GE lost by govt rather than won by opposition Flashcards
(10 cards)
intro
examples used from 79,97,2010 and 24 GEs
leadership for -
in an IPSOS Mori poll before the 2010 GE, who was regarded the most capable PM and from what %?
1- Cameron = 33%
2- Brown = 29%
1) LEADERSHIP for (LOA)
- LOST BY GOVT DUE TO UNPOPULARITY OF PM
favourability of -51% with the public - tarnished by involvement in Partygate and viewed as out of touch - in campaign popularity dropped further for leavening an event commemorating D-Day early to attend ITV Interview.
- Starmer won 174 seat majority yet net favourability of -17% (YouGov)
2010 -
- unpopularity of Gordon Brown
- reputation of being cowardly, boring and uninspiring. Cameron didn’t need to be hugely popular to go against this
same for 1979-
Callaghan mocked for his failure to deal with militant TUs, leading to the Winter of Discontent– labour highly unpopular so didn’t matter that Thatcher wasn’t well known.
1) LEADERSHIP against
However, if leader unpopular and not electoral asset - removed by party for leader who can offer something new.
- Recent Con Party past decade removed 3 leaders who had become unpopular with the public due to failing when in power- May, BJ, Truss
- before 2019 GE BJ brought in and able to distance himself from the rest of the party and successfully win the election for the conservatives - in part due to his charisma and personal popularity.
Popular leaders important
- Blair 1997- seen as strong, competent and charismatic, with a clear vision and control over his party. This contrasted Major who was seen as weak, especially in terms of controlling divided party due to Europe. He was also tainted by the cash for questions scandal.
2) COMPETENCE for (LOA)
LOST BY THE GOVT AS THE PERCEIVED INCOMPETENCE OF THE GOVT WHEN IN PFFICE IS OFTEN A KEY REASON WHY VOTERS VOTE FOR THE OPPOSITION.
1979-
Labour voted out due to perception unable to manage economy and TU’s in the context of WofD. this gave Cons ability to push idea that the country needed a new direction - hence slogan “Labour Isn’t Working”
1997-
- perceived economic incompetence was also insignificant in the 1997 election. By 1997 the country was recovering from recession of the early part of the decade, but voters remembered the catastrophe of ‘Black Wednesday’ in Sept 1992- lost reputation as competent managers of the economy and failed to retrieve it.
2024-
- incompetence of Con govt since 2024 without a doubt the most important factor in Labour’s landslide victory in the 2024 election.
- public viewed the Cons as untrustworthy due to a large number of scandals, which lead to the party’s vote share dropping from 43.6% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2024.
- failure to follow own COVID-19 regulations revealed by 2021 ‘Partygate scandal’
- this was made worse with Truss’ 49 day premiership, as the unfunded tax cuts in her September 2022 mini-budget caused the pounds value to plummet and increased interest rates and mortgage rates. – YouGov- majority voted labour to get Tories out rather than bc they supported labour
what was the Winter of Discontent?
1979
The govts attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases led to widespread strikes and a sense of national paralysis.
2) COMPETENCE against
OPPOSITION ARE ONLY ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM THE GOVTS INCOMPETENCE AND WIN ELECTION IF PERCEIVED TO BE COMPETENT THEMSELVES
1997-
Labour successful in presenting themselves as economically competent party, pledging not to increase income tax and to prioritise national finances.
1979-
- messaging focused on bringing down inflation. the labour party’s did too however theirs lacked credibility due to their failure when in office.
2024-
- LP succesful in presenting itself as competent and the antithesis of the Tories. Led to electoral success, as the 2019 Con voters felt comfortable defecting (rebelling). They were boring and uninspiring, but they didn’t put off voters due to appearing too radical; Labour shifted to centre ground e.g. not raised income tax.
3) RATIONAL CHOICE AND ISSUE BASED VOTING against
won by opposition as they are able to provide a manifesto and policy platform to the electorate that offers a real change and benefits them economically.
1997-
Blair rebranded party - drove forward the policy of modernisation and abandoned old-fashioned party policies such as nationalisation and strengthening of TU powers, which might put of M/C voters.
- also became increasingly tough on law and order, an issue that natters to voters after the increasing crime rates in the early 1990s.
Labour able to offer a concrete policy platform and real change to the electorate, which enabled labour to win the election with a landslide.
what was Blair’s law and order slogan?
‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’
3) RATIONAL CHOICE AND ISSUE BASED VOTING for (LOA)
lost by govt as opposition parties often have similar policies to the governing party, but are able to win as they provide a change in terms of leadership and aren’t tainted by their record in govt as the governing party is.
1979-
both parties prioritised bringing down inflation and the Cons manifesto contained very little indication Thatcher intended to move her party so far the right. there was mention of returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing TU powers, but no suggestion of the radical crusade to scale down the state sector that followed
2010-
L+C policies very similar; both parties supporting austerity and bringing down the deficit, but Cons had more success as their reputation for economic competence by the financial crash as L’s had.
2024-
LP moved to the centre and was beer careful in selecting differences in policy from the Conservative Party.
- similar in many areas - both promised to invest in the NHS and tackle illegal immigration.
This meant that the election was mainly fought on the govt’s record, rather than on policy positions.
