ELECTORAL SYSTEMS Flashcards
(60 cards)
1
Q
disadvantages of AMS (with examples)
A
- difficult to obtain a large majority, meaning it is easy to default to a coalition government
- 4x more likely in wales since 1999 - overhang of seats
- some parties may be regionally very strong, but locally very weak, meaning when the regional vote corrects the FPTP vote, over-amplification is given to these parties
- dominance of large parties in top up - power of political parties on the selection of candidates
- political parties have the power to create party lists
- reduction of voter choice bc parties choose the lists of candidates (less representative / accountable)
- politicians may be more accountable to party than voters, given they decide if they should be on the system
- there is tension between constituency and list MSPs (IE BRIAN WILSON CLAIMS)
- can be seen by margot mcdonald - complications
- having 2 votes allows people to easily be confused about what each vote means
- 2019 = 1 million regional MSP votes, but only 2 seats
- limited bi-elections
2
Q
what are the key words to use when describing the FPTP system
A
- adversarial
- decisive and dominant 2 party system
- tactical voting
- safe seats
- duverger’s law
3
Q
examples of FPTP not always promoting strong government
A
- some elections result in coalition governments which weakens the government
- ie john major only had a majority of 21
4
Q
describe the STV system
A
- areas are broken up into constituencies, and each constituency will have multiple members
- voters will place their vote in preferential order on the ballot paper
- the total number of votes are counted
- the droop quota is used
- ballots are counted based on first-preference votes, and if you reach the quota threshold you are given a seat
- surplus votes from that candidate are then redistributed
- votes are recounted to see if anyone gets up to the threshold
- candidates with the least amount of votes are then eliminated and their votes are redistributed
5
Q
what is cube law
A
- suggests that the party getting the most votes is over-represented and the party getting the fewest votes is under-represented
- exaggeration of the winner
6
Q
what is duverger’s law
A
the idea which supports a dominant 2 party system, with the notion that it will be either one of 2 parties who will influence control
7
Q
referendums are and are not representative
A
representative:
- public consulted on key issues
- require majority - idea of legitimacy
- settles issues which the public deem as important
- offset impact of FPTP and fusion of powers
not representative:
- too much power to parliamentarians
- referendums stray away from the original question (ie lisbon treaty became about abortion OR AV REFERENDUM)
8
Q
evidence displaying wasted votes in general elections
A
2015 = 74.4% of votes were wasted
2017 = 22 million votes were wasted
- 60,000 votes were wasted in bristol west in 2019
9
Q
plan for if refs have not and have had a big impact on political life
A
big impact:
1. impact on elections + social division - become a key election point (refs divide society)
2. decreased apathy and boosted voter engagement
not big impact:
1. participation - minimal engagement
2. referendums have not divided society
10
Q
describe voting patterns for specific parties
A
- labour wins support in city and metropolitan areas
- conservatives have many safe seats, due to their popularity in countryside areas
- labour rarely wins marginal seats, conservatives win many marginal seats because they have concentrated support in the countryside, whereas labour is more dispersed, aside from city areas
11
Q
why should we retain FPTP and explain
A
- simplicity / familiarity
- only need to tick one box, avoid donkey voting - strong and stable governments are formed - the weaker party is removed under DL
- ensures manifesto promises are fulfilled, flagship legislation, survive full term
- these types of government have more legitimacy
- only 35% of gov last less than 4 years - strong constituency and MP link to promote accountability and representation
- these are single member districts for full accountability and no breakdown in relations - limits extremist parties and radical parties from having an over-amplified influence
- system means you must have someone’s first preference
12
Q
give and rank the 4 criteria to analyse electoral systems under FPTP
A
- proportionality
- not good for proportionality
- it allows someone to win on a minority of votes
- it favours large parties and sidelines small parties
- forces small parties to have concentrated support
- there is a national and regional imbalance - voter choice
- low voter choice + only one vote + no ranking of parties
- system of safe seats
- people vote tactically - how likely is a coalition government
- rare
- creates decisive majorities due to the disproportional element - what is the link between constituency and candidate
- strong constituency + MP link because the MP will represent a relatively small area
13
Q
election results with no strong mandate and vote all in different ways
A
- scottish independence ref = 45-55%
- brexit = leave = 52%, remain = 48%
- AV referendum = 66% no, 32% yes
14
Q
where is the system of AMS used
A
- welsh assembly
- scottish parliament
- elections for the greater london assembly
15
Q
define referendums
A
- non binding political agreements on one specific issue
- must be approved by parliament - not a unilateral thing
- typically on constitutional changes and large scale political reform
16
Q
give 3 key stats from the 2024 election
A
1 because you only need 1 more vote than your opposition, in havant, conservatives won 30.8% of vote, labour won 30.6%
17
Q
define marginal and safe seats
A
marginal:
- when the majority won by the candidate in that area is less decisive / large
- means the seat is fluid / can change
(only 88 in 2015)
safe seat:
- when the candidate wins with a significant majority over the second placed candidate
18
Q
where is the SV system used
A
- in london mayoral elections
- police and crime commissionersc
19
Q
disadvantages of SV (with examples)
A
- high number of wasted votes
- produces voter apathy
- ie 2012 = 1.7 million votes cast + only 185,000 were tallied bc that was only needed for a majority
- anything more than 51% is a wasted vote
- winner doesn’t need above 50% - apathy??
- people choose not to cast a second vote
- over 400,000 on average per election express no second preference
- 200,000 choose the same 1st and 2nd candidate - encourages tactical voting
- 85% of preferences were cast for the top 2 candidate to divide their support
- voters have to guess the top 2 voters
20
Q
evidence for FPTP system not being proportionate
A
- government can win a majority of seats without a majority of votes - FPTP accentuates the number of seats for a winning party
- 2024 = 33% and 174 majority
- 2001 = 40% of vote for 167 majority
- 1983 = 42% of vote for 143 majority
- governments may lack legitimacy - small parties require concentrated support to beat large parties (ie lib dems)
- 2015 = UKIP = 3.8 million votes and 12% of vote but 1 seat
- 2005 = lib dems only win 12% less votes than labour but 45% less seats
- in 2024, the greens needed 800,000 votes to elect a single MP for each national party, conservatives needed 38,000 votes - 2 party dominance
- 2010 = lab + tory vote share = 65% but they won 87% of seats
21
Q
referendums good for participation stats
A
- specific issue = ideological alignment
- allows for an informed electorate
- ie brexit referendum had turnout of 72%
- 2014 scottish independence referendum = 84% turnout
- 1998 good friday agreement referendum = 81% turnout
- increase voter choice and give legitimacy on key questions
- give government mandate they need
22
Q
d’hondt formula
A
the overall region list vote / number of seats allocated + 1
23
Q
advantages of SV (with examples)
A
- simplicity
- no need to number your vote, only an X
- disencourages apathy - representation
- politicians need to be more moderate and have a wider base of support
- promotes positive campaigning style and much more extensive voter choice - accountability
- clear MP and constituency link
24
Q
how does FPTP not favour small parties
A
- require concentrated support
(ie lib dems in 2024 get 72 seats and 12%, reform gets 14% and 12 seats) - SNP in 2015 get 5% and 56 seats, reform gets 12% and 1
25
coalition government under AMS
- ie green and SNP coalition whereby yousaf had to end the coalition
- 2007 + 2011 = labour + plaid cymru coalition
- scottish gov = 1999-2007 lib dem + labour coalition
- welsh coalition - 2016-2021 under labour + lib dem
- voters don't vote to have a coalition
26
paragraph structure on if referendums are good for democracy / enhance the democratic process
1. PARTICIPATION
- direct democracy
2. REPRESENTATION
3. ACCOUNTABILITY
- does the government act on this change?
27
advantages of AMS (with examples)
1. it is extremely proportional
2. strong governments can be formed out of this system
- bc of 2 voting methods of FPTP and a closed list voting system
- 2011 scottish parliament elections = SNP win 53% of the vote, and 2021 = 49%
- 2011 + 2021 welsh assembly = labour won 50%
3. constituent-representative link
- FPTP element in each constituency seat means there is one MP accountable for each constituency
- frequent elections means opportunity for input into if they should be an incumbent
4. minor parties still have representation
scotland = SNP and green coalition - 8 seats for the greens increases representation
- wales = plaid cymru formed a coalition with labour in 2007 + 2011
- forces governments to work together
- greens = won no constituencies in 2021, but 8 seats from a top-up system
- coalitions allow for representation
5. less wasted votes
- even if a constituency vote is wasted, the regional vote is still effective
- ability for split ticket voting (ie 2021 scottish parliament elections = 1.2 million constituency votes for SNP, but only 1 million regional list votes = 200,000 people voted for different parties)
- encourages higher voter turnout (ie turnout increasing from 33% in 2000 to 46% in 2016)
- each person = 1x effective vote
28
describe the FPTP system
- in the UK, there are 650 seats in parliament + 650 constituencies
- to win the seat, members of the constituency (60,000) will vote for one party listed
- the party who wins the most votes wins the seat
- you do NOT need a majority, you just need more votes
- one party can win a majority of seats on a minority of the vote
- is a single member constituency (only one MP)
29
describe the AMS system in detail
- there is an election every 4 years
- scotland is split into CONSTITUENCIES (small) and REGIONS (larger)
- in scotland there are 73 constituencies and 8 regions, but the 8 regions will have 7 MSPs within them
- it is a system of FPTP and proportionality (it is a hybrid system)
- voters have 2 votes to elect an MSP
- members in the small constituencies are elected under FPTP, so voters vote once for a single individual, one with most votes wins (plurality)
- multi-member REGIONS are elected under a closed party system, and voters choose a party
- the d'hondt formula will calculate results, and decides which parties elect MSPs
- parties can get top up members if they don't have enough seats proportional
- the 2nd vote will counteract the first vote and make it more proportional (bc the first vote is under FPTP)
- determines how many members a party in the parliament should be designated
(scottish parliament has 129 members, 73 are elected members of their constituency, 56 of these are list members)
30
disadvantages of STV (with examples)
1. voter apathy
- it is too complicated and will often lead to the idea of donkey voting
- in scotland in 2017 elections, 2% of votes were invalid, but only 0.2% for FPTP
- ie in ireland in 2019 - a party ran 3 candidates in the same district (and they did this 46 times), the 1st candidate was successful 91% of the time
2. weak government and instability
- easy to form a coalition
- in the NI assembly elections, sinn fein only won 30% of seats
- in local scottish elections, in 2022, 94% of councils had no overall control
- only 5 regions actually saw a majority elected
- north antrim in 2022 = 5 parties elected
3. difficult representation
- voters are only politically active during election time, meaning that there is limited connection and accountability between voters and the candidate all year round
- constituencies are also significantly larger, which makes constant representation and understanding of the electorate difficult
- ie women councillors in 2007 = 22% in 2017 = 29%
4. slower
- transfer of power is not as efficient as a system like FPTP
- typically takes a few days, not hours
5. weaker constituent and representative link
- larger geographical area
- multiple MSPs
31
why should we not retain FPTP and explain
1. lacks proportionality
- 2024 election results
- the difference in the share of the vote to obtain seats
- idea of differences needed between small and big parties
2. you do not need a majority to win a seat, which infringes on your legitimacy
- 2010 = 2/3 of MPs didn't win a majority
3. promotes safe seats and a system of voter apathy
- people tactically vote instead
- lower voter turnout (manchester central = 47% in 2015)
- limited voter choice
- enhances a dominant 2 party system
4. votes are of unequal value and often wasted
32
where is the system of STV used
- irish assembly elections
- scottish local elections
33
evidence for the FPTP system being proportionate
- lib dems in 2024 = 11% of the seats and 12% of the vote
- SNP in 2024 = 1.5% of seats and 2.5% of the vote
- in 1997, the number of third-party seats increased from 44-75
34
describe the SV system
- there are 2 columns with candidate names
- voters place an X next to their favourite and preferential candidate, and another X next to their next favourite candidate
- it is optional to choose a second box
- favourite votes are counted, and to win, the candidate must get above 50%
- if no candidates get over 50%, it is a run off between the top 2 candidates
- every candidate except top 2 (after initial voting) are eliminated and votes are distributed
- the candidate with the most votes wins
35
advantages of STV (with examples)
1. less wasted votes
- people not only vote in preference, but their vote is always redistributed, not just cast off
- choose between parties or candidates of same party
2. proportionality
- increasing legitimacy
ie 2022 northern irish assembly election = sinn fein win 29% of votes and 30% of seats
3. increasing voter choice
- there are multiple representatives in the constituency, and chances of having your candidate are high
- increases ideological affiliation
- ie in northern ireland in 2022, north antrim had 5 different parties elected
- independents can also be elected
4. minimal safe seats
- no voter apathy, or minimal apathy (high turnout)
- competitive seats
- the safest seat is belfast west, in which sinn fein only won 53% of the vote
- turnout in belfast west was 59% in 2019
5. positive campaigning
- candidates must appeal to a broad range of voters
- leads to an adoption of more moderate politics and less voter exclusion
36
define plurality not majority vote
means that the candidate has the most votes out of everyone, and only needs one more vote than their opponent, rather than over 50% of the vote
37
nature of the SV system
- not proportional
- it is majoritarian and preferential (need over 50% to win)
- was switched back to FPTP in 2022
38
advantages of FPTP (with examples)
1. does not favour radical and extremist parties
- brexit, UKIP in 2015
- a party must win concentrated, not scattered support to beat a major party
(2010 = BNP win 1.9% of national vote and no seats, only finished 3rd in barking)
2. produces stable government
- clear winner, implement manifesto pledge and democratic legitimacy
- produces a clear and decisive majority
- clear majority = stay the full term
- promotes ideological unity
(ie 1997 = blair gets an 179 seat majority and maintains power until 2005) - continuity of policy + allows for benefit to be seen
- 65% of gov last the full term
- large dominant opposition to hold government to account
3. good constituency-representative link
- MPs represent a single constituency which are small in size
- clear accountability of MP to voter - electorate choose at next election to keep incumbent (mark reckless in 2014)
- means there is a closer relationship + more knowledge of MP actions
- MP is also more aware of local problems
- average constituency is 60,000 in size
- ie lizz truss in 2024 in south west norfolk for 14 years
- lammy report
4. easy transfer of power
39
referendums not good for participation stats
- people are not interested in such niche and small issues
- 2012 birmingham directly elected mayor referendum (metro mayors) = only 27% turnout
- 1998 greater london authority referendum = 34% turnout
40
what is the droop quota
- the minimum number of votes a party needs to win in a particular area to guarantee they win at least one seat
- it creates a quota at each stage of an election which stipulates how many votes a candidate must reach to get through to the next round
41
election results with strong mandate and vote all in one way
1. NI sovereignty ref 1973 = 98%
2. 1979 welsh devolution ref = 80%
42
what is donkey voting
voting for candidates in the order they appear on the ballot paper
43
what are the proportional electoral systems
- AMS
- STV (local scottish elections)
- SV
44
what is the spoiler effect
- when a third party is brought in, purely in order to prevent their ideologically similar opponent from winning
- voters will cast their vote which will allow an ideologically opposed party to win that seat
- ie in 2024, reform broke into 21% of the tory vote share, thereby splitting the right wing vote between these parties, delivering a more decisive majority to labour
45
what % of the vote did reform take from the conservatives in 2024
21%
- radical and third parties can erode support of the 2 dominant parties, as there is competition between those within the right wing - split vote
46
what are the functions of elections
1. to understand public opinion to form a government
2. ensure representation
3. ensure legitimacy of government
47
disadvantages of FPTP (with examples)
1. lacks proportionality + dominant 2 party system
- does not favour small parties + is not representative of these voters
- small parties need more votes than larger parties per seat won
- ie lib dema win 5% more votes in 2019 + lose a seat
- one dimensional divide (ie 82% in 2017)
2. allows for tactical voting
- people will vote for the
- 2019 = 19% of people were planning on tactically voting
- websites such as gettoriesout and vote tactically
- 1/3 voters in 2024 voted tactically
3. creates safe seats / wasted votes
- only choice between 2 parties
- votes are not of equal value (it is more valuable to vote in a marginal seat)
- recognition of unequal votes leads to voter apathy (no legitimacy + lower turnout)
4. creates an elective dictatorship
- too much power of gov bc of majority
- gives power to exec also in leg - amplifies political power and policy demands
48
examples of AMS being proportional
- 2021 scottish parliament elections = SNP = 43% total of the vote, wins 49% of seats in parliament
- 2021 scottish parliament elections = conservatives win 23% of the total vote, and 24% of the total seats
- ensures each party has an equally amplified vote
- ie under FPTP, greens get 1 seat in 2019, but would get 38 under AMS because their support is concentrated
- more diversity (ie 2 more female MSPs than westminster, and ethnic minority MPs (ie humdan yousaf)
49
referendums do and do not promote accountability
accountability:
- scale of change requires consensus and consent
- it is a legitimate + direct vote by public (parties do not assume support based on election)
- clear answers + forced to follow through on to ambiguous questions (ie david cameron resigning)
- forced to commit to voters outside election time
- force government hand (ie in a coalition)
no accountability:
- power of the party to bring such large scale change
- weapon of entrenchment
- tactical device of government (only brought by government)
50
AV ref vote on lib dems
- lib dems agree with the conservatives to increase uni tuition, against their campaign promises
- later, lib dems have a referendum for the AV system, which 68% say no
- lib dems compromise collective government responsibility for this
- displays voting against the party, NOT the policy
51
safe seat stats in FPTP
- 25 million people live in safe seats
- ie safe seat in Bootle gets 65% turnout, but a marginal seat in east dunbartonshire has 80% turnout
- only 70 seats in 2017 changed hands out of 650
- only 1/5 seats change hands in 2010
52
elected dictatorship in FPTP
- ie starmer in 2024 only had 33% of the vote and an 174 seat majority
- 2001 = 40% of the vote gave blair an 167 seat majority - continuation of his administration
- power with no mandate
53
less wasted votes in STV
- limits voter apathy
- people will rarely vote tactically bc there are no safe seats
- no tactical voting
- 63% turnout in 2022 northern ireland
54
number of UK constituencies deemed as safe seats in 2017
56% of constituencies
- 368/650
2019 = 120/650 seats
55
vote share of conservatives and lib dem in 2019
tory = win 43% of vote but 52% of seats,
lib dem = 11.5% vote and 1.7% seats
56
vote share of SNP and reform in 2024
2024 = SNP get 720,000 votes + 9 seats
= Reform with 4.1 million votes + 5 seats
57
balanced seat distribution in scottish parliament election
labour win 38% constituency vote, and 33% regional vote
58
turnout under AMS and STV in wales, scotland and northern ireland
wales = 46% in 2001
northern ireland = 63% in 2022
scotland = 63% in 2021
59
opinion polls boost voter turnout
60
opinion polls do not boost voter turnout
