility of legislative process
| 2. Vulnerable to manipulation by special interests
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What is a referendum?
A proposal to repeal a law that was enacted by the state legislature. This can be placed on the ballot by citizen petition.
Available in 24 states.
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What is a legislative measure/proposition
A proposal placed on the ballot by the legislature.
These are accepted by all states and are much more common and twice as likely to be approved.
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Why is the FEC itself hindering campaign finance regulation?
Leader of the FEC Ann M. Ravel explains that the partisan gridlock between the agency's 6 commissioners along party lines have left it dysfunctional.
Leader says there will not be any real enforcement in the 2016 election.
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Estimates from the FEC on 2016 presidential campaign spending
$10 billion dollars with the conservative Koch brothers alone spending just under 1 billion
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Pressure group influence in propositions/initiatives
1.
2014 Amendment 67 in Colorado which failed was pushing to include unborn human beings to be considered persons in criminal code.
- Personhood Colorado was the group behind the initiative and Planned Parenthood campaigned on the opposite side.
2. Proposition 8 in California. Debate was dominated by pressure groups and religious organisations such as ProtectMarriage.com and Equality for All group.
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Recent examples of initiatives and referendumS
2012 Colorado and Washington State legalisation of marijuana
2014 legalisation of Marijuana in DC referendum.
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State's rights and initiatives
Initiatives/Referendums provide an avenue for states rights. Recent results such as legalisation of marijuana conflict with the federal law which states that marijuana is illegal.
However, federal government could not claim constitutional right to enforce federal law over state law as they did in Gonzales v Raich 2005 where SC declared that the Federal Drug Enforcement Agency could destroy California's legal medical marijuana crops.
2014- Obama declared that federal government would not seek to intervene in state laws surrounding marijuana.
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What is the significance of initiatives/referendums as opposed to federal campaigning?
It may be more effective to limit the impact of federal legislation through state-based initiatives. Many pro-life groups have attempted to limit Roe v Wade by restricting abortion at a state level through direct democracy.
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How likely is it that incumbents will be defeated in congressional primaries?
Very unlikely. Between 1992 - 2012 only 62 house members and 8 senators defeated in congressional primaries
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Evidence of coattails
Reagan : 33 seats House and 12 senate
Obama : 21 seats in House and 8 in senate
Many said Obama was first president since Reagan to have genuine coattails
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Evidence of split ticket voting
1996 Clinton re- election with election of republican majorities in congress
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Why is there a decrease in competitive races in the House?
2004 - only 31 seats
- 93% of house seats were safe.
2 consequences:
1. Incumbents vote to please voters from their party leading to increased partisanship
2. House members in safe seats have more to fear from intra-party challenges in primaries
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In the 96 year period until 2010 how many seats on average did a presidents party lose in midterms?
30 in the house
| 4 in senate
