EOS 170 III Flashcards

(306 cards)

1
Q

when was Fort MacMurray 2016 fire extinguished

A

after 2017 snow melt

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2
Q

what is a fire hazard

A

a woodland fire directly impacts humans

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3
Q

examples of how fires impact human activity

A
  • wildland-urban interference
  • threaten economic activity
  • forestry, mining, pipelines, communications
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4
Q

how does forestry impact fire hazard

A

Forestry invests in monoculture tree farms, primarily pine

-monoculture easy to burn

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5
Q

Physical fire hazard modelling

A

relies on understanding of physical processes

  • must know fuels, terrain, weather
  • use radiation, convection
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6
Q

empirical modelling of fire hazard

A

statistical relationship btw observed fire behaviour and input variables

  • do not have to rely on physics
  • relate behaviour to observed
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7
Q

physical modelling advantages

A

widespread applicability

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8
Q

empirical modelling advantages

A

-easy to implement

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9
Q

physical modelling disadvantage

A

-must have thorough understanding of physical processes

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10
Q

empirical modelling disadvantage

A
  • model tied to calibration data/area

- not good widespread (highly variable env’ts)

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11
Q

fire behaviour modelling vectors

A
  • terrain / topography
  • weather
  • fuel
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12
Q

Fire behaviour modelling, topography

A
  • most stable
  • slope gradient
  • aspect
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13
Q

Fire behaviour modelling, weather

A
  • standard meteorological conditions

- may add historic data

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14
Q

Fire behaviour modelling, fuel

A
  • most complez
  • species, forest structure, complexity
  • coarse woody debris (forest floor)
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15
Q

slope gradient

A

first derivative of elevation

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16
Q

aspect

A

direction of maximum slope

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17
Q

SWI

A

soil wetness index

-complex metric combining upslope drainage area and gradient

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18
Q

fuel typing

A
  • vegetation type (grassland, deciduous, etc)

- stand structure (height, density, leaf area, height, age)

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19
Q

Fire fuel mapping

A
  • MODIS, optical sensor, 250m res
  • LANDSAT, os, 30m res
  • RADARSAT, microwave sensor, variable res
  • Airborne Imaging RADAR, ms, variable res
  • LiDAR
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20
Q

LiDAR

A

Light Detection and Ranging

  • pulsed laser beam
  • high frequency
  • measures very detailed heights
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21
Q

Modelling caveats

A
  • output detail = input detail

- output accuracy - product of input variable errors

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22
Q

weather

A
  • meteorological conditions
  • short-term processes
  • localized
  • temperature, precipitation, wind at a given time and place
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23
Q

climate

A
  • meteorological conditions
  • T, precip, wind that characteristically prevail in a region
  • long-term processes
  • regional
  • statistics of weather
  • weather averaged over t for a region
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24
Q

weather changes on short-long t scales due to

A
  • meteorological conditions (moving air masses)
  • daily T changes
  • seasonal variation
  • climate change
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25
Natural climate change
- polar continents - continents aligned N-S - variations in solar heating/ sun spots (11-110 yr cycles) - Milankovitch cycles
26
Natural climate change, polar continents
= increased albedo = lower global T
27
Natural climate change, N-S aligned continents
= ocean circulation bringing warm water to high lats = increased precip. -- increased glaciation - lower global T
28
Milankovitch cycles
- variation in E's orbital properties - eccentricity - tilt - wobble
29
atmospheric circulation cells
- 3 cells per hemisphere | - driven by solar E, cold air sinking, weak horizontal P gradient at equator
30
circulation cell closest to equator
Hadley cell
31
Hadley cell
- warm air rises at eq. - atmospheric instability -- thunderstorms, latent heat released - latent heat drives hadley cell
32
latent heat
- E release as water vapour changes to liquid water droplets | - surrounding air becomes warm and moist
33
Polar front
- typically 30º - surface high P causes ground air to diverge - air mass descends to replace diverging air - clear skies, dry air - warm moist vs cold dry = gradient = front at 45º
34
coriolis
- movement deflected to right in NH - increases w/ objects horizontal speed - zero at equator, increases towards poles
35
eccentricity
- changes in earths orbit - 100,000 yr cycle - more elliptical = larger variability in season length
36
large eccentricity coincides with
broad glacial cycles
37
orbital tilt
- change in inclination of earths spin axis - 41,000 yr cycle - 21.5 - 24.5 - currently 23.5
38
greater orbital tilt
- greater seasonal extremes - colder winter, warmer summer - decreased glaciation
39
orbital wobble
change in spin-axis direction - 19-23,000 yr cycle - precession of the equinoxes - changes extremeness of seasons
40
current orbital wobble
E closest to sun during NH winter - milder winters and summers in N than S
41
greenhouse effect
- INSOLATION as shortwave radiation heats E - longwave radiates back to space - greenhouse gases capture longwave (IR, heat) preventing loss
42
Earths T without greenhouse gases
-18º (average)
43
Earth's T with GHGs
16º (average)
44
Mars T
-53º (no GHG)
45
Venus T
480º (excess GHG)
46
greenhouse gases
``` H2O CO2 CH4 N2O O3 CFCs ```
47
anthropogenic GHGs
- burning fossil fuels (CO2) - decomp, cattle, rice (CH4) - fertilizer, auto combustion (N2O) - undustrial gases (O3, smog) - coolents (CFCs)
48
Climate change in BC
- Pacific too warm for salmon - increased wildfires and length of fire season - more winter precip., more spring floods, landslides, avalanche
49
4/5 of most costly Canadian disasters 1900-2005
drought
50
top 3 deadliest Canadian disasters
1. influenza, 1918-1925, 50,000 deaths 2. halifax explosion, 1917, 1900 deaths 3. heat wave, 1936, 1200 deaths
51
drought can cause
- economic loss: crops, pastures, livestock, water | - famine, death
52
common cause of drought
- entrenched high pressure ridge - descending warm dry air mass desiccates land - high P ridge block moist air flow
53
'Dirty 30's'
- severe drought during 1930s - 40% less rainfall - non-drought resistant crops died, did not protect erosion - immense dust storms blew away top soil - millions of acres of farmland ruined - thousands of livestock died - 1/4 million people abandoned farms
54
heat-related deaths in Canada
1940s - 50/yr 1970s - 7/yr present- none
55
1936 Canada heat wave
- 1180 deaths - 44º in Manitoba, Ontario, 50º in Kansas - night-time min. >25º - rail lines warped - road surfaces melted in >65º sun
56
2003 European heat wave
- 35000 died - worst heat wave in 150 yrs - 10º hotter than 2001 - 14,800 deaths in France - 7000 Germany - 4000 Spain - 4000 Italy - 2000 UK
57
2003 European heat wave, France
- 14,800 deaths - no AC, nights usually cool - stone/concrete homes - radiate absorbed heat and cool at night - high night min.s prevented cooling - early Aug, many away on Vacation, left elderly home alone to parish
58
heat wave predictions
- more frequent, more severe - exacerbated w/ urbanization - AC reduces hazard
59
thunderstorms kill, injure, damage by
- lightning - fires - hail - wind - rain, flash floods
60
thunderstorm stages
cumulus mature dissipating
61
highest average number of days/yr w/ thunderstorms
southern interior of country - 25 around Edmonton, regina, toronto - least near coasts and in North
62
lightning worldwide
100 strikes/s | 9 million strikes/day
63
lightning in Canada
``` 3 mill flashes/yr 10 deaths/yr 125 injuries/yr 3 light. fire deaths/yr -male deaths 5X fm ```
64
lightning deaths
- more in CAD/US than any other natural hazard - less publicized b/c smaller groups, damage - death rate decreasing
65
lightning cause
- updraft/downdraft collisions btw super-cooled water and ice crystals cause electric charge separation - collision transfer + charge to ice, - to water-ice mixture - updraft drive ice up = + accumulation at top - gravity pulls water-ice down = - accumulation at bottom - induces opposite charge accumulation in ground
66
water-ice mixture in thundercloud
graupel
67
Lightning strike is
-electrical discharge btw opposite charge accumulations
68
lightning strikes occur
- btw cloud and ground - btw clouds - w/i cloud
69
lightning speed
>10,000 km/s | creates T 30,000º
70
thunder
rapid thermal expansion of air from 30,000º T
71
lightning groundstroke
-connection of stepped leader and positive streamer establishes channel of ionized air = low resistance path
72
stepped leader
(-)electrons stream from cloud-Earth in 50m jumps (stepped leader)
73
postive streamer
-as near E, positive streamer initiated upward, connecting 50m above surface
74
lightning groundstroke, return stroke
high-current flow of +charge from E-cloud along ionized path = bright flash
75
what to do in case of lightning
- follow warnings - avoid elevated, exposed location - get into car, don't touch sides - crouch down on ground - stay 5m away from others
76
lightning 30/30 rule
- if time btw lightning and thunder less than 30s, take shelter (30s = 10km) - wait 30min after last lightning flash before leaving shelter
77
what not to do in lightning
- shelter under tree, near metal fence, in tent w/ poles, in cave - walk under power lines, along rails, highway w/ guards - go swimming - stay near open window - use electric devices - wash dishes, take shower - use land-lines
78
Hail
- layered ice ball formed in thunderstorms w/ large vertical T contrast - cycle up/down through cloud until too heavy - add most of mast - hail clouds often dark w/ green tinge
79
hail distribution
- require cold air at elevation - most common in prairies, central BC - AB 'hailstorm alley' lee side of rockies - highest hail rates in world
80
hailstone sizes
- compared to common objects - CD 128mm - softball 114mm - Grapefruit 102mm - baseball 70mm - Egg 50mm - golfball 44mm - marble 13mm - pea-size 6.4mm
81
Hail terminal velocity
- max speed - balance of g acceleration vs air drag - varies by diameter - 1cm = 9m/s (32km/hr) - 8cm = 48m/s (170km/hr)
82
largest documented hailstone
0.75kg | 28cm diameter
83
hail damage
- rarely injures or kills - one of most expensive natural hazards damages: - cars, aircraft, skylights, glass grooves, kills livestock, destroys crops
84
Canada's deadliest tornadoes
Regina, 1912, 28 deaths Edmonton, 1987, 27d Windsor, 1946, 17d
85
most tornadoes in the world
US - 1000/yr Canada- 100/yr Europe 250/yr
86
most canadian tornadoes
south end of province and BC interior | -very highest in S Ont
87
most tornadoes in US
E side of country
88
tornado classification
Fujita scale -6-level scale -according to storm damage, wind speed F0 - F5
89
F0
light damage - 65-115km/h wind - 28% of all tornadoes - width up to 15m - damages grooves, signs, antennas - break twigs, branches
90
F1
moderate damage - 117-180km/hr - 39% of all tornadoes - width 16-50m - length 1-5km - damage weak structures
91
most intense atmospheric phenomena
Tornado | 500km/hr wind
92
F2
considerable damage - 181-253 km/h - 5-16kmlong, 50-160m wide - destroy mobile homes, tip vehicles, uproot large trees
93
F3
``` severe 254-332 km/h -6% -16-50km long, 160-500m wide -entire roofs, levels trees, lift heavy vehicles ```
94
F4
``` devastating 333-418km/hr -2% -160km long, 1500m wide -well-built building flattened, tossed cars, tree havens, trains flipped ```
95
70% of all tornado deaths
F4, F5
96
F5
``` incredible >419km/h wind -less than 1% -more than 160km long, 1500-5000m wide -few seconds but terrifying strength -buildings disintegrated, rubble carried far, steel damaged, heavy vehicles thrown up to 2km ```
97
tornado formation
3 air masses in different direction cause rotation w/i thunderstorm cloud
98
tornado forming air masses, NA
1. low altitude N flow warm moist air (GoMex) 2.mid-alt. winds to SE of cool dry air 3. high alt., high -speed jet stream winds to E -
99
tornado alley
- US great plains, btw rockies and appalachians | - cold dry rocky air meets warm moist GoMex air, hot dry Sonoran desert air
100
required to spawn tornado
super-cell thunderstorm
101
super-cell thunderstorm
wind shear title thcloud into anvil - warm updraft separated from cool downdraft - more intense thstorm, higher change of tornado
102
single-cell thunderstorm
-moisture condenses from rising hot moist air, falls through cloud = cool downdraft, suppresses updraft, reduces intensity of thunderstorm and chance of tornado
103
tornado damage
- buildings- blow off roofs, gutters, off foundation - battering from airborne projectiles - throw people
104
tornado safety
- listen for warnings - cellar/ basement w/o windows - safe room - safer in a parked vehicle than mobile home
105
1947 super tornado outbreak
- >16 hours - 148 tornadoes in 13 states + Ontario - 6 F5s on ground >50km - 335 deaths - 1200 injuries - >7500 destroyed homes
106
1987 Black Friday tornado, edmonton
Deadliest since 1912 - F4, max winds 330-415km/hr - 40km long path, 1km wide, 1hr on ground - 27 killed, 300 injured, 750 homeless
107
Changing climate in canada, Natural Resources
- new opportunities (North) | - awareness and action most important where clear direct relationship w/ climate (forestry, hydro)
108
Changing climate in canada, food
- increased invasives, diseases - medium-term increase in production - warmer-weather crops grown further north - extended growing period, feeding season for livestock
109
Changing climate in canada, biodiversity
- species distr. shifts - many species cannot adapt fast enough - protected areas, migration corridors imperative - ecological restoration/ mitigation provides resilience
110
Changing climate in canada, human health
- climate-sensitive disease (lyme), vectors - hazards - new tools: heat alert, projection of vector-borne illnesses, greening urban areas
111
long-lived, straight-line wind storm associated with fast-moving severe thunderstorms
Derechos
112
Derechos winds
- gust front/ outflow boundary - sustained winds - increased in strength behind front
113
Derechos occurrance
- US warm-weather phenomenon | - mostly in summer in NH
114
Derechos cause
hurricane-force winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, flash floods
115
Flood:
overflow or accumulation of water that submerges land
116
flooding causes
damage to buildings, roads, bridges, sewers, vehicles - drowning (ppl, livestock) - contamination of water - spreads disease - destroys crops - kills trees - famine
117
Canada floods
- few deaths (ca. 200 in 20th C), 10-15/decade | - increase since 1960s
118
Floods in canada, occurrence
- every month - max: Spring, early summ - min: fall, early winter - every province
119
Most floods in Canada
- ON, QB, NB | - few in North
120
Eliminate flood risk
- move away from water - live near water for food, water, travel, transport, trading, irrigation, recreation, aesthetics - perceived value exceeds risk
121
Flood types
- Hydrometeorological floods - Natural dams - rainfall flood
122
Hydrometeorological floods
- caused by specific weather - rainfall - snowmelt - rain-on-snow - icejam
123
Natural dam flood
-obstructed water flow floods land
124
catastrophic failure of natural dam
outburst flood
125
worldwide, affects more people than any other natural disaster
flooding
126
rainfall flood
-precip > infiltration + carrying capacity of streams/ rivers
127
slow rainfall flood
- sustained heavy rain over large are for 1+ days | - exceed runoff capacity
128
flash flood
- torrential rainfall over short t period (less than 6hr) and small area - saturate ground w/ runoff
129
VI slow flood
2009 - 300 homes evacuated - schools close - high tides flood Duncan - high tides stopped rainwater from draining
130
VI 2009 flood cause
Pineapple express - several days of heavy rain - 250 mm in 24hrs on N island - 8 rivers flooded including cowichan, animo
131
Pineapple express
warm, moist, sub-tropical P air from Hawaii = heavy rains
132
canadian record flash flood
``` Buffalo gap, SK, 1961 -254mm in less than 1hr Toronto, 2005 -153mm + hail -$500M damage ```
133
flash flood fatalities
1/2 - driving
134
driving flood fatalities
- water 0.3 m deep can move vehicle laterally - water 0.6m can float car, roll or flip - road surface can be washed out
135
snowmelt flood
- most common flooding in Canada - generally in spring - water unable to penetrate frozen ground - runs over surface - affects large areas
136
rain-on-snow flood
- combines rainfall w/ snowmelt flood - heavy rain on snow at ca 0º - rain+snow cannot penetrate frozen ground - heavy water-saturated snow damages buildings, roofs, and cause avalanche hazard
137
Icejam flood
- major problem in CAD rivers - accumulation of ice, obstructs river flow - at freeze-up or break-up, worst flooding at break-up
138
common icejqm sites
- river bend - change in slope - bridges, piers
139
rivers particularly vulnerable to icejam
S-> N flowing - S break-up sends ice N where still frozen - ex. St Lawrence, McKenzie, Red River
140
Natural dams formed by
- glaciers - mass movement - lava/ pyroclastic flow
141
catastrophic failure of natural dam
outburst flood
142
outburst flood of glacial origin
Jökulhlaups | -icelandic for 'glacier-burst'
143
Vatnajökull Jökulhlaup
-icelandic volcanism beneath Vat. icecaps maintain sub-glacial lake
144
Vatnajökull Jökulhlaup, 1996
13day eruption filled lake w/ 4km3 of water - lake failed, 3.6km3 discharged in 20hrs - peak 55,000 m3/s (20X rate of Niagra) - 1000 tonne iceblocks - 9m of sediment
145
Vatnajökull Jökulhlaup lake
Grimsvötn
146
Vatnajökull Jökulhlaup damages
- 6km of highway - power, phone lines - 2 concrete and steel bridges
147
Flood frequency plot
- of historical data - to estimate return period for given size flood - river discharge vs return period (yrs) - use for designing roads, bridges, buildings
148
100-yr flod
1% probability of occurring in any year
149
flood safety, before
- build flood resistant - listen for warnings - if time permits, move valuables above ground level, turn off furnace, gas - if imminent, turn off power, plug sewer drains
150
make your home flood resistant
seal ground-floor/basement windows, doors - install drains - install sump pump, one-way valves in drains
151
flood safety, during
- listen to radio | - do not cross flooded area
152
flood safety, after
- wear boots - beware of electrical shock - dispose of food/water exposed to flood (contaminated) - do not move back in until dried, disinfected
153
Flood structural mitigation
- contain waters: dams, levees, floodways | - increase river carrying capacity: deepen, widen channel, remove debris/ obstructions
154
Flood non-structural mitigation
- zoning, land-use policies - education and evacuation planning - improved flood forecasting (satellites, river gauges, etc)
155
Red River
- flows N - drains N/S Dakota, Minnesota, Manitoba - Slowly meanders - broad floodplain - frequently floods
156
Red River flooding causes
- geologically young (less than 9000yrs) -- not carved deep - valley underlain by impermeable red clay - low riverbed slope (8cm/km) - prone to icejams (S->N flow)
157
1950 Winnipeg flood
- snowy winter - late thaw - dike collapse - flooding of 1600 km2 - largest CAD evac., over 100,000 ppl, 1/3 of Winnipeg pop. - 51 day flood - 10,000 bldgs damaged - RR floodway built in response
158
RR Floodway
48km long, 140m wide artificial flood-control waterway around Winnipeg - normally empty - in flood, gates open to divert water around city - built for 1-in-225 yr flood - typically required every 2-3 yrs
159
1997 RR flood
- '96 fall rainfall 4X normal - early cold, froze soil - record winter snow pack - spring blizzard - rapid thaw - N Dakota: 60,000 evacuated, 120,000 cattle drowned, $1B damage - Manitoba: saved by dike, diverted water at (peak) 1400m3/s, nearly overwhelmed dykes
160
Alberta flood, 2013
$5B damages (costliest CAD disaster) - S and central AB - Bow, Elbow, Highwood, Red Deer, Sheep, :little Bow, S Sak. rivers - calgary directly hit - 2200 CAD forces deployed
161
cause of 2013 AB flood
- heavy spring rainfall - low-pressyre system blocked S of AB - resulting air from E pumped moist warm air across semi-arid slopes - heavy rains particularly over Calgary, >300mm - saturated ground, steep watershed, heavy snow load - rivers up to 10X normal flow rate
162
2013 AB flood, impact
- largest evacuation in cities history, 75,000 ppl - days before power restored - central business district off-limits for nearly a weak (very important business hum in CAD) - bonnybrook bridge collapse - 150 ppl stranded on rooftops in High River
163
Boonybrook Bridge Collapse
- under weight of CPR freight train - pilings scoured by floater, undermined strength - train was carrying hazardous petrochemicals
164
what went well in AB flood
- modern construction and codes - good forecasting and governance - social trust - low loss of life despite huge level of destruction - rapid rebuild
165
snowpack on slopes can fail due to gravity as
creep fall slide flow
166
avalanche path
- similar to landslide - A starting zone (steepest, 30-45º) - B Track, guided by topography (20-30º) - C Run-out zone (less than 20º)
167
Avalanche types
Size 1 -5 1. relatively harmless, 10tonnes, 10m, 1kpa 2. could injure or kill, 100t, 100m, 10kpa 3. damage buildings/vehicles, 1000tonnes, 1000m, 100kpa 4. destroy large vehicles, forests, railways, 10,000tonnes, 2000m, 500kpa 5. 100,000 tonnes, 3000m, 1000kpa
168
snowpack
- deposited by multiple storms - layers w/ diff. properties - powder and wet - denser near bottom, with age - hoar frost crystals can grow btw layers
169
snowpack, powder
- 95% void - does not pack - dry, not sticky - doesnt stick together
170
snowpack, wet snow
water between ice | -packs well
171
snowpack layer boundaries
planes of weakness
172
loose powder avalanche
- acts like flow - high speed (65-100km/hr) - light snow - buries victims - largely unharmed, but can smother, disorient
173
slab avalanche
- slab of heavy cohesive mass detaches at layer boundary - acts like translational slide evolving into flow - speed 30-65km/hr - death, destruction - most dangerous
174
avalanche safety -before
- consult avalanche bulletins | - carry avalanche kit
175
avalanche safety - during, after
- escape to side, can't outrun - if caught, ditch backpack, skis, poles - use swimming motion to stay near surface - maintain air pocket in front of face - stay calm
176
avalanche survival rate
- 50% if buried 30min. | - 15% for 2hr burial
177
Extraterrestrial impacts
- asteroids - comets - fragments of asteroid and comets
178
fragments of asteroids and comets
- meteoroid - meteor - meteorite
179
before impacting Earth
meteoroid
180
most impacts
- asteroid fragment | - meteoroid
181
asteroid
- stony, metallic body - orbiting sun in inner solar system - medium sized - smaller than a planet, larger than meteoroid - 1-1000km - sometimes called planetoid, minor planet
182
comet
- small (.1 - 40km diameter) - highly elliptical orbit - nuclei of rock, dust, water ice, frozen gases (CO, CO2, CH4, NH3)
183
meteorite
after impact with Earth
184
Asteroid 'belt'
- 1-2 million asteroids between MVEM (terrestrial) and JSUN (gas giants) - likely 'failed planet'
185
why would asteroid belt be a failed planet
- Jupiter's gravity prevented coalescence | - large gap btw MVEM and JSUN
186
smaller asteroid orbits
3 small groups that intersect E/M orbit - Apollos group (>1000 asteroids) - Aten group - Amors group
187
meteor
while passing through atmosphere
188
Multiple impacts
2+ asteroids can be gravitationally bound
189
asteroid/comet fragment before it impacts Earth
meteoroid
190
Comets in inner SolarSystem SS
- solar radiation vaporizes volatiles in nucleus = tail - tail points away from sun - tail up to 1 AU
191
AU
astronomical unit - distance from sun to E - 150M km
192
Meteorite types
- stony | - Fe-rich
193
Most meteoroids are
chondritic | -burn or break up in atmosphere)
194
meteoroid influx
- 100B meteoroids/day - add 100-1000t to E - number of impacts decrease w/ size
195
angle of impact
important to whether it will burn up
196
of 1mm diameter meteoroids
1/30seconds
197
cosmic dust
less than 1mm diameter | -drifts down gently
198
shooting star
ca. 1mm - melt about 100km above E - glow for about 1s
199
meteorite influx
- 1mm -100m - reach E surface - up to 3000º - slowed by atmos. - 320-640km/hr
200
1m diameter meteoroids
1/yr
201
impacts >350t
pass through atmos. largely unaffected
202
Craters
simple or complex
203
simple crater
- smaller meteorite - raised rim - concave bottom - no uplift
204
Complex crater
- larger meteorite, asteroid, comets - melt/vaporize rock - central uplift from rebound - collapsed outer rim leaves crater 20X larger than impacting body - new mineral formation from high T/P
205
Earth impact craters
- erased by erosion, subduction, cont. collision, infilling of sed. - 164 known, 58 in NA
206
why so many craters in NA
large landmass
207
some Canadian impact craters
- Manicouagan, Quebec, 75km - Lake Wanapitei, Ontario - Pingualuit crater, Quebec
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Tunguska event
1908, Siberia - massive fireball - heard 1000km away - not inhabited - reindeer killed - man 60km away burnt - people 480km away knocked off feet - 80M trees damaged - no impact crater
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what happened in Tunguska event
- stony meteorite or comet frag. - 30-50m diameter - exploded at 8km elevation - blast equivalent to 10-15Mt of TNT , 1000X more powerful than atomic bomb
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KTB
- 65MYa - 1cm clay layer between KT - K rocks have abundant fossils, T do not
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Chelyabinsk meteor
Russia, 2013 - 20m near-E asteroid, miss - 19km/s - light brighter than sun - visible 100km away - exploded in air --> hot dust and gas cloud - blast yield 20X Hiroshima a-bomb
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why did Chelyabinsk explode
high V | shallow entrance angle
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KT extinction
- 85% of species disappeared - dinos, marine reptiles, many plants - many severely reduced numbersL fish, plankton, molluscs - mammals (small), birds, suffered few extinctions
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KT asteroid evidence
- Ir layer around world, 300X normal - clay quartz grains 'shocked' - spherules - radioactive ratios - tsunami deposits in Yucatan peninsula - buried impact crater (Chicxulub)
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How Chicxulub was found
- petroleum well encountered 90m thick zone shattered rock, shocked quartz, globules, dated 65Mya - radar topography indicates 180km ring (trough)
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likely effects of KT impact
- M11 eq - 300m tsunami - worldwide fires - dust, soot clouds block sun for weeks-months - water vapour, CO2 in atmos. cause GH warming - high death rate for many except carrion feeders
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Impact hazards
- rare - no confirmed fatalities - 1 documented injury, Lethbridge 1954 - very small probability of catastrophic (KT size) and large (Tunguska size) impacts - NEOs monitored
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NEOs
- near Earth objects | - could be deflected by NASA
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Space weather
- suns behaviour changes (sunspots, solar winds, magnetic storm) - causes disturbances in E's magnetic field - magnetic storm
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solar cycle
- 11-yr change in suns activity (sunspots, flares, etc) | - causes effects in space, atmosphere, and E's surface
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Magnetic storms
- strong aurora borealis - indicate hazardous charged particles in atmos. - severe storm could disrupt power grids
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Carrington Event
1859 - sunspots observed - southern aurorae observed far N on Australia - solar flares observed - flare associated w/ major coronal mass ejection (CME) that hit E w/i 18hrs - geomagnetic storm next day on E
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Carrington Event, geomagnetic storm
- largest recorded - aurorae around the world, could read by them in US - telegraphs failed, shocked operators
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SWORM
Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation - US task force against space weather - give 0.5 -2 day warning
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Most deadly/destructive weather hazard
Hurricane
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Hurricane effects
- huge areas, up to 4000km2 - high winds, up to 240km/hr - storm surges raising sea level, 6+m - heavy rains
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Tropical cyclone
- powerful rotating low-P system - warm core - form between 5-20º of eq.
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tropical cyclone with 1+ minutes sustained winds > 119km/hr are:
Hurricanes in Atlantic Typhoons in Pacific Cyclones in Indian
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Deadliest worldwide disasters 1970-2011
1. Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1970, 400,000d 2. Eq., China, 1976, 255,000d 3. Eq+tsunami, Indonesia, 2004, 245,000d 4. Eq., Haiti, 2010, 230,000d 5. Cyclone, Myanmar, 2008, 140,000 6. Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1991, 140,000
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Costliest disasters worldwide, 1970-2010
1. Hurricane Katrina, USA, 2005, $50,850 millions of 2010 US dollars 2. Hurricane Andrew, USA, 1992, $25,170 MUS 3. Terrorist attack, US, 2001, $23,409 4. Eq, USA, 1994, $,849 5. Hurricane Ike 6. Hurricane Ivan 7. Hurricane Rita 8. Hurricane Wilman 9. Hurricane Charley
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Canadian deadly Hurricanes, 1900-2011
1. Galveston, Atl., 1900, 80-100d 2. The August Gale, Atl., 1927, 56d 3. Hazel, Atl., 1954, 81d Pacific only has 2 in top 15
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N Atlantic hurricanes
- hurricane season June 1- Nov 30 - peak mid-August- late October - storm diameter 200-1300km - lifespan 1-30 days - direction - W then N - surface winds counter-clockwise
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Hurricanes require
- warm SST (>27ºC in upper 60m) - warm, humid, unstable air - weak upper level wind - coriolis
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forces balanced to produce cyclonic flow
-P gradient - force towards low P eye -Coriolis - perpendicular to motion -Centrifugal - radially outward -Friction - opposes motion NET motion - spiral in
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Hurricane formation stages
1. Tropic disturbance 2. Tropical depression 3. tropical storm 4. Hurricane
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Tropic disturbance
low P zone, draws in thdrstorms - weak winds, 36km/hr - not named
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Tropical depression
- strengthening wind, 27-63km/hr - coriolis causes cyclonic wind flow about low P core - converging winds flow upwards near core, moisture condenses, releasing latent heat, intensified updraft - not named - identified by number
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cyclone direction in SH
clockwise
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Tropical storm
winds 64-118km/hr | -identified by name
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Hurricane
winds >119km/hr - now winds reach core, forms eye - identified by name
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Hurricane eye
- generally circular, 30-65km - calm, clear, low P - surrounded by eyewall
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eyewall
- cylindrical area of upward spiralling winds | - strongest wind of hurricane
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Hurricane decline
when cut off from water water E source - landfall - moving over cold water (Canada)
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Hurricane paths
generally, in NH: 1. start at 10-20ºN 2. trades winds push to west at low lats. 3. coriolis forces push to right 4. westerlies push to East at higher lats. 5. path influenced by bermuda high
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why no hurricanes at 0-10ºN?
no coriolis!
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Bermuda high
high P zone over mid Atlantic
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Hurricane winds
add/subtract wind speed - Hurricane w/ internal wind speed 160km/hr moving NW and 30km/hr - 190km/hr wind speed on ground to the NE - 130km/hr ground speed to SW
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storm surge
rise in sea level due to: - strong onshore winds pileing up water - low atmos. P beneath eye carrying mound of water - very dangerous if coincide w/ high tide
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Maximum storm surge in NH
- 15-30km to right of eye path | - strongest winds
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Cat5 storm surge
>5.5m
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record storm surge
13m, Australia, 1899
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major cause of property damage in NA and death in low-lying countries like Bangladesh
storm surge
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Bangladesh storm surge
7/9 of most deadly weather events in 20th C - deltas 30cm above sea level - 35% of country less than 6m above sea - 5 cyclones/yr - increasing population - increasing sea level
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Hurricane scale
Saffir-Simpson Scale | Cat 1-5
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Hurricane Category 1
Minimal - winds damage trees - 119-154km/h wind - 1.2-1.5m storm surge
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Cat2 Hurricane
moderate - blow down trees - major damage to mobile homes - 155-178km/h wind - 1.8-2.4m SS
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Cat3 Hurricane
extensive - blow down large tress - small buildings destroyed - ca 200km/h wind - 2.7-3.7m SS
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Cat4 Hurricane
``` Extreme -signs blown down -heavy damage to windows, doors, roofs -flooding kms inland -211-250km/hr wind 4-5.5 m SS ```
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Cat5 Hurricane
catastrophic -severe damages, buildings overturned ->250km/hr wind >5.5m SS
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Hurricane Camille
Florida, 1969 - Cat5, >320km/hr wind, 7.3mSS - 256deaths
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Hurricane names
1953-1979 only female names - since 1979 WMO uses preselected list of alternating fm/m names, recycled every 6yrs - names of extreme storms retired (Katrina replaced by Katia, Juan replaced by Joaquin)
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Hurricane safety, before
- listen to warnings - evacuate from coastal area - park in safe place, not under trees - take cover - close/shutter/ board windows - secure items (lawn furniture, bikes) - stock food/water, batteries
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Hurricane safety during
- keep informed - stay in secure room w/o windows - use phone only for emergencies. - stay inside during passage of eye
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hurricane safety, after
- inspect property - report downed lines - take photos of damage
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hurricane mitigation
- Land-use planning: avoid pop. centres in low-lying coastal land - building codes: stronger codes for mobile homes, strengthen rook
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key requirements to prevent hazards from becoming disasters
- good governance allows - affluence to afford - science to inform regulation - and respond - democracies - high trust societies
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2017 Atlantic hurricanes
- hyper active season - 7 named storms, tied for 5th most active season - ACE + number major hurricanes highest since 2005 - costliest year on record - 2nd yr on record w/ 2 Cat5's making landfall - Irma strongest ever outside of GoMex and Caribbean - only yr that 3 hurricanes had ACE >40 (Irma, Jose, Maria)
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ACE
accumulated cyclone energy
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2017 Atl Hurricane cost
US$316.51B | -mostly all due to Harvey, Irma, Maria
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Katrina
2005, New Orleans - costliest natural disaster (pre-2012), $50+B - 6th strongest recorded - 1/5 deadliest storms in IS history - 1800d, 700missing
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2005 hurricane season
one of most active ever - most named storms (28) - most hurricanes (15) - most major hurricanes to hit US (4) - costliest US hurr (Katrina) - costliest Mexican hurr (Wilma)
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New Orleans and Katrina
- 1.2M people - much of city below sea level, estuary, and Mississippi river - protected from lake and river by levees
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Katrina time line
Aug 25: hurricane status 2hr before reaching Florida, surprised, killed 14 Aug 26: 17% chance of hitting NO (by computer models) w/ 8.5m SS Aug 28: reaches Cat5 over GoM (unusually warm waters 28-32º), NO begins evac. Aug 29: landfall 55kmE of NO as Cat3, 195km/hr wind on Miss./Alabama coasts, 8m storm surge screeched levee in 53 places, flooding of 80% of NO
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Was Katrina foreseen
yes - years in advance - by reports, studies, journals, weather forecasts
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Katrina, rain
- extremely heavy local rains as far north as CAD - up to 10cm rain in ON - flooding in ON, QB - 16" in FL 40cm - 15", 28cm in LA
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New Orleans failures
- levee failures forecast, nothing done - weather forecast good, evacuation delayed - failure of leadership at all levels - low trust, corruption
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how could Katrina have been worse
- maintaining CAT4 or 5 - speeding up, earlier landfall - earlier break of levee - faster flooding
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Hurricane Juan
2003, near Halifax - Cat2, 160km/hr at landfall - extensive wind damage to NS, PEI - 8killed - $300M damage - 2m SS - worst storm to hit Halifax in >100yr
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Hurricane Juan damage
- 31% of homes in Halifax damaged - millions of trees damaged or downed - downed power lines - 300,000 w/o power - grounded boats
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Juan retirement
name Juan retired after its effects in Canada in 2004 | -first time CAD requested a name be retired
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Hurricane Juan governance
- well forecast, action taken at all levels - high trust society - ready to respond quickly after event - coherent response at all levels - not perfect, but good
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when did wildfire begin
appears in geo records after land plants evolve - Ordovician - 450Mya
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fire influences
- vegetation distribution, structure - carbon cycle - climate
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Canadian forests
- 10% of worlds forests - Boreal forests 60% of CAD surface area - BC dominated by temperate coniferous - ON, PQ, maritimes are temperate broadleaf
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boreal forest
mixed coniferous and deciduous trees
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Canadian wildfire
- average 2.5million ha /yr | - huge inter annual variability
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1 ha
2.471 acres 10,000m2 100x100m
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fires, chemical reaction
-C-H bonds broken in plants, generating CO2 and H2O | C6H12O6 + 6O2 -> 6CO2 + 6H2O + energy heat
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fire triangle
- 3 elements required for a forest fire to burn - heat, oxygen, fuel - if 1 side of triangle is broken fire will die
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stage of combustion
1. Ignition 2. Preheating 3. Flaming combustion 4. Glowing or smouldering combustion
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Combustion, Ignition
- human or natural - cigaretes, campfires, power-lines, equipment - lightning
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Combustion, preheating
water is expelled from plants by nearby flames and heat
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Flaming combustion
- flames present - charcoal can be formed in absence of sufficient O2 - greatest E release of fire
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glowing combustion
- late stage - slower combustion - blue flame - smoke but no flame - rarely self-sustained
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forest fire classification by what part of forest they are in
1. Ground fire 2. Surface fire 3. crown fire
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ground fire
0ften bellow leaves
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surface fires
up to 1m high
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crown fire
tops of trees
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ladder fuels
- tall grasses, small shrubs - enable ground fires to carry upward into tall trees and form major fires - multiple types of fire at once
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factors that control wildfire starts and spreads
- climate, weather - chemical constituents - insects - topography - people
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climate and weather, fires
- temperature - humidity - wind - lighting - soil moisture - rainfall
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chemical constituents, fires
- some plants have high oil content - easy ignition - eg. eucalyptus - some species more/less resistant to beetle kill - monocultures spread fire more rapidly
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insects, fires
-species such as mountain pine beetle destroy forests = easily combustible dead wood
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Fort McMurray wildfire, 2016
- first time >60,000ppl so remote evacuate for fire in NA - ignited May 1 - burned 600,000ha - $3.6B in insured losses - >2400 buildings destroyed - no deaths from blaze (at least one vehicle crash on evac.) - 33º weather hard for firefighting - humidity 7%, winds 45mph - controlled July 5 - extinguished Aug. 2
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Why the fire in Fort Mc.
- months ahead of typical fire season - low P center brought hot SW winds across FM - record daily highs of 33º - uncommon bad timing - light winter snow, no summer greening yet
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Fire suppression
- remove 1 wall of the triangle - water to remove heat - fire retardant to block oxygen - bulldoze forest to remove fuel