Exam Flashcards
(210 cards)
1
Q
Bureaucracy
A
- Administrative machinery of the state
- Help formulate and implement FP
2
Q
Bureaucracy Core Characteristics
A
- Hierarchy, continuity, impersonality, and expertise
3
Q
Bureaucratic Hierarchy
A
- Officials have to answer to superiors in defined sphere of confidence
4
Q
Bureaucratic Continuity
A
- Permanent staff, full-time work with prospects for advancements
5
Q
Bureaucratic Impersonality
A
- Work according to rules that eliminate arbitrary and politicized influence
6
Q
Bureaucratic Expertise
A
- Officials with specialized training selected on merit
- Control access to knowledge
7
Q
Dilemma Related to Autonomy and Accountability
A
- Bureaucratic freedom to make decisions vs. political control
8
Q
Bureaucracies Influence on FP
A
- Institutional interests/path dependence
- Standard operation procedures
- Competing bureaucratic interests
- Barnett and Finnemore
9
Q
Cuban Missile Crisis
A
- Graham Allison
- Rational Actor Model
- Organizational Process Model
- Bureaucratic Politics Model
10
Q
Rational Actor and Cuba
A
- Rely on assumptions about states as unitary and rational actors
- Cannot explain why USSR deployed missiles or the US response
11
Q
Path Dependence and Institutional Interests of Bureaucracies
A
- When change occurs, it is path-dependent
- Existing rules foreclose some options bias outcomes
12
Q
Standard Operating Procedure (SOP)
A
- Rule following
- Established habits, routines, and procedures shape decision-making
- Levy
13
Q
WW1 and Path Dependence
A
- Levy
- Big countries had mobilization plans that made it hard to step back
- Whoever struck first had the advantage
14
Q
Competing Interests and Turf Wars in Bureaucracy
A
- Actors’ policy positions are determined by their positions within government
15
Q
Obama’s Troops Surge in Afghanistan
A
- Different bureaucratic roles predicted who wanted what
16
Q
Bureaucratic Influence on Policy Implementation
A
- Bureaucracies guard data and info
- Sources of specialized knowledge
17
Q
Information Challenges
A
- Coordination failures across departments
- Overlapping jurisdictions
- Disagreements about authority in policy
18
Q
Canada’s Whole-of-Government Approach
A
- 3-Ds, defence, diplomacy, and development in Afghanistan
19
Q
International Bureaucracies
A
- Large bureaucracies with similar characteristics
- IBs are autonomous and can shape state FP
20
Q
Individuals and FP
A
- Challenge assumptions about states as unitary, rational actors
21
Q
Rosenau’s Five Factors
A
- International system
- Societal envrionment
- Government setting
- Bureaucratic roles of policymakers
- Individual characteristics of FP elites
22
Q
Agency
A
- Hayes, how much impact an individual can have
23
Q
Structure
A
- Hayes, material conditions that define range of options available
24
Q
First Image
A
- Waltz, man
- Theories that may emphasize the role of individuals
25
Second Image
- Waltz, state
- Theories that emphasize the state to explain FP
26
Third Image
- Waltz, war
- Focusing on the international system as a whole
- Where states fit in explains their behaviour
27
Napoleonic Wars First Image
- Napoleon himself and his beliefs
28
Napoleonic Wars Second Image
- Domestic characteristics
- French Revolution was threatening to other states governed by monarchies
29
Napoleonic Wars Third Image
- Shifting alliances and the big picture
30
Individual Factors
- Personality and leadership style
- Psychological factors
- Ascriptive characteristics
- Socialization and past experience
31
Promotional Leadership
- Conducive to groupthink
- If a leader has a preferred course of action, groupthink is more likely
32
Personality and Leadership Style
- Openness to advice vs. promotional leadership
- Degree of risk aversion
- Willingness to compromise
33
Active/Passive Leadership
- Hands-on vs. laissez-faire
34
Positive/Negative Leadership
- Empowering vs. autocratic
35
Trump and Tariffs
- Evidence does not support the reasons given
- Even with genuine concerns that escalation was very fast
- Function of Trump's personality
36
Psychological Factors
- Jervis, leads to misperception among decision-makers
37
Misperceptions
- Confirmation bias
- Availability heuristics
- Cognitive dissonance
- Perception of intent
38
Availability Heuristics
- People are more likely to learn from things that are memorable
- E.g. dramatic events
39
Perception of Centralization/Intent
- Assume things others have done are deliberate
- Think own actions are less circumstantial
40
Pandemic Preparedness
- AH and Covid, personal experiences will be more easily recalled
- Influence future responses
41
Ascriptive Characteristics
- Gender, age, religion, nationality, etc.
42
Women as Peacemakers
- COO of Meta says that women don't go to war
- Not so much about gender, essentialist
- Sticky argument that hasn't gone away
43
Peacemakers or Iron Ladies
- Schramm and Stark, gender impacts
- Female leaders perform stereotypical masculine behaviour to prove they have leadership characteristics
44
Socialization and Past Experience
- Education and professional background
- Ideology and values
- Societal expectations
- National role conceptions
45
US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson
- CEO of Exxon Mobil, shaped SoS, e.g. Paris withdrawal
- He was used to systematic hierarchy and Trump was disorganized
46
Hallmarks of FPA
- Actor-specific information and theory
- Multicausal and multi-level explanations
- Variety of methods
- Decision-making is just as important as FP outputs
47
Levels of Analysis in FPA
- International system
- State level
- Individuals
48
Case Study
- Bennett and George, aspect of a historical episode
- Might examine action, reaction, or inaction
- Single event or pattern of behaviour
49
Case
- Class of events
- Single event can be a case of many things
50
The War in Ukraine Cases
- Single event, case of many things
51
Advantages of Case Studies
- Deep, contextual understanding of outcomes
- Exploring causal mechanisms
- Assessing complex causal relationships
- New hypotheses
52
Descriptive Case Studies
- Detailed account of an FP event or outcome
53
Explanatory Case Studies
- Seek to explain why a particular decision was made
54
Comparative Case Studies
- Compare two or more cases to identify patterns
55
Theory-Testing Case Study
- Use a case to test an existing theory
56
Theory-Building Case Study
- Draw on specific FP outcomes/events to develop new theories
57
Case Studies: Step by Step
- Select the case and define a research question
- Gather and analyze data
- Apply theories and draw conclusions
58
Defining the Research Question
- Narrow scope with defined key terms
59
Gathering Data
- Primary sources include government documents etc.
- Secondary sources are scholarly research etc.
- Avoid over-reliance on one type
60
Analyzing Decision Making
- Review data from multiple sources
- Causal mechanisms and temporal sequencing
61
Process Tracing
- Bennett and George, method attempts to identify causality between the independent variable and the outcome
62
Process Tracing Collier
- Tool of causal inference focuses on unfolding events or situations over time
63
Retaliatory Tariffs
- Process tracing helps us understand that it was a reaction to the US
64
Applying Theoretical Frameworks
- Importance of identifying rival theories to account for a particular outcome
- Selective about number of theories
65
Theory
- A way of considering knowledge
66
Theories and Observable Implications
- Things we expect to see if a theory is correct
- Falsifiable, clear evidence suggests theory is incorrect
67
Individuals and Canadian FP
- Variation from PMs from the same part
- Same policies points to the party
68
Multi-Causal Explanations in FPA
- Identifying which factors are likely to be more important
- Provides theoretical justification
69
Multi-Level Explanations in FPA
- Consider international, state, and individual levels
- One level can influence others
70
Drawing Conclusions in FPA
- Address questions about generalizability
- Importance of specifying scope conditions
- Mid-range theory beyond one case but not universal
71
Pacifism and Japanese FP
- Article 9 of their Constitution renounces war as a sovereign right
- Gave up militarization entirelyY
72
Yoshida Doctrine
- 1950s, close ties with US
- Strong focus on economic growth
- Japan self-defense forces
73
1951 Mutual Security Treaty
- Reliance on US security was guaranteed
74
Japan Lessons Learned from Military Defeat
- Many dead and destroyed cities
- First time being defeated by a foreign power
- US-led occupation and then constitutional monarchy
75
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
- 1945, 2 atomic bombs dropped
- Killed 150,000-200,000 people
- Only use of nukes in armed conflict
76
Why did the US Atomic Bomb Japan
- Victory in Europe and needed to end the war quickly
- Called for Japanese surrender and they didn't
- Discussion about racism
77
Limitations of Institutional Explanations
- Berger says it doesn't add up
78
US and the Japanese Constitution
- Douglas McArthur held the pen
- Not lessons Japan took away if it was the US
79
Three Factors Against Japanese Pacifism
- Remnants of ethnocentric nationalism
- Militarization did not disappear overnight
- Not as much war guilt
80
Strong Group-Loyalty and Decision-Making Decentralization in Japan
- Mutual accommodation among leading institutions
- Once groups arrive at an idea, it's hard to deviate, inertia
81
Japanese Rules are Open to Interpretation
- Legal and constitutional changes are possible
- 1992 International Peace Cooperation Act
82
Yasukuni Shrine Controversy
- Tokyo shrine with 14 leaders convicted of Class A war crimes
- China and Korea see visits to it by Japanese leaders as provocative
- Enough visits to cast out explanations of generalized pacifism
83
Constructivist Explanation
- Berger, national identity
- National culture of anti-militarism
- Norms against militarism shape FP
- Weak regional secuirty institutions
84
Japanese National Identity
- Japan as a democracy and 'peace nation'
85
Japanese Culture of Anti-Militarism
- Visible in public opnion and opposition to changes in Japanese defence policy
- Not just in law but also in society
86
Pacifist Policy Making
- Berger, anti-militarism leads to fully exclude them from speaking to political leaders
87
Gulf War
- Culture of militarism creates constraints
- Japan was under pressure by US to contribute
- Said sovereignty was important but the crisis did not trump pacifism
88
Japan Reliance on US
- US secuirty guarantees and the 'nuclear umbrella'
- Japan SDF complements US capabilities, defensive
- Will change depending on contunuing secuirty cooperation
89
Japan and UN Peacekeeping
- 1992, International Peace Cooperation Act
- End of Cold War increased US peacekeeping
- Number of missions and amount troops deployed increased
90
Realist Explanations of Japanese FP
- Lind, scholars underestimate Japan military capabilities
- GDP is a misleading stat, better to look at total defense spending
- Japan's total defense spending is large
91
Offensive Realism
- Great powers will seek regional hegemony
92
Defensive Realism
- States must be vigilant
- Expansionism is counter productive
- Easier than offense
93
Realist FP Strategies
- Conquest, off
- Bandwagoning, off
- Balancing, def
- Buck-passing, def
94
Conquest
- Offensive strategy aimed at expansion and regional hegemony
95
Bandwagoning
- Offensive strategy aimed at alignment with a strong state to benefit from them
96
Balancing
- Defensive strategy based on building military power, finding allies, and confronting aggressive states
97
Buck-Passing
- Defensive strategy in which threats are recognzied
- State does as little as possible to balance, relying on other instead
98
US-Japan Secuirty Cooperation
- Buck-passing to te US
- Are under US 'nuclear umbrella' but could get weapons if they needed too
99
Japan-US Post-Cold War
- 80s and 90s, concerns about growing Japanese influence
- Worried Japan would be next big rival
100
Are Realists Wrong?
- Bergher, Japan's reason not to rearm is related to anti-militarism
- With Article 9 it'll be fine
101
Lind and Bergher
- Lind says Bergher is wrong in 2004
- Scholars underestimate Japan's military capabilities
102
Passing the Buck on Secuirty and Defense
- Threats are recognized but the state does little to balance, and rely on others instead
- Japan's relationship with the US
103
Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
- 55,000 US troops and 15 bases in Japan
- Article 5, US must defend Japan from third-party attack
104
Contemporary Burden Sharing
- IPCA allowed overseas UN peace operation deployments
- Japan was limited
105
National Security Strategy, 2013
- Proactive contribution to peace
- Shift in idea it is not enough to passively defend self
- Proactively contribute to UN Peackeeping
106
Reinterpret Article 9, 2015
- Legislation passed to allow for collective self-defence operations
- Similar to NATO arrangement
107
Defence Buildup Program, 2022
- Moved target defence spending from 1%-2%
- Increase in defence spending every year for 13 years
108
Arms Exports, 2024
- Japan decided to relax the rules on arms exports
- Including fighter jets
109
Evolving Regional Security Threats in Japan
- Geographic proximity to three autocratic, nuclear-armed states
- Territory disputes with China
- North Korean nuclear missile tests
110
Democratic Insitutions and Decision-Making in Japan
- Voters are concerned about threats, Article 9 remains
- Public opinion still constrains turn
- Doubling defense spending has budgetary implications
111
Cultural Constraints on Decision-Making in Japan
- Voters may feel threats are overblown
- Suspicion of revisionist 'ideologies'
- Questions about threat analysis
- Persistent cultural antimiltarism
112
Suspicion of Revisionist 'Ideologies' in Japan
- Ultra-conservatives with other policy objectives
- People see defence changes as intertwined with societal changes to conservativism
113
Persistent Cultural Antimilitarism in Japan
- Young people do not see the military as an appealing career path
- Cultural factors stop move to a more self-sufficient defence policy
114
Revisionist Ideology and Domestic Politics
- Suzuki and Wallace, the Japanese public more skeptical than ever
- Conservatives who want Japan to be independent have a wider agenda
115
Future of Japan
- Bergher, Japan's stance on defence is fine if US-Japan relations are sound
- Relations are under friction
116
International Level Japan
- Reliability of US security guarantees
- Regional security dynamics
- Will US abide by 1960 guarantees or does Japan need to calibrate
117
National Level Japan
- Shifting culture of anti-militarism
- Fiscal and demographic constraints
118
Individual Level Japan
- Cross-cutting beliefs and priorities of key Japanese policymakers
- E.g. revisionist vs. pacifist vs. 'proactive pacifist'
119
Puzzle of the Iraq War
1. What explains the US decision to invade by early 2003?
2. What explains the approach to the subsequent occupation?
120
Gulf War
- Iraq invades Kuwait, its neighbour
- Pushback from international community
121
Operation Desert Storm
- Launched by the UN and defeated Iraq
- Concern was Iraqi WMD
122
Concern with Iraq
- Thought Iraq was acquiring WMD
123
UN SC WMD
- Process to oversee destruction of Iraq's WMD program
- 1991-1998 destroyed many successfully
- Iraqi compliance was on and off
124
1999 WMD UN
- Replaced the existing team and creates the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission
125
Iraq 2002-2003
- Escalating tensions and non-compliance allegations from the US
126
Hans Blix
- Executive Chairman of the WMD project reported Iraqi cooperation
127
Divisions in UNSC
- Confrontation between traditional allies
128
Confrontation Between Traditional Allies
- US and UK vs. France, Germany, and others
- US and UK wanted authorization for war, allies said no
129
March 2003 Diplomacy
- US declares it has failed in Iraq
- 'Coalition of the Willing'
130
Coalition of the Willing
- Adress the threat from Iraq
- States thought it was in their interests to stay on the right side of the US
131
Colin Powell and the UN
- Went with a powerpoint to try to convince the UNSC
132
Global Protests and Public Opinion About Iraq
- February 15, 2003, global day of protests
- Did not constrain decision makers because US polls did not reflect the unhappiness
133
Operation Iraqi Freedom
- March 20, 2003, US and allies launched military operation
- Shock and awe bombing campaign, then ground invasion
- May 2003, Bush declared mission accomplished
134
How was Iraq Invasion Justified?
- Grave threat of WMDs to the US and world
- Freeing oppressed people
- March 19, 2003 speech
135
After the Invasion in Iraq
- No WMDs were found and there was a violent insurgency
- A lot of death and human rights violations and alleged war crimes
136
Realism and Iraq
- Disavowed the war, vocally opposed
- Did not serve US interests
- Blamed it on liberalism gone too far, regime change for democracy
137
Liberalism and Iraq
- Blamed it on realism, push to maintain US primacy
138
US Hegemony and the Invasion of Iraq
- Refusal to go through the UNSC is inconsitent with liberalism
- US pursuit of hegemonic primacy and security threat
- Disdain for multilateral institutions
139
Role of Domestic Factors in Iraq
- Prevalence of neo-conservative ideology in decision-makers
- Post-9/11 vulnerability
- 1% doctrine
- Overestimating probability of success
140
1% Doctrine
- Even if there is only a 1% chance of grave threat materializing, must be treated as a 'certainty'
- Bush
141
Neoconservatism
- Applies to FP and domestically
- Combines realism and liberalism, 1970s origins
- Promotion in the 1980s and 1990s
142
Neoconservatism Domestically
- Neos were concerned about US being a welfare state and having too many single mothers
143
Neoconservatism Origins
- Liberals shifted due to US failure in Vietnam
- Didn't succeed but was a noble war so stop beating selves up
144
Neoconservatism 1980s and 1990s
- Subscribers became influential under Clinton
- Senior during Bush
145
Core Tenets of Neoconservatism
- Moral clarity about US role in world
- US should maitain military preeminence
- US should leverage military pwower in FP
- Skepticism about IL and MI
146
Neoconservative Moral Clarity
- America is good and needs a bad guy
- USSR during Cold War, Iraq after 9/11
147
Neoconservative US Preeminence
- Good for US and the world for them to remain on top
148
Neoconservative US Military Power
- Should be willing to use force in US FP
149
Neoconservative Skepticism
- International law and multilateral institutions were designed by weak states to limit US power
- Democracy and free markets are good
150
Post 9/11 Sense of US Vulnerability
- Without 9/11 there wouldn't have been Iraq
- Saddam Hussein tenuous links to Al-Qaeda
- US Congress support
- Opinion polls
151
US Congress Support for Iraq
- No one wanted to be seen as 'soft' on national security
- No one wants to be the person who voted against it just in case
152
Overestimating Odds of Success
- Assumptions that Iraqis would greet US as 'liberators'
- Optimistic planning for troops needed
- Limited and confused planning for post-war Iraq
153
Iraqis and US 'Liberators'
- US disbanded Iraqi secuirty forces which left a lot of people unemplyed
- People were unhappy with the US
154
US Troop Numbers in Iraq
- General said they'd need 500,000, went in with 160,000
- Didn't have the troops to maintain security
155
Bush Doctrine
- Unilateralism
- Pre-emptive use of force
- Regime change
156
Bush Unilateralsim
- Willingness to act without UN approval
157
Bush Pre-emptive Use of Force
- US right to secure itself before an attack occurs
158
Bush Regime Change
- Spreading freedom and democracy by removing autocrats
159
March-April 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Coalition troops overwhelm Iraqi security forces
- Hussein goes into hiding
160
May 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Bush declares end of major combat with his speech
161
23 May 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Iraqi army and intelligence services were disbanded
162
August 2003 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Suicide bombing at UN headquarter in Iraq kills people
163
January 2004 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Search for WMDs ends and CIA acknowledges there was no stockpile
164
April 2004 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Abu Ghraib prison scandal
165
September 2004 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Battle for Fallujah, allied military operation against insurgents
166
January 2005 Post-Iraq Invasion
- Iraqi parliamentary elections are held
- Sunni minority boycott because Hussein was Sunni
- Shia alliance as largest block
167
What Happened?
- WMDs weren't there
- US was not welcome
- Could not maintain order
- Democracy is slow
- Spillover effects
168
Spillover Effects in Iraq
- Members of Al Qaeda were using Iraq as a base after the war
- Empowered Iran
169
Declining Public Support for US Invasion of Iraq
- 2003, 71% of people are on board
- 2007, 40%
- Opinion changes because of the result
170
Bureacratic Politics and the Iraq War
- Bush's advisors were competing
- DOD v. DoS, created factions
171
Group Dynamics and FP
- Many decisions are made by small groups
- Key factors; internal group cohesion, leadership structure, and external pressures
172
Groupthink and Anticipatory Compliance
- Janis, Badie
- In hierarchy, group members are motivated to support leaders without being told to
173
Self-Censorship and Condoleza Rice
- Massoud, she was supposed to manage information to keep Bush informed
- Shared only what she thought he would want to hear
174
Leadership Style Key Traits
- Controlling events
- Conceptual complexity
- Distrust
- Ingroup bias
- Need for power
- Self-confidence
- Task emphasis
175
Belief in Ability to Control Events
- Acitivst policy agendas, less willing to compromise
- US tried to control what the Iraqis thought
176
Conceptual Complexity
- See more nuances and shades of grey
- Seek out alternative opinions
177
Distrust
- Conviction that statements and actions of others are insincere
- Distrust of Hussein made US not trust Blix
178
Ingroup Bias
- Perception that one's own group is best
- Commitment to its status
179
Need for Power
- Desire to influence, control, or dominate others
- Suppression of dissent
- Certain leaders feel confident in choices so are less sensistive to information from the environment
180
Task Emphasis
- Focus on task completion over feelings and needs of others
181
Variation Within the Bush Administration
- Shannon and Keller
- Variation in leadership styles explains willingness to violate norms
182
Leadership Style and Norm Violation
- Shannon and Keller
- Bush members that ranked higher were more likely to assume threats
183
Impact of Leadership Styles
- Mitchell and Massoud, Bush leadership style
184
Bush Leadership Style
- Hierarchical, insular, gut instinct, action-oriented
185
Bush Hierarchical Leadership
- Came from the corporate world
186
Bush Insular Leadership
- Preferred advice from close and loyal advisors
187
Bush Gut Instinct
- Rapid and ad hoc decision-making
188
Bush Action-Oriented
- Reluctant to go back on choices he had made
189
Future of FPA
- Global rise of populism
- Third wave of 'autocratization'
- New media and information enviornment
190
Populism
- Politics should be an expression of the general will of the poeple
- Paired with other ideologies
191
Populism and FP
- Wajner et al, form on the rise is right wing and authoritarian
192
Authoritarian Populsim
- Combines anti-elite sentiment and people-centrism with nationalism, majoritarianism, and decisionsism
- Implications for politics, policies, and polities
193
Majoritarianism
- Majority should rule and protections for minorities get in the way
194
Decisionism
- Dispensing with regular procedures and processes to make FP decisions
195
Authoritarian Populism Politics
- How FP actually ets made
- Centralization and personalization
196
Authoritarian Populism Policies
- Tends to favour policies aimed at reasserting national sovereignty
197
Authoritarian Populism Polities
- Skepticism about existing world order
198
Centralization and Personalization
- Wajner et al, skepticism of FP elites
- Cult of leadership
- Dispense with normal procedures and deliberations
199
Cult of Leadership
- Populism marginalizes experts
- Person at the top with their inner circle
200
Dispense with Normal Procedures
- Leader-centric meetings
- Traditionally FP is junior policy officer who’s been working on a project and then works its way up the ladder
- Leader becomes the centre
201
Emphasis of Sovereignty
- Freedom of action, no constraints
- Less willing to negotiate or compromise
202
Pragmatic Policy with Rhetorical Confrontation
- Might be time where the rhetoric is confrontational
- Quietly the occasional compromise
203
Reject Historical Responsibilities
- Populsim, do not accept they are bound by prior agreements
204
Conesting Liberal International Order
- Opposition to multilateralism and liberal institutions
- Global governance as target of politicization and national sovereingty
- Pushback against IBs
- Alternative institutions and orders
205
Varities of Democracies Project
- Number of people living in democracies has declined since 2004
- Wave of autocratization
206
Public Opinion, Media, and FP
- Baum and Potter
- Assumptions about info assymmetries between public and FP elites
- Media plays key role in attracting public attention
207
CNN Effect
- If you had dramatic widely available video coverage of an event the average voter will start to care
- Somalia, the US intervened and people paid attention because it got a lot of coverage on CNN
208
Living Room War
- Vietnam wasn't on radards until the draft
209
What Has Changed?
- Baum and Potter, information and media environment has changed
- Media fragmentation
210
