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Feeding 9 Billion > Final > Flashcards

Final Flashcards

0
Q

Potential availability of uncultivated land

A

Sub-Saharan Africa, 200 M ha
Latin America and the Caribbean, 125
Rest of world, 100

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1
Q

Increasing food supply

A

The target, 1.3% of current yield trends per year to 2030

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2
Q

Why do we consider potential yield and farm healed?

A

Deals gap = potential yield - farmer yield

Expressed throughout as percentage of farm yield

Potential yield acts as a ceiling for farm yield

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3
Q

What is the difference between spring and winter wheat

A

40% winter, 60% spring

Winter wheat
Grown in temperate cropping systems, cold enough to send wheat into dormancy, warm enough to support the crop. Higher-year-old because dormant. Extends its growth duration
Springwheat
Grown at low latitudes in the winter, grown at high latitudes in the spring

Springwheat needs a warm and wet winter which is why you have the seasons changing for latitudes

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4
Q

Wheat production stats, Area, Farm yield, gap, trends,

producers

A 
Production, 660 MT
Area 220 MH essay, about equally split between developed and developing countries
Farm yield, 3 t/ha
yield gap, 50%
Area trend, -.2% growth per year
Yield trend, +1% per year
Top producers, China India US Russia
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5
Q

What is a mega environment

A

Group of locations consistently share the same best types of plant varieties

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6
Q

Rice global statistics, production, area, farm yield, yield gap, area trend, yield trend, top producers

A 
Production, 680 mt
Area, 160 MHA
Farm healed, 4.3 t/ha
Yield gap, 72%
Area trend, +0.3% growth per year
Yield trend, +1% per year
Top producers, China India Indonesia
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7
Q

Maize global statistics, production, area, farm yield, yield gap, area Trend, yield trend, top producers

A 
Production, 830 Mt
Area, 165 MHA
Farm yield, 5.3 t/ha
Yield gap, 100%
Area trend, +.9% growth per year
Yields trend +1.5% per year
Top producers, US China Brazil
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8
Q

Raising yields, lowering YG and raising PY

A

About 50% of games in production can come from closing gaps in rice wheat and maze.

A yield gap of 30% is economically optimal. Getting below that level depends on the weather and prices, which farmers don’t know in advance. Or there are a lot of little things happening on the farm that don’t warrant the attention or time. There’s too much cost for not much benefit.

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9
Q

MME7, United States, farm yield, gap, evolution of US corn yields and practices

A

Farm yield, 10 t/ha
Gap, 50%
Nearly all us corn is hybrid (96%)

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10
Q

Soy global stats. Production, area, farm yield, yield gap, area trend, yield trends, top producers

A 
Production, 240 MT
Area, 100 MHA
Farm yield, 2.4 t/ha
Yield gap, 30%
Area trend, +1% growth per year
Yield a trend +1.3% per year
Top producers, US Brazil Argentina
Fastest growth in production
Most protein per Hector
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11
Q

Farm yields important points

A

Closing your apps are the quickest and surest way to raise farm yield.

In areas with low yield gaps the only way to raise farm yield is by increasing potential yield

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12
Q

Important equations

A

YG(%)=(PY-FY)/FY*100
Or
YG=PY-FY
FY2/FY1=(1+G1)/(1+G2)

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13
Q

What are the two general types of yield gap constraints?

A

One. Technical/proximate constraints related to land, crops, inputs

Two. Constraints relating to general farmer circumstances and capabilities

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14
Q

Methods to study causes of yield gaps

A

Farmers surveys
Expert surveys
Crop modeling
Spatial analysis

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15
Q

Factors affecting PY

A 
Genetics
Temperature
Carbon dioxide
Radiation
Water limited PY, rainfall, irrigation
Nutrient limited PY, soil degradation
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16
Q

Causes in wheat systems, tactical or proximate constraints, which are potential yields versus yield gap issues?

Heat stress, weeds, diseases/pests

A

Heat stress, YP
Weeds, YP
Diseases/pests, YG

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17
Q

Wheat in Asia, causes of yield gap

A

Biotic stresses like weeds and diseases are the main issues in Asia

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18
Q

Causes in wheat systems Australia

A

Yield gap in Australia grows with the amount of rainfall

Farmers usually add the economic optimum level of fertilizer for dryers as weather forecasts uncertain

this makes crops nutrient deficient in wet years

19
Q

Causes of YG, bottom line

A

Many factors are involved in creating yield gaps

Often don’t know which factors are the most important

In situations of low and/or uncertain returns it’s not worth it for farmers to spend money on reducing gaps

At the same time, there’s evidence that gaps are closing in many systems so progress can be made

20
Q

Approaches to lowering yield gaps

A 
Agronomic.
Improved machinery especially for smallholders
Improved nutrient management
Integrated pest control
Weather forecasts

Breeding.
Host plant resistance to disease and pests
Herbicide a tolerant crops
Gaps are closing the most rapidly in areas with rapid GMO adoption

21
Q

How potential yield has increased since 1960 for four major crops

A

Wheat, increased harvest index
Rice, increased harvest index
Corn,
Temperate, hybrids and denser sewings lead to more biomass
Tropical, increased harvest index under stress
Soy, increased biomass and harvest index

22
Q

What is a hybrid crop?

A

seed produced by cross-pollinating plants. this produces a mixture of different plants with different traits.

23
Q

Hybrid corn

A

Corn is cross pollinating, usually pollinated by another individual.

Hybrid vigor

  • create in bread corn by forcing the plant to self pollinate
  • crossing two in breads often results in a higher-yielding variety
  • however as cross pollination vigor decreases
  • incentive for companies to produce hybrid seed

Almost all core and in the US is hybrid

Cross-pollination happens a lot for corn but this means that the varieties are always changing different heights maturities etc.

Being able to buy hybrids and makes it easier to create hybrid vigor

24
Q

Is it easier to hybridize corn rather than wheat or rice?

A

Corn is crossed pollinating. Rice and wheat are self pollinators

25
Q

Global protein consumption trends

A
  • animal products are 40% of total protein consumption
  • us is one of the highest meet consumers
  • US consumption peaked in 2012
  • beef going down chicken on the rise
26
Q

US livestock production systems

A

Cows

  • cows eat the same amount of grain in the US as chicken/pigs
  • eat the most grass too

Animal production getting more efficient

Beef much less efficient

Top crop eaten is corn, with soy and a far second behind

27
Q

Global livestock systems

A

Most of the worlds cows don’t eat grain

In general most livestock is from smallholder farms

Nonindustrial systems have lower efficiencies

28
Q

Why are efficiencies much lower in nonindustrial systems

A

Lower quality of diet
Lack of supplements
Animals don’t grow as quickly

29
Q

Fish and aquaculture systems

A
  • 17% of all animal protein
  • Half a fish eaten is farmed
  • Fish are more efficient then land animals
  • aquaculture fee includes lots of crops, rapeseed, canola
30
Q

Issues in African agriculture

A

Important trends

  • farms are getting smaller, most people farm on .5 Ha
  • land is becoming scarce and there are big inequities in distribution, highly skewed towards large landowners
  • population growth is outpacing land expansion
  • both the low land and labor productivity
  • low fertilizer use leads to nutrient deficiency
31
Q

Other issues affecting fertilizer effectiveness

A
  • timing of the application
  • Soil carbon content
  • Application method
  • salinity
  • alkalinity
  • climate change
  • pests/diseases
32
Q

Other issues affecting fertilizer effectiveness: Other Options

A
  • lime subsidies, makes soil pH more basic and make fertilizer use more effective
  • R and D, seeds, fertilizer mixes, organic options
  • diversifying diets
  • intercropping legumes
  • agro-forrestry
33
Q

Pros/cons of local food

A

Energy Consump:on/CO2

  • Transportation between countries less than local food produc:on and consump:on.
  • May be more efficient to produce in other country [esp if not using machinery which happens in Africa]
  • Coming from further could use fewer emissions if going by ship.
  • Food waste is a bigger issue.

Social Effect

  • Brings communi:es together; supports local farmers
  • Air freight of food uses a lot of energy
  • People flying planes use more
  • People in other countries need incomes

Economic Impact

  • Support local farmers and economy
  • More expensive, less variety, time-consuming

Safety

  • Shorter supply chain; know who you’re buying from.
  • Not necessarily safer. Could be a protec:onist measure [so people support local economy rather than suppor:ng another country]
34
Q

What is a GMO?

A
  • genetically modified organisms
  • technically GM over first two any organism whose genetic makeup has been altered by genetic engineering
  • transgenics
  • transgenics not necessarily GMO’s

(transgenic’s, not sexually compatible)

35
Q

Main GMO crops, Main growing countries

A

Soybean, cotton, maize, canola

Mainly grown in USA Brazil and Argentina

36
Q

What is BT?

A
  • bacteria producing protein toxic to insects
  • most widely used organic pesticide since 1920
  • lower pesticide amounts now used after adoption
  • on 12% cropland
37
Q

How does Roundup work?

A
  • herbicide that blocks the production of an enzyme that helps plants grow
  • ” roundup ready”/ herbicide tolerant crops immune to Roundup
  • problem, increasing weed resistance
38
Q

What are some common GM traits

A
  • BT(Cotton, Corn…)
  • herbicide tolerant, Roundup ready (soy, corn, canola…)
  • often stacked (used together)
39
Q

Conservation tillage

A

-herbicide tolerance soy grower found to have higher rates of conservation tillage than those using conventional

Why? Telling usually to disrupt weed/pest cycles

40
Q

GMO less common traits

A

drought tolerance, beta-carotene expression, rings spot virus resistance

41
Q

Work five takeaways

A
  • Energy costs combined are comparable for Thailand and California, Energy cost of transportation is higher for Thailand and California, Energy cost of production is higher for California than Thailand
  • takes more energy for us to transport rice from the store to home then from Sacramento to LA
  • Energy to produce 1 L of imported bottled water equals energy costs of California and Thailand rice
42
Q

HW 6 takeaways

A

-currently, the beef production system in the US occupies 60 M ha

  • converting to a grass fed system would require:
  • 10% more cows
  • 20 M ha of the additional land (30% increase)
43
Q

Pros/cons of local food

A

Energy Consumption/CO2

  • Transportation between countries less than local food produc:on and consump:on.
  • May be more efficient to produce in other country [esp if not using machinery which happens in Africa]
  • Coming from further could use fewer emissions if going by ship.
  • Food waste is a bigger issue.

Social Effect

  • Brings communi:es together; supports local farmers
  • Air freight of food uses a lot of energy
  • People flying planes use more
  • People in other countries need incomes

Economic Impact

  • Support local farmers and economy
  • More expensive, less variety, time-consuming

Safety

  • Shorter supply chain; know who you’re buying from.
  • Not necessarily safer. Could be a protec:onist measure [so people support local economy rather than suppor:ng another country]
44
Q

Fisp

A

Fertilizer inputs subsidy program objectives (FISP)

  • poverty reduction
  • Increase food security and income
  • improve agricultural productivity
Pros and cons of FISP
Supporters
-better than food aid, 
   creates an employment on the farm, 
   less disruptive of the market
-Raised production

Critics
-financially unstable
fertilizer subsidies okay on temporary basis to stimulate increased fertilizer use in short runs
prices also shot up with production
some farmers not getting enough production from extra fertilizer use
-most fertilizer went to top farms
-questionable production figures produced by government
-300 K metric ton difference between Farmer and government claims of fertilizer being distributed

conclusions of FISP

  • uneven distribution, 64% of FISP kgs went to top 37% of farms
  • leakage and diversion, only 63% of the fertilizer reach their final destinations, the other 37% was lost in the process
  • only 15% of growth was due to fertilizer use, the majority was due to better weather and land expansion
  • the fertilizers where ineffective for only a small range of pH levels, much of the soil was too acidic
45
Q

Where could future increases in PY come from?

A

Continued increases in HI for spring wheat, tropical maize, soybean
-Unlikely for winter wheat, rice, or temperate maize—there’s an HI limit of 55%

More radiation capture

  • Faster early season growth
  • Delayed senescence

Higher radiation use efficiency
-More erect leaves

More water use

  • Deeper roots
  • No till
  • Higher TE

Hybridization of self-pollinators (rice - CHINA, wheat)
-One time 10-15% boost

Conversion of rice from C3 to C4
-More biomass per given amount of water and radiation

Feeding 9 Billion (2 decks)

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