Exam 1 Flashcards
(181 cards)
Epidemiology
the diagnostic discipline of public health
study of the distribution and the determinants (risk factors) of disease and mortality in the population
Quantifying a Disease
1) Define the disease
2) Measure disease frequency:
a) count the number of individuals affected (numerator)
b) determine the size of the population from which the cases arose (denominator)
c) account for the passage of time
Basic types of incidence rates
1) Cumulative Incidence
2) Incidence rate (aka incidence density: person-time incidence rate)
Incidence
the number of new cases per unit population, during a stated period of time
the rate of development of a disease in a population over a specified period of time
contains the following elements:
a) numerator - number of new cases
b) denominator - population at risk
c) rate base or multiplier
d) time - period during which cases accrued
Population at risk (PAR)
the denominator for incidence rates
are AT RISK of contracting the disease
are DISEASE-FREE at the start of the specified time period
exclude individuals NOT AT RISK in the population from the denominator - important with lifelong diseases and infectious diseases that confer immunity
among large populations (ex. US incidence rates), denominator is based on average population
Rate Base
also known as multiplier
rate base - per 100, 1000, or 100000 (to power of 10)
purpose: the reported rate is expressed as a number equal to or greater than 1
Calculate cumulative incidence of colon cancer among this study population:
60 cases of colon cancer were reported in 5 year study of 311 study subjects, colon cancer-free at start of study
Cumulative incidence rate = number of new cases / population at risk
60/311 = 0.1929
19.3 cases per 100 over 5 years
Calculate cumulative incidence rate for ovarian cancer:
# of new cases = 1085 population at risk = 37105 time period = 8 years
incidence rate = 1085 / 37105 = 0.02924
- 02924 / 8 = 0.003655
- 003655 x 100,000 = 365.5 cases per 100,000 women per year
Cumulative incidence rate
represents a population’s average risk of developing that disease during the time/period of observation
Incidence Rate
also known as incidence density
what to do when members of a population or study group are under observation for different lengths of time
Incidence density equation
Incidence density = # of new cases during the time period / total person-time of observation
If measured in years:
Incidence density = # of new cases during the time period / total person-years of observation
What is the incidence rate of colon cancer among this study population per 100 person-years?
60 cases of colon cancer were reported in 5 year study of 311 study subjects. 10 subjects developed colon cancer and 40 dropped out of study after one year, 35 new cases were reported at end of year two; no cases, but 4 subjects dropped out at end of year three, 10 new cases and 12 subjects dropped out at end of year four, and 5 new cases were reported at end of year 5.
Incidence rate of colon cancer is: 60 cases per 1220 person years
Incidence per 100 person-years: (60/1220) x 100 = 4.9 cases per 100 person years
Advantages of incidence rate over cumulative incidence
advantages in follow up studies:
1) allow for subject losses due to withdrawals, deaths or other reasons
2) accommodates subjects entering a study at different times
Applications of incidence data
1) helps in research on the etiology/causality of disease
2) estimates the risk of developing a disease
Attack Rate (AR)
a cumulative incidence rate used when the nature of the disease or condition is such that a population is observed for a short period of time
alternative form of incidence rate
used for diseases observed in a population for a short time period
with acute infectious disease outbreaks, the population-at-risk increases greatly over a short period of time
ex) salmonella gastroenteritis outbreak
Prevalence
the number of cases (new and existing) of a disease or health condition in a population at or during some designated time
provides an indication of the extent of a health problem BUT is NOT a measure of risk
Point prevalence equation
Point prevalence = number of cases / total number in the group at point in time
Period prevalence
Period prevalence = number of cases of disease during a time period
average population at mid-point
cases are counted even if they die, migrate, or recur
Uses of prevalence
1) describing the burden of a health problem in a population
2) determining allocation of health resources such as facilities and personnel
Interrelationship between Prevalence and Incidence
the prevalence (P) of a disease is proportional to the incidence rate (I) times the duration (D) of a disease
Incidence and Prevalence
if duration of disease is short and incidence is high, prevalence becomes similar to incidence
short duration: cases recover rapidly or are fatal (ex. common cold, flu, ebola)
An epidemiologist conducts a survey of Sargentitis Disease in a population.
The prevalence of Sargentitis
among women is 40 per 1,000 and
among men is 20 per 1,000.
Assuming the data is age-adjusted,
is it correct to assume that women have twice the risk of Sargentitis compared with men?
No, there could be a lot more women in the total population compared to men
Changing Patterns of Mortality
until the 20th century the major causes of death in all parts of the world combined were infectious diseases
in the 20th century, control of infectious diseases is paralleled by the emergence of chronic diseases as major causes of mortality
Characteristics of Infectious Diseases
relatively short latency period from exposure to disease