final Flashcards
causes of october 1973 war
- war of attrition (1969-70); israel maintains grip on sinai
- nasser death in 1970
- hafez al assad seizes power in 1970 in syria
- israeli miscalculation/overconfidence
elements of miscalculation oct 1973 war
- israel did not think egypt would go to war w israel until they neutralized israeli air power and syria would not go to war without egypt
- thought they had qualitative advantage militarily even though they were outnumbered
- egypt mobilized its army 3 times in years leading up to the war, so israeli generals dismissed intelligence reports about arab states’ prep for war (signal vs noise)
arab states’ strategy oct 1973 war
- sadat approached US to negotiate w israel; prepared to accept UN res 242
- israel PM golda meir refuses; sadat turns to war
- egypt saw israeli overconfidence as advantage; starts planning war w syria
- element of surprise, contrasting from 1956 war failure
general shazly of egypt
- architect of early victory in oct 1973 war
- clean slate in military
- took innovative approach; was not jaded by defeat of 1967
outbreak of october 1973 war
- 6 oct: egyptian and syrian troop formations invade israeli-held sinai and golan heights on yom kippur; jewish fortifications fell quickly
- israeli air force loses dozens of planes to new soviet missiles
timeline of oct 1973 war
- 8-9 oct: israeli tanks hold line vs syrian forces and counterattack on golan heights
- 9 oct: egyptian forces hold advantage in western sinai; destroy 260 israeli tanks
- 13 oct: sadat orders egyptian army to attack deeper into sinai; israeli ambush awaits
- 14 oct: israeli forces win major tank battle in sinai against egypt
- 15-22 oct: israeli forces cross suez canal into egypt and force end to a war
ends in stalemate - 26 oct: war formally ends but fighting in golan heights continues jan 74
outcome oct 1973 war
- reversal of humiliation of 1967 war for egypt and restored national pride; israelis humbled
- sadat paving war for 77-79 peace negotiations
- increasing role of superpowers, crisis escalates b/w ussr and us
1973 oil embargo
- solidarity b/w egypt and saudi arabia; rare moment of pan arab pan islamic unity
- arab petroleum exporting countries threatened oil embargo on countries assisting israel during the war
- nixon defies via airlifted weapons; arab states curtail oil exports to US
- global price quadruples and fuel is scarce
- arab countries cut production, reducing flow of oil, skyrocketing prices and causing a global recession
- tension bw us and west eu allies
timeline of peace 1977-79
- 1973: arab israeli war ends in stalemate; egypt fails to retake sinai peninsula by force
- 1972-5: sadat begins exploring possibility of relying on usa rather than ussr
- 1977: sadat first arab leader to visit israel; proposes peace deal
- 1978: us pres carter hosts sadat and israeli PM begin at camp davind for negotiations; sadat and begin sign a peace deal where israel returns sinai peninsula to egypt and egypt gives israel diplomatic recognition and peace deal
- 1979: deal is finalized on white house
made provisions for palestinian autonomy in israeli occupied west bank and gaza but was never implemented
two level bargaining (stein)
- two leaders negotiating: international table together and domestic table at home
- domestic crises in egypt and israel imposed costs on participants, changed calculus from seeking relative gains to avoiding absolute loss
- two level games: egyptian israeli and us decision makers were constrained as much by domestic as by international factors
egypt’s strategic outlook 79 peace negotiations
- egypt faced a growing econ crisis; wanted to attract investment from oil rich states and support from the us
- ending war w israel once and for all would free up resources to address domestic political and economic challenges
- only the us could pressure israel to negotiate
- sadat abandoned other arab countries and ussr to gain support from us as economic crisis worsened
israel’s strategic outlook 79 peace negotiations
- massive military spending after shock of 1973 war which contributed to economic crisis
- egypt was israel’s most powerful regional adversary; peace deal would free up resources to reduce deficits and inflation
- also needed us to broker any peace deal because of reliance on military and econ assistance
us outlook 79 peace negotiation
- pres carter wanted to prevent future regional war in middle east
- which would protect energy stability
sadat’s visit to jerusalem
- aimed to increase domestic support in israel and us for peace deal
- visited jerusalem to make a gesture that would persuade israel of his sincerity
- broke arab states’ longstanding refusal to deal directly w israel
- convinced many in israel that peace w egypt was achievable
- expanded israeli PM begin’s “win set” of foreign policy outcomes that begins domestic constituency would find acceptable
synergistic linkage
- success in 1978 camp david negotiations linked to domestic considerations
- sadat needed deal to alleviate growing economic crisis; could only be w us help and us would only help if egypt stayed in negotiations
- carter invested a lot of time in this negotiation so his image would suffer if it went badly
- begin faced economic pressures w pro peace movement in israel demanding deal w egypt
camp david peace deal impacts (stein)
- 79: egypt suspended from arab league and wouldn’t be readmitted until 89
- egypt becomes second biggest recipient of us military aid after israel
- oct.6 1981 sadat assassinated by islamist extremists
- “cold peace” exists to this day
- israel-egypt security cooperation still strong
context for 1982 war
- 200,000 palestinians expelled from jordan in black september 1970 and moved into lebanon
- plo played a role in lebanese civil war bw sunni muslims shi’a muslims and maronite christians (some say even caused it)
- israel had strategic advantage (egypt peace treaty, nuclear deterrence, incr military)
lead up to 1982 war
- 1978 israel secretly aligns w christian phalangist militias under command of gemayel clan, defense minister ariel sharon
- sharon planned to eradicate plo from lebanon and install bashir gemayel as pm
- jan-feb 82: sharon and begin both meet w gemayel
- 3 june 82: abu nidal group shoots israeli ambassador shlomo argov on iraqi orders
- israel uses assassination as pretext to launch invasion of lebanon
- hafez al-assad stationed syrian troops and surface-to-air missiles in south lebanon to deter invasion
- 8-9 june: israeli airstrikes destroyed syrian missiles and wiped out much of syrian air force
israel strategic advantage 1982 war
- non unitary decision making: defense minister sharon and idf chief of staff eitan
- aim to eradicate plo and syrian forces from lebanon, align w friendly militias, and install proxy head of state (bashir gemayel)
PLO decisions 82 war
- palestinian and lebanese popular opinion were key factors shaping plo decision-making
- plo had centralized command of operations during war
- no arab states intervened
- plo ambushes took heavy toll as israelis encircled beirut; boost for palestinian morale
- aims: slow down israeli advance, inflict max casualties, preserve existence of plo forces
1982 war: “israel’s vietnam”
- undeclared war june-aug 1982
- 20,000 lebanese and palestinian dead
- 650 israelis dead, thousands wounded
- august: PLO withdrawal from beirut
- aug 12 1982: gemayel assassinated
- aug 16 1982: phalangist militants massacre 1500 palestinian civilians at sabra and shatilla camps as israeli forces stand by
outcome of 1982 war
- PLO relocates to tunisia
- farthest it had been from palestine; disconnect bw PLO and palestinians living in gaza/west bank under military occupation
- palestinian armed groups fragmented, replaced by iranian backed shi-a militia hezbollah as key militia fighting israel from lebanon
- israeli troops remained in lebanon until 1985
- israel created proxy south lebanon army (SLA)
domestic impacts for israel 1982 war
- social fragmentation around how to resolve non existential security threats
- huuuge anti war protests; 10% of pop at protest sep 25
- sharon forced to resign
- gov launches kahan commission to investigate decision making
- extreme right wing grenade attack killed protester (foreshadow right wing jewish violence)
new strategy after 1982 war
- rise of proxy warfare/non state armed groups
- rise of islamist ideology (hezbollah, hamas, jihad)
- rise of iranian regional influence
- incr use of suicide bombing as a tactic