Evaluate The View That The Outcomes Of GE Are Mostly Decided By Election Campaigns Flashcards
(8 cards)
Themes
1) campaign vs competence
2) campaign vs party image (media)
3) campaign vs rational choice
Theme 1: campaign vs competence
FOR campaigns
Many voters only pay attention to politics during election campagins, therefore they can be seen as highly important to election results, especially if key events/gaffes happen during them
E.g 2017 GE, Theresa May announced her plans to change social care so that those receiving care at home would have to contribute to the cost of their tax care to which became her ‘dementia tax’.
TIS as it lead to a massive backlash which damaged the Tory image which dropped within 24 hrs, forcing her into a coalition as a result of hung parliament
Moreover, campaign was important in 2024GE as Reform UK had successful campaigning from a 10% support to a 14% support by the end of campaigning. TIS as it highlighted the Tory’s weakness in their campaigning as they suffer their worst defeat since the 19century.
These examples support the idea of election campaigns deciding the outcomes of GE as it highlights how effective campaigning in the final stretch can contribute to more votes from the public
Theme 1: campaigns vs competence
However
It is the competence of the gov’s performance in power that determines GE not election campaigns.
E.g. 1979 GE, Labour was voted out due to the perception that they were unable to manage the economy after the “winter of discontent”
TIS as it provided the tories w an irresistible theme of “Labour isn’t working”, which spurred people t vote for the tories to push the country into a new direction following the economic and social breakdown of labour ruling, causing them to win a 44 seat majority (269 to 339).
Furthermore TIS as the competence of a party can help shape public trust, economic confidence and stability. When voters beleive a gov is incompetent, they are more likely yo vote for change- especially if the opposition seems more capable.
Overall, the campaign is importantly in how voters decide and events during it can play a role in swinging voters. However, its importance is limited as voters have already decided their vote by evaluating the performance of the gov in previous elections.
Theme 2: campaign vs party image (media)
FOR
It could be argued that campaigning can only work if the image of party leaders are positive, especially since the growth of media.
E.g. in 2019GE, where BoJo used his personal popularity by appearing in frequent media presence, where he showed of his charismatic side coupled with his strong “Get Brexit Done” campaign that led him to win an 80 seat majority and break labour’s “Red Wall”.
TIS as the ‘presidentialisation’ of British politics sine the 1979 election indicates how election campaigns are increasingly shaped by voters perception of the leading figures, as they r in the US, in part due to media focus.
Moreover, the failure of john major’s “Back to Basic” campaign where he tried to present his party as a party of dignity, completely backfired on him as his own MPs were caught in sleaze scandals dubbed by the media e.g. ‘shagger’ Norris, which completely shattered the party’s image.
TIS as it labelled his party as unfit to rule as how does 1 rule a country if he can’t even manage his own Tory MPs?
Theme 2: competence vs party image (media)
HOWEVER
It could be argued that despite a party’s image being strong coupled with effective campaigning it can fail to deliver electoral success.
E.g. in 2010 GE, nick clegg’s “Cleggmania” where he appeared in multiple TV debates and fixturewhich helped boost the Libdem image.
TIS as it exposed the limits of campaigning, no matter how charismatic the leader is and how successful the campaign was, it doesnt lead to a successful outcome as Clegg was still forced into a coalition.
Overall, successful campaigns are strengthened by the party’s image as presented in the media as it can lead to them gaining more votes as seen in the 2019 and 1997GE howver this only applies to the 2 big parties, as smaller parties like the Libdems wouldn’t be able t overcome the FPTP system that favors the 2 big parties, despite positive media and campaigning.
Theme 3: campaign vs rational choice theory
FOR
Rational choice theory can undermine the importance of election campaigns cuz people base their votes on what’s best for them rather than the actual campaign itself.
Some may resort to ‘economic voting’, where people vote out of self interest for the party that will benefit them economically.
E.g. homeowners are more likely to vote for CP and those who rent are more likely to vote for Labour, with 40% of those w mortgages and private renting voted for Labour in 2024GE as they pro,used improving rental and mortgage rates.
Similarly, in 1997GE, following john major’s catastrophic ‘Black Wednesday’, where the pound is blinded to the German currency which caused the pound to lose value.
TIS as the perceived econic incompetence of the Tories lead rational voters to choose Labour as they opted for long-term econmic solutions-prioritising long-term economic outcomes over campaign promises.
Theme 3: campaign vs rational choice theory
HOWEVER
Most voters pay little attention to politics outside elections. Campaigns frame which issue matters which activates their deacons making during election time.
E.g. 2024GE campaign was largely focussed on the valence issue of the NHS.
TIS as these valence issues become the key fixtures of campaigns, whcih spur people onto voting on this issue on who they think will run the country effectively.
Overall, rational choice issue is more important than the campaign itself as humans are naturally geared towards making choices that benefit them the most despite successful campaigning
Overall conclusion
To conclude, GE aren’t the sole indicator of election results as they are heavily reliant on a party’s image, key rational issues and based on how well the party has been doing in office prior to the campaign.
