Guestlecture 2 Flashcards
Russia's relation with the West: geopolitical confrontation or clash of civilizations?
The problem of Russia’s identity and great power status
Sovereign democracy and primacy of national over international law (incl. on human rights)Russia as a separate civilization: autocracy, orthodoxy and nation: traditional values; Russia as the “true Europe”Russia as a re-emerging Great Power in a multipolar world with a right to a sphere of influence, especially in the Near AbroadRussians, Ukrainians and Belarusians as one nation*The Russian World and Russia’s right to protect “Russian citizens” abroad: Russia’s R2P
Political isolation of Russia
foreign agent laws, laws against undesirable organisations, laws on “extremism” and other repressive legislation*Sovereign economy and a sovereign information space (Runet); protecting traditional values as a security concern
Russia’s farewell to modernisation
kleptocratic business model, based on export of energy and raw materials; withdrawal from WTO?
Russia’s withdrawal from multilateral rules-based order
including European Court Human Rights; Russia’s non-acceptance of essential international legal obligations, including (parts of competence of) ICJ, ICC, ITLOS (Greenpeace-ship), international arbitration (Yukos)
Possible outcome uneasy, temporary truce
A military stalemate ensues as Russia’s offensive stalls and Ukrainian counter-offensives impose severe costs on Russia’s military but fail to dislodge it from all occupied territories. Both parties tacitly or overtly agree to temporarily cease hostilities, without resolving the underlying causes of the conflict. It can flare up again at any time. Important factors: security guarantees, enhanced role for the EU?
Possible outcome 2, prolonged war of attrition
Having consolidated behind defensive positions in Kharkiv and Kherson Russia continues its offensive in the Donbas, albeit at a reduced pace as ammunition stocks run low on both sides. The war becomes a grinding war of attrition, in which military-industrial production, economic stability and western support to Ukraine are crucial factors. Question: can the EU replace US support?
Possible outcome further escalation
Faced with major battlefield defeats and the risk of losing territory Russia considers as its own, Putin formally declares an all-out war. Russia escalates with large-scale bombardment of Ukrainian cities and possibly the use of weapons of mass destruction. Question: what does new Russian nuclear strategy entail?
Possible outcome defeat and implosion of the Russian Federation
Military defeats, economic troubles at home and growing social discontent eventually force the Kremlin to cease its operation and withdraw from Ukraine. Regime change is accompanied by large-scale instability within Russia itself. Question: what is the role of China?
