Final Flashcards
How long does it take for a model to lose its “skill”?
6 days
How long does it take an ensemble forecast to lose its “skill”?
15 days
What are slight alterations in a model forecast called?
Perturbations
How many ensemble members will typically be conducted on a model?
12 - 30
What is the average of all of the ensemble members called?
ensemble mean
What are the two categories of problems with ensemble predictions?
- Chaos
2. Model Error
Why does the ensemble mean get smoother the more lead time you have on a forecast?
Has to account for the damping of troughs and ridges due to the average of forecasts including chaos
Waves cancel out each other
What are the two heavy green lines plotted on the ensemble forecast?
Represent climatology of wave position, and encompass 30 years of data
What does the blue line represent on the ensemble forecast?
High latitude position
