Final exam revision Flashcards
(97 cards)
What are the forecasting-based valuation models?
Direct approach: Direct estimate of the value of shareholder’s equity
- Dividend discount model (DDM)
-Residual earnings (RE) model?
Indirect approach: Indirect estimate of value of the company and deduct the value of debt
- DCF model
-Residual op. income (REOI) model
Relative valuation?
Valuation based on multiples
What are some advatages and disadvantages of the DCF model?
Advantages:
- Easy concept (CFs are real and easy to comprehend + Familiar PV techniques)
Disadvantages:
-Fails to recognize value generated that does not involve cash flows
-Firms can increase FCF by cutting back on investments, causing investments to be treated as a loss of value
What is the REOI model?
Value of firm = Net operating assets (NOA) + premium generated from residual operating income.
REOI = OI -WACC x NOA
What does beta L equal to?
BL = Bu(1+(1-Tc)(D/E))
What is WACC and what is its formula?
How do you value a private firm?
- Estimate the discount rates - We assume that investors of publicly-listed firms are completely diversified. Not the case for private. Obtain B for private firm:
1a) Obtain a list of publicly-listed similar companies
1b) Regress historical stock returns of similar companies against market returns to obtain beta.
1c) Infer total b for private companies we divide by the r^2 value. eg - 1.24/sqroot(0.25) = 2.48
1d) Calculate re using rf, market risk premium and beta.
What is an option to delay and what are the inputs?
A bad project today (neg. NPV) may become a good project in the future as the expected cash flows and discount rates change over time.
When a firm has exclusive rights to a project or product for a specific period it can delay taking this project or product until a later date. Thus a project that does not pass today, does not mean this project is not valuable.
Inputs:
1. Value of underlying asset > PV of expected cash flows from initiating project now
- Variance in the value of asset
>Var. in ash flows of similar assets or firms
>Var. in PV from capital budgeting simulation - Exercise price option
>A delay option is exercised when the firm owning the rights to the project decides to invest
>Cost of this decision is the exercise price of the option - Expiration of option
>Life of patent/license; relinquish period; time to exhaust inventory - Cost of delay (div. yield)
>Each year of delay translates into one less year of value-creating cash flows
>Annual cost of delay: 1/n
Please provide the formula for the call option used in option to delay
Please value the option to delay as well as the firm
Please describe the option to expand
Taking a project today may allow a firm to consider taking another valuable project in the future
Thus, even though a project may have a neg. NPV, it may be a project worth taking if the option to expand provides the firm a large enough value to compensate for the initial loss
What is the formula for the call option in option to expand?
C = S x N(d1) - Ke^-rt x N(d2)
Implications of valuing options to expand
The option to expand is implicitly used by firms to rationalize taking negative NPV investments, but provide significant opportunities to tap into new markets or sell new products.
Option to abandon:
A company has the option to abandon a project at a certain stage in the life of the project, when its cash flows do not measure up to the expectations.
If abandoning the project allows the firm to save itself from further losses, this option can make a project more valuable
Option to abandon formula
Define corporate governance
Measures in place to align the interests of owners and managers
What is the agency problem?
Agency problem refers to difficulties that financiers have in assuring that their funds are not expropriated or wasted on unattractive projects (Shleifer and Vishny, 1997)
Two types of agency behavior
Managerial risk aversion: Risk-averse CEOs forego risky but high NPV projects > Need governance mechnaisms to motivate these CEOs to work harder
Managerial unethical behavior: Reckless & Fraudulent CEOs
>Need governance mechanisms to punish these CEOs for bad behavior
Level 1 thinking of pay
Pay levels do not affect incentives
De Ree et al. (2018) Indonesia doubles teacher pay at experimented schools to encourage effort. Outcomes? - They remained equally lazy, but happier.
Level 2 thinking of pay and the pros/cons
Sensitivity of pay
Make the CEO’s pay sensitive to firm performance
Pay with stock/options rather than cash
Pros:
CEOs will work harder to increase share prices to gain higher compensation.
Pay-performance sensitivity is a powerful way to cut CEO slack.
Cons:
Edmans, Fang, and Lewellen (RFS 2017): CEOs reduce investments (R&D, CAPEX) to inflate stock prices when they need to redeem their shares
Burns & Kedia (JFE 2008): Sensitive pay is linked to accounting misconduct
Level 3 pay thinking
Level 3 thinking: Pay structure (pay duration & pay ratio)
Pay duration (period): whether number of shares that a CEO receives is based on short- or long-term. Powerful way to align the CEO with short-or long-term value.