Exam 4 Flashcards
(22 cards)
Percentage
Probability
Field of totality
The remaining probability
Conjunctive probability
Is given by multiplying the probability of the first instance happening by the probability of the second instance occurring
Disjunctive probability
Deductivism
Is a method of deriving scientific laws through deductive methods from metaphysical truths about the nature of the world
- priori principles
Ex. Aristotle (384–322 BCE) deduced the shape and arrangement of the solar system from properties of the four primordial elements (fire, earth, air and water).
The geometric method
Inductivism
Method of generating scientific laws by inductive reasoning, from a large and representative sample of observations or data (counterexample can demonstrate the law false thus is replicated by experiment)
- posteriori premises
Ex.
Gregor Mendel (1822–1884) derived the ratio of dominant to recessive genes, by hybridizing pea plants and charting their traits over time
Ernst Weber (1795–1878) derived the threshold for ‘just-noticeable differences,’ with his experiments with human sensation and perception. From this, the Weber–Fechner law was derived.
Scientific laws
Observation report
Hypothesis
The problem of complete verification
In order to completely verify the claim that “all humans are mortal” we would need to surveying each and every human being on the planet. This would lead us toward a potentially endless process - as a consequence we usually reject the notion of verification for inductive arguments
Principle of confirmation
(Aka Nicods criterion) a generalization is confirmed by any of its instances
Correspondence principle
A prediction is true just in case it corresponds with some observable evidence
Demarcation criteria
Separate hypothesis which are testable (and therefore scientific) from those which are not
Verifiability/ falsifiability
Verifiability: relies on the possibility of confirmation as a criterion. Any non-analytic statement is verifiable just in case it is confirmable by some observable evidence
Falsifiability: relied on the possibility of disconfirmation as criterion. Any non-analytic statement is falsifiable just in case it is capable of being rejected based on some observable evidence
The logic of confirmation
Hypothesis can never be proven
Deductive logical fallacy known as affirming the consequent
The logic of refutation
Confirmational holism
Rejects that we can ever isolate specific statements for testing. Rather we come to the world with a theory - a system of proposition- from which we test collectively
Quine-duhem thesis
A scientific theory is under-determined relative to evidence
Fruitfulness
Scientific models
