Evidence Bank

Question 1

Example of AMS allowing more parties

Answer 1

No majorities in Scotland until 2011 and rise of Scottish nationalism

Question 2

Example of FPTP giving mandate to get things done

Answer 2

Blair constitutional reform
Johnson to deliver Brexit

Question 3

Examples of FPTP diminishing smaller parties’ seat number

Answer 3

Lib Dems won 11.6% of vote but only got 11 (1.6%) of seats in 2019

UKIP received 3.9 million votes in 2015 but only got one seat, would have been over 80 under PR

Question 4

Example of FPTP giving winner’s bonus

Answer 4

In 2015 conservatives got 37% of vote but 51% of seats

In 2005 despite Labour only getting 3% more votes than Tories and losing 48 seats and only getting 35% of popular vote, got almost 55% of seats and 25% more than Tories

In 2019…

Question 5

Examples of value of FPTP constituency link (2)

Answer 5

Labour MP Stephen Timms, who represents East Ham in London, held the record for the greatest number of surgeries in 2011. He did so in spite of being stabbed by an Islamic extremist at a surgery the previous year, insisting that it was important for him to continue to be accessible. Saw 2,300 constituents

Zac Goldsmith resigned as an MP over party’s support for Heathrow expansion in 2016

Question 6

Examples of AMS being corrective to FPTP

Answer 6

• For example, in Scotland the Conservative Party won no seats in the 1997 Westminster election under FPTP, but the list enabled it to win a total of 18 seats in the first Scottish parliament elections in 1999.

Scottish parl 2021

Snp
47.7% of vote
49.6% of seats

Question 7

Why does AMS partially correct FPTP?

Answer 7

The top-up component introduces a proportional element, acting as a corrective to the FPTP part of the system. A calculation is made using the d’Hondt formula to determine how many members a party should be allocated from the lists.

Question 8

Examples of AMS still delivering disproportional results (2)

Answer 8

Conservatives got 8 more seats of Scot Parl than labour for only 0.3% more of vote in 2015

57 out of 59 regional seats with only 50% of vote for snp in 2015?

Question 9

Examples of incorrectly completely votes under PR system

Answer 9

146,000 ballots incorrectly completed in Scotland in 2007.

Question 10

Example of keeping extremists out

Answer 10

BNP got 563,743 votes but no seats in 2010.

Question 11

Examples of coalitions taking long to form gov (2)

Answer 11

The May 2010 general election was an exception, when negotiations between the prospective parties of government did not produce a result for 5 days. This would be the norm under a proportional system. The outcome of a general election would be determined by bargaining between the party leaders, which can take time.

After the 2010 general election in Belgium, which uses a proportional system, it took almost 18 months to form a government.

Question 12

Result of AV referendum

Answer 12

68% against

Question 13

Speed of FPTP

Answer 13

Early in morning after polling day

Question 14

What percentage of seats were safe in 2010?

Answer 14

In 2010, 59% estimated as safe seats by electoral reform society

Question 15

Examples of safe seats (2)

Answer 15

The safest seat in the 2017 general election was Liverpool Walton, where Labour received 86% of the vote, giving them a 77% majority over the second-placed Conservatives (at 9%).

Christchurch is a safe Conservative seat; in 2017 the party gathered 69.6% of the vote there, giving it a near-50% majority over Labour.[28]

Question 16

Examples of safe seats being lost

Answer 16

in 2015, the Labour Party lost many formerly safe seats in Scotland, including Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, which had previously been held by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and Paisley and Renfrewshire South, the seat of shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander. In both cases, swings of over 25% to the SNP were recorded.

In the 2019 general election, Labour lost many formerly safe seats that were part of its ‘Red Wall’ in northern England. These defeats represented about 20% of the party’s overall 2017 vote in such seats. Such as Leigh and Don Valley held since 1922.

Question 17

How many wasted votes in 2019 GE?

Answer 17

Over 22.6 million votes (70.8%) did not contribute to electing an MP. In seven constituencies, over 90 percent of the votes went to waste in this way.

Question 18

Example of seat being won without majority

Answer 18

The smallest of these being in South Down where the winning MP gained just 32 percent of the vote share – this means that over two-thirds of voters in South Down voted for another candidate.

Question 19

Seats won without majority in 2019 GE

Answer 19

Overall, 229 of the 650 MPs were elected on less than 50 percent of the constituency vote – in other words, 35 percent of all MPs lack majority support.

Question 20

How much tactical voting in 2019?

Answer 20

Electoral Reform Society:

Between August and November 2019 (the start of the official campaign) between 22 and 24 percent of voters said they would choose ‘the best-positioned party/candidate to keep out another party/candidate that I dislike’. Our final poll before the election found nearly a third of voters saying they would vote tactically in this way (30%).17

Question 21

Neglect of safe seats

Answer 21

Before the election, the ERS predicted the outcome in 316 seats, half of all seats in Great Britain. These predictions had a 100 percent success rate.27 The certainty of safe seats can breed complacency among parties and lead to voters being taken for granted, with safe seats ignored during election campaigns while seats that may change hands are lavished with attention.

BMG polling for the ERS revealed that those living in seats classed as marginal received far more election literature than those seats classed as safe for one party or another.28 Just one in four people (25%) in safe seats reported receiving four or more election leaflets or other pieces of communication through their door compared to almost half (46%) of those in potential swing seats. Nearly three times as many people in swing seats (14%) reported receiving 10 or more leaflets or other pieces of communication, compared to just five percent of those in safe seats.

Question 22

Example of proportionality under STV

Answer 22

Sinn Fein in 2022 NI Assembly Elections got 30% seats with 29 percent of vote while DUP got 28 percent of seats with 21% of vote

In 2017 DUP got 31% of seats with 28.1 % of vote and Sinn Fein got 27.9% and also 31%, just one more seat.

Question 23

Choice under STV

Answer 23

more choice is offered by STV, where a preferential voting system allows voters to differentiate not only between political parties but also between candidates from the same party.

Also fewer wasted votes

Question 24

Weak voter link under STV

Answer 24

Multi member constituencies

E.g. most have 5 members

Question 25

Why can being able to vote split vote among candidates of same party under STV be negative?

Answer 25

Voters are able to choose candidates from the same party meaning candidates from the same party have to compete against each other, which could cause conflict and splits in the party.

Question 26

Why can weak link under STV be good thing?

Answer 26

Have to campaign to win broad support across constituency not just on marginal issues.

Question 27

Example of voting for same party under STV

Answer 27

In 2022 elections in 4 out of five candidates elected for Belfast West from SF.

Question 28

Example of choice of candidates running under STV

Answer 28

In 2011 Northern Ireland assembly election - South Antrim: there were 10 candidates to choose from.

Question 29

STV too complicated example

Answer 29

When STV was introduced for local council elections in Scotland, there were many spoilt ballot papers.

Question 30

Power sharing under STV and 2017 vote shares

Answer 30

the two rival communities, the unionists and nationalists, to work together, ending 30 years of violent disturbance in Northern Ireland.

The use of STV ensures that governments are power-sharing bodies drawn from both sides of the divide. Another reason is that STV was already used in the Republic of Ireland.

In 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly election, DUP got 28.1% while SF got 27.9% of vote. DUP only had one more seat than SF.

Question 31

Power sharing breaking down under STV

Answer 31

With Brexit in January 2020, issues with the Irish border arose due to the Brexit withdrawal agreement.[2] In the Brexit negotiations potential issues were considered with the Irish backstop. 31
In December 2021, a judge ruled that DUP ministers boycotting the North/South Ministerial Council to protest the Northern Ireland Protocol were an “abject breach of their solemn pledge”. [4]
The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election resulted in Sinn Fein becoming the largest party, marking the first time an Irish nationalist/republican party won the most seats.[5]
This gave them the right to nominate Northern Ireland’s first-ever nationalist first minister of Northern Ireland.16] The Democratic Unionist Party refused to return to power-sharing over disagreements over the Northern Ireland Protocol and the Windsor Framework. 7] The absence of an executive left senior civil servants controlling the nine government departments.

Not the first time: The longest suspension was between 2002 and 2007, during which time Northern Ireland was run once more from London.

Relations between the two main parties broke down again in 2017, and the assembly and ruling executive were not restored until January 2020.

Question 32

Example of STV not being fully proportional

Answer 32

ADD

Question 33

SV broad support for winner example

Answer 33

In 2016, Sadiq Kahn won with 56.8 of the vote in the second round, largest personal mandate of any elected British politician in history

Question 34

Sv allowing independents to win example

Answer 34

In 2012 Police and Crime commissioner elections 12 out of the 40 who won were independents

Question 35

Why isn’t SV proportional?

Answer 35

One individual is being elected to a single office

Question 36

Example of SV not needing overall majority

Answer 36

ADD

Question 37

Why was SV chosen to elect mayors?

Answer 37

Both SV and AV were considered as possibilities when the Labour government was deciding which method to use for choosing the London Mayor - and thus the mayor for other cities. SV was chosen partly because it was simpler to use. It was also preferred because only the top two candidates. after first preferences had been counted, would make it through to the final round. This meant that candidates with little positive support would be less likely to win merely because they were a ‘lowest common denominator’ second or third choice. In this way the winner would have a clear mandate.

Question 38

Politics of compromise in Scotland examples

Answer 38

When it was in a minority, the SP government had to win the support of other parties in order to pass legislation. In February 2011, in order to win support for its budget, the administration had to make concessions to the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. In response to claims that its budget did not do enough to promote economic recovery, the SP agreed to measures to increase youth employment and training.

Question 39

Northern Ireland leadership situation for compromise

Answer 39

In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement requires that representatives of the main unionist and nationalist parties are included in the executive.
The choice of STV for Assembly elections guarantees that members of the two rival communities are elected, rather than Northern Ireland submitting to single-party domination as this could risk a return to sectarian violence.
The first minister and deputy first minister - nominated by the two largest parties - are equal in status and share governmental responsibilities. The system of government is designed to ensure joint participation by unionists and nationalists or republicans.

Question 40

Closed lists in AMS

Answer 40

ADD

Question 41

Politics of compromise in Wales

Answer 41

ADD

Question 42

Counter to undemocratic negotiations with parties negotiating to form coalitions under PR

Answer 42

Compromise means broader interests are reflected and pluralist democracy

Question 43

How has turnout decreased or increased in recent years in general elections?

Answer 43

2019: 67%
2001: 59%
1945-97 Average: 76%

Question 44

Example of influential e-petition

Answer 44

.

Question 45

Evidence for e-petitions not being influential

Answer 45

.

Question 46

Example of different party policy options

Answer 46

In 2019 The Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, The Independent Group for Change, and the Green Party of England and Wales were all opposed to Brexit, and proposed that a further referendum be held with the option, for which they would campaign, to remain in the EU.

Also recovering from 2008 economic crisis.

Question 47

Example of big majorities being able to bypass scrutiny

Answer 47

Plus whip and statutory instruments which allow gov to modify or resolve existing legislation without introducing a new bill.

Blair constitutional reforms. Blair didn’t lose a vote in commons until after 2005 election when his majority dropped by 100 and even then took combination of labour and opposition rebels, against extending detention of terror suspects to 90 days.

Question 48

Eg of Supreme Court judicial review and being overturned

Answer 48

In Nov 23 SC upheld Court of Appeal’s decision declaring deportations to Rwanda unlawful. However gov passed Safety of Rwanda Act in April 2024 overruling judgements and declaring Rwanda a safe country.

Question 49

Example of successful SC check on executive

Answer 49

2019 Johnson’s advice to Queen to prorogue parliament was unlawful.

Question 50

Example of public getting tired of pressure group

Answer 50

The success of different pressure groups can vary considerably as a consequence of the wider context. Much depends on the climate of public opinion and the willingness of the government to make concessions. Access to effective methods of communication is another factor that may promote success. An example is the dramatic sequence of events that followed a period of rising petrol prices in September 2000.
The UK economy almost ground to a halt when road hauliers and farmers spearheaded a movement to blockade oil refineries, in a bid to get the government to reduce the tax on fuel.
These activists had considerable leverage and made use of mobile phones to assemble their supporters rapidly, with little warning. They also enjoyed widespread public approval. They secured a limited success by catching the Blair government unprepared - they gained a freeze rather than a cut in the duty - but two later attempts to replicate this mass protest, when the cost of fuel began to rise again, failed to attract significant support.

Just Stop Oil: Although Yougov poll showed 82% of respondents considered climate change to be either very or fairly important, 68% were found to disapprove of the Just Stop Oil group.

Question 51

Examples of success in bringing in laws against terror

Answer 51

.

Question 52

Examples of failure in bringing in laws against terror

Answer 52

.

Question 53

Examples of success in bringing in laws limiting freedom of protest

Answer 53

.

Question 54

Examples of success in bringing in laws limiting freedom of speech

Answer 54

.

Question 55

Example of refusal to hold referendum

Answer 55

Blair and Brown denied the electorate a say on the Lisbon Treaty of 2007, which extended the process of European integration, on the grounds that previous governments had not held popular votes on treaties. This caused outrage among the opposition, who maintained that voters had been denied a chance to vote on an agreement that transferred significant authority to the EU.

Question 56

Example of low referendum turnout

Answer 56

Low turnout has been the norm, with outstanding exceptions such as the Scottish independence referendum in 2014. This limits the legitimacy of the decision. Turnout in the 1997 Welsh devolution vote, for example, was barely above 50 per cent, which cast a shadow over the new Assembly for some time.

ADD another

Question 57

Example of election result being affected by other circumstances

Answer 57

The outcomes of referendums can be influenced by factors that have nothing to do with the subject being put before the electorate. They can be a way of registering a protest against the government of the day.
For example, the defeat of the Alternative Vote proposal in the 2011 referendum was affected by the unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats.

Question 58

Example of referendum being called for their own political purposes

Answer 58

In addition, governments sometimes hold referendums for their own political purposes, for example, to defuse opposition and las with the 2011 referendum) to overcome their own differences. There is an argument for greater regulation of the circumstances in which a referendum can be triggered.

Question 59

Examples of referendum issues not being explained well

Answer 59

•If the arguments are not explained clearly to the public, popular participation may be lOW.
This was a factor in the low turnout in the 2011 referendum on electoral reform. After the 2016 EU vote, the Electoral Commission reported that the arguments used by the leaders of both campaigns included a degree of distortion, and that there should be greater regulation of referendum campaigns to ensure that people receive a fair presentation of the arguments.