Examples Flashcards
(21 cards)
Examples of Transition risks
Technology lags in developing countries
Changes to capacity and reliability
Skills availabilities
Decrease in markets value or share
Reputation risks
Legal risk
policy risk
3 limitations of ISO 31000
- not designed for complex systems
- focuses on moderate complexity
- Quest for comprehensiveness is unattainable
6 techniques for identifying risks
- Data based - historical analysis and lit review
- Expert based - brainstorming and interviews
- Model based - physical testing (in lab) and numerical modelling
- Divide system into smaller parts
- Encourage imaginative thinking
- Checklist, classification and taxonomies
6 techniques for analysing risk
- Event Tree Analysis: graphical flow of events and associated probabilities
- Fault tree analysis: Starts with fault and looks at what could lead to it
- Bow Tie Analysis:
Hazards to event (FTA) then event to consequences (ETA) - Influence diagrams and bayesian networks
- markov models
- monte carlo simulations / general simulations
5 Techniques for evaluating risk significance and acceptability
- ALARP
- Risk Indices (Overall scores, i.e., bushfire scores)
- Risk bearing capacity
- Cost/benefit analysis
- Globally at least equivalent (increase and decrease in risks from an action are even)
4 Techniques for selecting between options
- Cost benefit
- Decision Tree
- Multi-criteria analysis
- Game Theory
4 techniques to report risks
- Risk register
- Consequence/likelihood matrix
- S-curves
- Bow-tie diagrams
Give examples of paleo climate evidence
Tree rings
ice cores
ocean sediment
List examples of contextual factors for risk (5 options)
- imposed or voluntary risk?
- natural or man-made?
- by whom is the risk run?
- balance & distribution of benefits and risks
- Availability of alternatives
List examples of methods that can be used for risk assessments of highly complex issues
- climate model ensembles
What should be considered when using classification?
Benefits: reduces complexity, can increase understanding, make communication easier, help identify similarities and differences
Limits: May be convenient but not always true, categories are static, can be too big or small to be helpful
Discuss the limitation of climate models (3)
- very complex with assumptions and hypotheses
- temperature mechanism well understood, water less so
- resolution and representation in GCM does not align with systems to which it is applied
Difference between weather and climate models in term of four each categories
Time: Weather is daily, climate is long term
Simulation length: Weather is short, climate is long
Source of uncertainty: Initial conditions for weather, boundary conditions for climate
Resolution: High for weather, low for climate
Difference between integrated assessment models and GCMs
IAMs: combine the main aspects of the economy and society with the biosphere and atmosphere.
GCMs: focus on biosphere and atmosphere
Given examples of downscaling methods
- Change factor method
- statistical downscaling
- dynamical downscaling
Why do we downscale?
- transform data to smaller spatial scale
- captures local influences
- fits stakeholder smaller spatial focus
Considerations for selecting a baseline
ANS
What is the goal of model building?
ANS
List properties of a resilient system
- latitude
- resistance
- precariousness
- panarchy
Where can legally binding rules for risk assessments be found?
ISO 31010
Limitations of the frequentist approach
- cannot always complete repeat experiments
- lots of subject parts to a problem framing
- only applies to probability of random process
