final Flashcards
(77 cards)
planning fallacy
Definition: The tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions while overestimating the benefits, often due to unrealistic optimism or neglect of past experiences.
Example: A student plans to finish a project in two days but ends up taking a week due to unforeseen challenges. This is valid because the student ignored potential obstacles and assumed best-case outcomes.
optimism bias
Definition: A cognitive bias where people believe they are less likely to experience negative events and more likely to succeed compared to others.
Example: Believing you’ll avoid traffic accidents even when driving recklessly. This is valid because it illustrates the unrealistic belief in one’s invulnerability.
The Big Dig, Sydney Opera House
Definition: Iconic examples of the planning fallacy where major projects significantly exceeded time and budget projections due to unrealistic expectations.
Example: The Big Dig in Boston was estimated at $2.8 billion but cost $14.6 billion. This is valid because it demonstrates underestimated costs typical of the planning fallacy.
Hofstadter’s Law
Definition: “It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law,” highlighting the persistent underestimation of task duration.
Example: Writing a paper takes twice as long as planned, even after factoring in delays. This is valid because the recursive nature of underestimation is evident.
conjunction fallacy
Definition: The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one, violating probability laws.
Example: Believing “Linda is a feminist bank teller” is more likely than “Linda is a bank teller.” This is valid because the added detail feels intuitive but decreases probability.
Bayesian Chain
Definition: A reasoning framework using prior probabilities to update beliefs with new evidence, essential for avoiding conjunction errors.
Example: If 90% of people with symptoms have a flu but only 1% have a rare disease, flu remains more likely despite overlapping symptoms. This is valid because it follows probability rules.
Base Rate Fallacy (Paradox of the False Positive)
Definition: Ignoring base rates (general probabilities) in favor of specific details, leading to flawed conclusions.
Example: In a population where 99% are vaccinated and 51% of infected people are vaccinated, you might think the vaccine has no effect. However, because 99% are vaccinated, most infected people are likely to be vaccinated by chance, even if the vaccine is effective. The Base Rate Fallacy occurs when people ignore the high vaccination rate and wrongly assume vaccination doesn’t reduce infection risk.
Slippery Slope Fallacy
Definition: Asserting that one action will inevitably lead to a series of negative consequences without evidence for such a chain reaction.
Example: “If we allow late homework, soon no one will meet deadlines.” This is valid because no causal connection is proven.
Confirmation bias
Definition: The tendency to favor, interpret, and recall information that supports one’s preexisting beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Example: Only reading news that aligns with your political views. This is valid because it reflects selective exposure to confirm biases.
Barnum effect
Definition: The tendency to accept vague, general statements as personally meaningful, often seen in personality tests.
Example: “You often feel uncertain but are driven by ambition.” This is valid because such statements apply broadly yet feel specific.
Toupeé Fallacy
Definition: Assuming that all bad examples of a category are visible while good examples go unnoticed, leading to biased conclusions.
Example: Believing all toupees look fake because you only notice the bad ones. This is valid because unseen successful cases are ignored.
Cherry picking
Definition: Selecting only data or evidence that supports a specific argument while ignoring data that contradicts it.
Example: Highlighting studies showing coffee is healthy but ignoring studies linking it to anxiety. This is valid because it skews conclusions.
Attitude polarization
Definition: The phenomenon where exposure to mixed evidence strengthens one’s existing beliefs rather than weakening them.
Example: A debate on climate change makes a skeptic more skeptical. This is valid because conflicting data reinforces prior bias.
Superstition / Skinner’s Pigeons
Superstition / Skinner’s Pigeons
Definition: Associating unrelated actions with outcomes due to false causal beliefs, as demonstrated in experiments with pigeons rewarded randomly.
Example: Wearing “lucky socks” to every exam. This is valid because no real causation exists between the action and the outcome.
Hindsight bias
Definition: The tendency to see past events as predictable or inevitable after they have already happened.
Example: After a stock market crash, claiming “I knew it would happen.” This is valid because it misrepresents prior uncertainty.
Survivorship bias
Definition: Focusing on successes while ignoring failures, leading to skewed conclusions.
Example: Believing that dropping out of college leads to success because of stories like Steve Jobs, while ignoring countless failed dropouts. This is valid because failures are excluded from the analysis.
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Definition: Cherry-picking data clusters that support an argument while ignoring randomness or inconsistencies.
Example: Claiming a region with high cancer rates proves environmental dangers without checking if rates are randomly distributed. This is valid because randomness is disregarded.
clustering illusion
Definition: Overinterpreting patterns in random data as meaningful clusters.
Example: Seeing a “lucky streak” in coin flips. This is valid because the human mind misinterprets random outcomes as significant.
cancer clusters
Definition: Instances where cancer cases appear concentrated in a region, often wrongly attributed to environmental causes rather than random chance.
Example: Believing a small town’s cancer cases must be due to pollution when they align with national averages. This is valid because the clusters are random, not causal.
Fallacy of Composition/Divison
Definition: Assuming that what is true for the part is true for the whole (composition) or vice versa (division).
Example: Assuming a team of star players will automatically make a great team. This is valid because individual success doesn’t guarantee collective success.
Hanlon’s Razor
Definition: A principle that advises against attributing malicious intent to actions that can be explained by ignorance or incompetence.
Example: Assuming someone cut you off in traffic because they’re in a hurry, not because they’re rude. This is valid because simpler explanations are prioritized over malicious intent.
Fundamental Attribution Error
Definition: Overemphasizing personal traits and underestimating situational factors when explaining others’ behavior.
Example: Calling someone lazy for being late without considering traffic. This is valid because situational factors are ignored.
Red Herring Fallacy
Definition: Introducing irrelevant information into an argument to distract from the main issue.
Example: In a debate about climate change, shifting the topic to personal energy usage. This is valid because the diversion avoids addressing the main argument.
Straw Man/Figure Fallacy
Definition: Misrepresenting someone’s argument to make it easier to attack, often by exaggerating or distorting their position.
Example: “You want stricter gun laws? So, you want to take away everyone’s guns!” This is valid because the original argument is oversimplified and misrepresented.
