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1
Q

US Annual Power Production

A

4,200 TWh / yr
(~37% implied effective capacity factor)

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2
Q

US Power Gen Capacity

A

1.3 TW
or
1.3 million MW

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3
Q

Nuclear share of global output

A

10%

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4
Q

Number of nuclear plants in Africa (2023)?

A

One. In South Africa
Nameplate capacity: 2 x 970 MW (1,940 MW)
Capacity factor: 80.4%

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5
Q

Extent of Sub-Saharan Africa population without electricity

A

Half of population: i.e., 600mm people

Wiki: population of Sub-Saharan Africa was 1.21 billion. The region is made up of 53 countries,

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6
Q

Nuclear share of US production?

A

~20%

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7
Q

Nuclear share of US installed capacity

A

95GW or ~8% of installed capacity

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8
Q

Existing US installed nuclear capacity in terms of SMR equivalents (300MW each)

A

100 GW / 300 MW = 333 SMRs

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9
Q

Cost to build large scale nuclear ($/kW)

A

History suggests $6,000-$12,000 per kW all-in. i.e., $6-12bn for a single 1GW plant

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10
Q

Implied cost to re-build existing nuclear fleet at $6,000-$12,000/kW

A

100 GW * $6,000-$12,000/kW = $600B (low end) to $1.2T

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11
Q

South African (nuclear) power company

A

Eskom (Electricity Supply Commission of South Africa)
Public: US$52B assets

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12
Q

Number of commercial nuclear plants in US

A

54 nuclear power plants in 28 states with 93 reactors

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13
Q

Average nuclear plant size, US

A

95 GW over 54 plants = 1,800 MW
(Simple: 100 GW over 50 plants = 2 GW)

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14
Q

US population

A

333 million

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15
Q

US households

A

133 million

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16
Q

Capex to replace existing nuclear fleet with 300MW SMRs at FOAK cost

A

Existing: 100GW nuclear
So 333, 300MW SMRs
…Capex at $5bn each: ~ $1.5T+

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17
Q

Number of coal plant sites in US

A

> 200

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18
Q

Microsoft market cap

A

$3.1T

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19
Q

Approx cost $/kW of FOAK SMR

A

$5-10B for 300M = $16,000 - $32,000 /kW (i.e., twice the rough historical cost range to build existing large scale plants)

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20
Q

Texas population

A

30 million

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21
Q

NYC population

A

9 million

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22
Q

NY State population

A

20 million

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23
Q

California population

A

40 million

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24
Q

Number of people gained in TX per day

A

1,300
(per Sempra IP April 2024; source: Census)

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25
Texas peak demand (summer ‘23)
85 GW
26
Nuclear reactors globally
442
27
Global annual capital required to effect the energy transition?
McKinsey (2022): $9.2T/yr thru 2050 (up from current run rate of $3.5T) — alternatively they also say (?) a $1T increase per year vs business as usual IEA says spending would increase to $4T/yr vs $2.8T current run rate Deloitte: $5-7T/yr
28
Global GDP?
~$105T
29
US GDP
$27T
30
China GDP
$20T
31
Germany GDP
$4T
32
India GDP
$4T
33
Japan GDP
$4T
34
Saudi GDP
$1T
35
Canada and Mexico GDP
Canada: $2.1T Mexico: $1.7T
36
Combined market cap of all US public companies
$50T
37
Estimated market cap of private capital backed companies
Private capital backed: PE-backed $3-4T VC-backed: $3-4T Source: Pitchbook Random guy on internet: $30T all private cos
38
How many SMRs (300MW) to replace existing TX capacity
85GW / 300MW = 280 SMR plants
39
World population
8 billion
40
Births every day, global
~385,000
41
Global population growth, daily and annually
~200,000 daily ~ 75 million annually (or ~1% on 8B world population)
42
Top 10 countries by population
India 1.5B China 1.5B US 330mm Indonesia 275mm Pakistan 250mm Nigeria 230mm Brazil 220mm Bangladesh 175mm Russia 144mm Mexico 130mm
43
Population of largest countries #11-20
Ethiopia 130mm Japan 120mm Philippines 120mm Egypt 115mm DR Congo 105mm Vietnam 100mm Iran 90mm Turkey 86mm Germany 83mm Thailand 70mm
44
UK, France, Italy, Korea, Spain, Argentina, Canada, Saudi population (selected countries not in top 20)
UK 67mm France 65mm Italy 59mm S Korea 50mm Spain 48mm Argentina 46mm Canada 38mm Saudi 36mm
45
Solar cost $/W FOAK SMR cost $/W
$1/W solar $16/W SMR (assuming $5B for a 300MW FOAK)
46
Average US household peak and average power demand
BKH: **Peak** power consumption for a residential home can range from 3–5 kW for minimal to 20 kW for very high. The average home uses 5–10 kW, while larger homes, especially those with electric heat, can use over 20 kW EIA: avg American home uses 10,791 kWh/yr. That's 29 kWh/day or 1.2 kW average demand.
47
CO2 emissions mix by sector
40% power 25% industry 25% transport 10% buildings
48
US population % of global
4%
49
Number of countries in world
195
50
Fossil fuels % of US generation output
~60%
51
Minimum amount of nuclear capacity needed to effect the ET, as a multiple of current capacity
Doubling or tripling (Dan Poneman)
52
Number of reactors being built globally in 2024
As of December 2023, 61 nuclear reactors are under construction and 110 are planned worldwide, with a combined capacity of 68 GW and 110 GW, respectively. China leads the way with 64 GW of new nuclear capacity under construction, followed by India with 8 reactors, and Turkey with four reactors. Other countries with reactors under construction include: Egypt, South Korea, Russia, Bangladesh, Japan, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Argentina, and Brazil.
53
[Hydrogen 101]
54
[Geothermal 101]
55
Population of Luxembourg
650k
56
UST 10yr
https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate#:~:text=10%20Year%20Treasury%20Rate%20is,a%20maturity%20of%2010%20year.
57
Sources of US GDP?
Mix 1: - Personal consumption 70% - Govt expenditures/investment 15% - Private domestic investment 15% - Net export -3% Mix 2 -
58
Daily US electricity consumption
Total: 11.5TWh/day (based on 4,200 TWh/yr) Solar ~0.5TWh/day
59
Annual output of 1 GW of generation at 50% CF
4.4TWh = 1 GW * 8,760 * 50%
60
Median US savings account balance Median US retirement account balance
Median bank account balance is $8,000 (mean is $62k) 2022 median retirement savings for American households was $87,000
61
How many households does 1GW power?
Avg household avg demand = 1.5kW so…approx 600k TO BE CONFIRMED
62
Market cap of Berkshire
$800B
63
Market caps of Exxon, Chevron, Shell and BP
$500B Exxon $300B Chevron $250B Shell $175B TotalEnergies $100 BP
64
Who are in the G7?
Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental political and economic forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States; additionally, the European Union (EU) is a "non-enumerated member". It is organized around shared values of pluralism, liberal democracy, and representative government. G7 members are the major IMF advanced economies.
65
Countries not represented in G7 but with economies larger than Canada
China India Brazil
66
Population by continent
Asia: 4.8B Africa: 1.5B Europe: 750mm North America: 350mm South America: 215mm Oceania: 45mm
67
Global power generation capacity
8.5 terawatts Is expected to almost double by 2050, surpassing 15 terawatts.
68
Global generation capacity per capita
~1kW
69
Cost to build 100GW nuclear at $4,000/kW
$400B
70
Global installed nuclear capacity
~400 GW (2023) — 440 nuclear reactors operating in 33 countries
71
Scope 1 2 3
72
Texas economy rank if were a country?
73
Enrichment capacity and US needs for enriched fuel
74
US share of global nuclear capacity
~30% of global nuclear generation (largest country)
75
US generation capacity …per capita …per household
1.3 TW / 330 million = ~4kW per capita 1.3 TW / 130 million = ~10kW per household
76
Global power production
~25,000-29,000 TWh (Implied ~35-40% capacity factor on 8TW capacity)
77
Nuclear share of global installed capacity, and share of generation output
~5% of capacity ~10% of output
78
US electricity consumption by end user segment
Residential: 39% Commercial: 35% Industrial: 26% Transportation: 0.2%
79
Westinghouse ownership
Brookfield 51% Cameco 49%
80
% Fixed vs variable costs (lifecycle): nuclear vs CCGT
Nuclear: 72-85% Capex/Fixed CCGT: 20-25%
81
Canada Population
40 million
82
Mexico Population
125 million
83
US nuclear plant mix: PWR vs BWR
~2/3 are PWR
84
PWR vs BWR
— Both are light water — PWR has two separate loops of water: coolant vs steam loop — BWR one loop (coolant becomes the steam); more complex / larger
85
Traditional EPZ in acres
200,000 acres EPZ = 10 mi radius = 314 square miles * 640 acres per square mile = 200,000 acres
86
Uranium Enrichment Levels U-235 vs U-238
Natural: 0.7% U-235; 99% U-238 LEU: 3-5% U-235 HALEU: 5-20% U-235 HEU: >90% U-235
87
Uranium Enrichment Levels U-235 vs U-238
Natural: 0.7% U-235; 99% U-238 LEU: 3-5% U-235 HALEU: 5-20% U-235 HEU: >90% U-235
88
Nuclear operating in how many countries globally?
33 countries
89
Examples of Ancillary Services
Spinning / Non-Spinning Reserve Voltage Support Black Start Load Regulation
90
Nuclear employment in US
60,000 jobs directly and “hundreds of thousands more” indirectly - DOE 2024
91
Y-12 National Security Complex location
Oak Ridge, TN
92
Who operates Y-12?
Bechtel, Leidos, Northrop Grumman, and SOC (Day & Zimmerman?), with Booz Allen Hamilton as subcontractor
93
1GW of Nuclear: how many TWh
8.760 TWh at 100% CF

Power & Nuclear (1 decks)

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