Futures Contracts 2 Flashcards
(9 cards)
How does one choose the futures contract to use for hedging?
This choice has two components:
1. The choice of the asset underlying the futures contract
2. The choice of the delivery month
When there is no futures contract on the asset being hedged, choose the contract whose futures price is most closely correlated with the price of the asset being hedged.
A contract with a later delivery month than the expiration of the hedge is usually chosen. The reason is that futures prices are in some instances quite erratic during the delivery month. Moreover, a long hedger runs the risk of having to take delivery of the physical asset if the contract is held during the delivery month. Taking delivery can be expensive and inconvenient.
In general, basis risk increases as the time difference between the hedge expiration and the delivery month increases. A good rule of thumb is therefore to choose a delivery month that is as close as possible to, but later than, the expiration of the hedge.
What is cross hedging?
Cross-hedging is when a hedger uses a futures contract with a different but correlated underlying asset to hedge price risk.
This is typically done when:
- No futures exist for the exact asset.
- The available futures contract has a strong historical correlation with the hedged asset.
However, it introduces basis risk, the risk that the price movements between the hedged asset and the futures asset diverge.
The party with a short position in a futures contract sometimes has options as to the precise asset that will be delivered, where delivery will take place, when delivery will take place, and so on. Do these options increase or decrease the futures price? Explain your reasoning.
These options make the contract less attractive to the party with the long position and more attractive to the party with the short position. They therefore tend to reduce the futures price.
What are the most important aspects of the design of a new futures contract?
The most important aspects of the design of a new futures contract are the specification of the underlying asset, the size of the contract, the delivery arrangements, and the delivery months.
Explain how margin accounts protect investors against the possibility of default.
A margin is a sum of money deposited by an investor with his or her broker. It acts as a guarantee that the investor can cover any losses on the futures contract. The balance in the margin account is adjusted daily to reflect gains and losses on the futures contract. If losses are above a certain level, the investor is required to deposit a further margin. This system makes it unlikely that the investor will default. A similar system of margin accounts makes it unlikely that the investor’s broker will default on the contract it has with the clearing house member and unlikely that the clearing house member will default with the clearing house.
Show that, if the futures price of a commodity is greater than the spot price during the delivery period, then there is an arbitrage opportunity. Does an arbitrage opportunity exist if the futures price is less than the spot price? Explain your answer.
If the futures price is greater than the spot price during the delivery period, an arbitrageur buys the asset, shorts a futures contract, and makes delivery for an immediate profit. If the futures price is less than the spot price during the delivery period, there is no similar perfect arbitrage strategy. An arbitrageur can take a long futures position but cannot force immediate delivery of the asset. The decision on when delivery will be made is made by the party with the short position. Nevertheless companies interested in acquiring the asset may find it attractive to enter into a long futures contract and wait for delivery to be made.
Under what circumstances are (a) a short hedge and (b) a long hedge appropriate?
A short hedge is appropriate when a company owns an asset and expects to sell that asset in the future. It can also be used when the company does not currently own the asset but expects to do so at some time in the future. A long hedge is appropriate when a company knows it will have to purchase an asset in the future. It can also be used to offset the risk from an existing short position.
Explain what is meant by a perfect hedge. Does a perfect hedge always lead to a better outcome than an imperfect hedge? Explain your answer.
A perfect hedge is one that completely eliminates the hedger’s risk. A perfect hedge does not always lead to a better outcome than an imperfect hedge. It just leads to a more certain outcome. Consider a company that hedges its exposure to the price of an asset. Suppose the asset’s price movements prove to be favorable to the company. A perfect hedge totally neutralizes the company’s gain from these favorable price movements. An imperfect hedge, which only partially neutralizes the gains, might well give a better outcome.
A futures contract is used for hedging. Explain why the daily settlement of the contract can give rise to cash flow problems.
Suppose that you enter into a short futures contract to hedge the sale of an asset in six months. If the price of the asset rises sharply during the six months, the futures price will also rise and you may get margin calls. The margin calls will lead to cash outflows. Eventually the cash outflows will be offset by the extra amount you get when you sell the asset, but there is a mismatch in the timing of the cash outflows and inflows. Your cash outflows occur earlier than your cash inflows. A similar situation could arise if you used a long position in a futures contract to hedge the purchase of an asset at a future time and the asset’s price fell sharply.
