Inductuve Logic

Question 0

Working out prob A or B,or where A+B is mutually exclusive

Answer 0

Pr(A or B) = Pr(A) + Pr(B)

Question 1

How do inductive arguments differ from deductive

Answer 1

Inductive=

Riskier
Ampliative
Can’t be asserted on basis of the argument alone, but on background evidence

Eg
Last time John missed work he had been drinking
John isn’t at work today
Therefore John has been drinking

Deductive are valid/invalid, inductive are weak/strong

Inductive arg’s premises don’t strictly entail conc, but make it more likely

Question 2

Prob of A+B where A and B independent

Answer 2

Pr(A+B) = Pr(A) x Pr(B)

Question 3

What is the Gamblers fallacy

Answer 3

When 2 probe are independent, but actor thinks they aren’t

Question 4

Conditional probabilities

Answer 4

Pr(A/B) = Pr(A+B) / Pr(B)

Question 5

3 types of inductive interference

Answer 5

1) from sample to pop
2) from sample to next member
3) from pop to sample

Question 6

From sample to pop

Answer 6

Make sure:

A) sample is reasonably large (law of large numbers- bigger size means less deviation)

B) sample is representative (random)

Question 7

Pop to sample

Answer 7

You want to know chance of liking B
You know they’re member of pop. Of categories (men, philosophy lecturers…)
From facts you can infer certain probs
BAYE’S THEOREM- way of getting from these individual probs to prob of liking B