Intro/Presidential Nomination Process

Question 1

introduction to elections:

briefing of the system

Answer 1

• the US is a federation, with elected officials at the federal, state and local levels
• the President is elected indirectly by the people through an electoral college
• all members of the federal legislature, the Congress, are directly elected
• each state has an elective governor and legislature

Question 2

introduction to elections:

elections

Answer 2

• state laws regulates most aspects of the election, including primaries, the eligibility of voters, the running of each state’s electoral college, and the running of state and local elections
• the constitution defines how federal elections are held, in Article one and Article two and various amendments

Question 3

introduction to elections:

turnout

Answer 3

• the federal government has also been involved in attempts to increase voter turnout, by measures such as the National Voter Registration Act of 1993
• turnout in federal elections is generally lower that other Western democracies
• in 1996 only 48.4% of eligible voters voted in that year’s Presidential election
• turnout is often in fact higher in state elections and referendums, reflecting the fact that many Americans are engaged to a greater extent in their locality and state

Question 4

introduction to elections:

finance

Answer 4

• financing of elections has always been controversial
• namely because private sources make up substantial amounts of campaign contributors, especially in federal elections
• Voluntary public funding for candidates willing to accept spending limits was introduced in 1974 by an amendment to the Federal Election Campaign Act has the responsibility to dislocse campaign finance information, to enforce provisions of the law such as the limits and prohibitions on contributors, and to oversee the public funding of US presidential elections

Question 5

introduction to elections:

presidential nomination process

Answer 5

• US presidential election campaigns are the longest election campaigns in the world, as each party’s nominee is chosen through an extensive state-by-state democratic procecss before the election campaign itself
• they are the most expensive in the world
• in 2012 the Obama and Romney campaigns spent $2.5 billion in total
• the presidential election process is divided into the following sections:

1. the ‘invisible primary’ - from January to December of the year preceding the election itself
2. primaries/caucuses - elections to choose each party’s nominee for the election, from January to June of the election year
3. National Convention - where the formal nomination occurs in August of the election year
4. election campaign - the formal campaign between the two candidates, from August until November of the election year
5. electoral college - the indirect system by which US voters choose their president in November of the election year

Question 6

the ‘invisible primary’

Answer 6

• the invisible primary allows candidates to raise funds for the upcoming primary and caucus elections, secure high-profile endorsements and to garner public support
• the fund raising numbers and opinion polls are used by the media to predict who the front runners for the nomination are
• candidates who raise the most money are often declared the ‘favourites’ for the nomination - crucial stage of campaign for presidency
• evidence that this is true: in the last six competitive nominations in the GOP, the ‘winner’ of the invisible primary became the nominee on five occasions
• but on the democrat side this only occurred on three of six occasions

Question 7

when does an invisible primary start?

Answer 7

• there is no formal start date to the invisible primary
• lots of contenders will announce long before the first primary
• e.g. in 2007 Obama was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for the following year’s presidential election (332 days before the first primary election)
• but fund-raising will often start significantly before this
• there is already speculation about the next Presidential election - Marco Rubio, a leading GOP, has an established PAC called ‘Reclaim America’ which is fundraising for the 2016 campaign

Question 8

POLITICO article

The invisible primary: GOP preps as Chris Christie stumbles

Answer 8

• Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, has gamed out his 2016 options with a small team of longtime advisers
• Indiana Gov. Mike Peace has met with prominent conservatives, urging him to consider the race
• the Republican presidential field is aflutter with behind-the-scenes activity even at this preliminary stage, giving early shape to Christie, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and Texas Senator Ted Cruz
• in 2012, Mitt Romney survived a savage primary contest, largely because of his financial and organisational dominance
• Romney’s Iowa campaign chief, David Kochel, said the flurry of Republican activity contrasts with the minimal movement on the Democratic side: “Whether its Jeb Bush on education, or Marco Rubio on foreign policy, or Rand Paul on NSA, they’re looking for and finding opportunities to grow the base”
• Marco Rubio has surrounded himself with presidential-level strategists and policy advisers from the outset
• Reclaim America ran TV ads last year for Arkansas Senate candidate Tom Cotton and New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte. The core of his nation operation is perhaps the strongest in the field

Question 9

how important is the invisible primary?

Answer 9

• the process of front-loading has increased its significance
• the ability to demonstrate the greatest number of endorsements and the strongest fundraising operation is clearly influential
• in 2007 there was much debate over Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton

Question 10

what is the ‘negative impact’ of invisible primary?

Answer 10

• the early scrutiny of candidates for the Presidential nomination can make the departure of some inevitable
• this was the case in 2011 invisible primary, when Herman Cain withdrew due to media coverage of sexual harassment claims and poor media performances by Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry made their departure from the nomination process in Jan 2012 effectively a foregone conclusion

Question 11

media debates in invisible primary

Answer 11

• a poor performance can detrimentally impact a candidate’s campaign
• for example, in the CNN June 2011 debate Tim Pawlenty was heavily criticised for his response to a question regarding his characterisation of Romney’s healthcare record as Massachusetts Governor as “obamneycare”
• his faltering response, in which he appeared to back down from the accusation and then claim that he hadn’t, led many media commentators and Republican donors to question to question his candidacy. he withdrew the next day
• much of the focus of potential Democratic nominees in 2016 has centred on two women: Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren. There has been much media speculation about these two candidates and Hillary Clinton published a book in 2014 outlining her political beliefs, a classic staple of the invisible primary period

Question 12

BBC Hillary CLinton’s ‘unfinished business’

Answer 12

• it has become a common practice for modern politicians to use a book, and the accompanying publicity tour, to lay the groundwork for a presidential bid
• Politico’s Maggie Haberman said Ms Clinton “was criticised as difficult to connect to during the 2008 presidential race”. Now, she says, her plan “is clearly to reveal a more personal side”
• it seems as though Ms Clinton is not exactly throwing cold water on the rampant speculation about her plans for 2016 presidential election

Question 13

primaries and caucuses

Answer 13

• the series of presidential primary elections and caucuses held in each state is part of the nominating process of United State presidential election
• some states only hold primaries and caucuses are staggered between January and June before the general election in November
• the primary elections are run by state and local governments, while caucuses are private events that are directly run by the political parties themselves

Question 14

primaries and caucuses: delegate

Answer 14

• a state’s primary election or caucus usually is an indirect election: instead of voters directly selecting a particular person running for President, it selects the delegates each party’s national convention will receive from their respective state
• these delegate then in turn select their party’s presidential nominee
• each party determines how many delegate are allocated to each state
• along with those delegate chosen during the primaries and caucuses, state delegations to both the Democratic and Republican conventions also include “unplugged” delegates, usual current and former elected officeholders and party leaders, who can vote for whomever they want
• the system of presidential primaries and caucuses is somewhat controversial because of its staggered nature

Question 15

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Primary Election

Answer 15

• a statewide formal section to select a preferred candidate as the party’s Presidential nominee. This is to select delegates to vote on behalf of the state party and the National Party Convention

Question 16

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Caucus

Answer 16

• a statewide series of meeting in which party supporters discuss a preferred candidate as the party’s Presidential nominee, after which a vote is taken
• this is to select delegates to vote on behalf of the state’s party and the National Party Convention

Question 17

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Closed primary/caucus

Answer 17

• only registered party supporters can vote

Question 18

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Open primary/caucus

Answer 18

• all voters can take part in an open primary and may cast votes on a ballot of any party
• the party may require them to express their support to the party’s values and pay small contribution to the costs of the primary

Question 19

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Semi-closed primary/caucus

Answer 19

• registered party supporters and registered independents can vote

Question 20

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Winner-takes-all

Answer 20

• a primary/caucus in which the winning candidate wins all of the state party’s delegates

Question 21

Primaries and Caucuses can be classified in different ways:

Proportional

Answer 21

• a primary/caucus in which candidates receive a proportion of delegates according to their level of support
• this might involve ‘top two proportionality’, whereby only the top two candidates receive a proportion of delegates, or there might be a minimum benchmark before delegates would be awarded to a candidate

Question 22

what is the key point about primaries and caucuses?

Answer 22

• voters are selecting delegates to vote a particular way at the National Party Convention, at which the party’s Presidential candidate is formally chosen
• as candidates drop out during the process, the earlier primaries and caucuses have greater significance in determining the outcome
• moreover, one candidate may have amassed more than had the available delegates before some primaries are held
• this happened in 2012 when during the GOP primaries Mitt Romney was declared the presumptive nominee on the 25th of April.

Question 23

what was the shape of the early GOP primary season in 2012?

Answer 23

Jan 2: Iowa caucus 
Jan 10: New Hampshire primary
Jan 21: South Carolina primary
Jan 13: Florida 
Feb 4: Nevada caucus
and it continues...

• the early states have enormous influence in shaping the race for the Presidential nomination

Question 24

• who were the three main contenders that dominated these early primaries and caucuses in 2012?

Answer 24

• Mitt Romney won in 14 states
• Rick Santorum won in 6 states
• New Gingrich won in 2 states

Question 25

what is front-loading?

Answer 25

• because the early primaries and caucuses are so much more influential than those after Super Tuesday, some state parties will ignore the wishes of the national party and hold their primary or caucus earlier in the year

Question 26

give an example of front-loading

Answer 26

• in 2008 the Florida Democratic Party front-loaded its primary to increase its significance in the process
• the national party (the Democratic National Committee) punished the Florida Democrats by awarding the Florida delegates only a 1/2 vote each at that year’s National Convention
• the national parties often prefer an extended process to ‘test’ candidates effectively and provide more opportunities for fund-raising

Question 27

Mitt Romney’s succes in primary

Answer 27

• he had won more that half of the available delegates by the end of April and had effectively become the nominee before the holding of the California and Texas primaries, the two largest states in the US
• all but one of his opponents endorsed him at this point if they hadn’t done so already, with the exception of Ron Paul, a libertarian-minded Republican who continues to stand right up to the National Convention even though he knew he had no chance of winning

Question 28

some primaries and caucuses are advisory. What does this mean?

Answer 28

• they do not ‘bind’ the delegates at the National Convention
• 2012 Republican primaries and caucuses which were purely advisory were: Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wyoming

Question 29

Strengths of Primaries and Caucuses

Answer 29

1. Protects democratic principles of public participation and representation. This is especially true of open primaries
2. Allows initially weaker candidates to build momentum and prevents the nomination from being solely decided by the candidate who amassed the greatest funds during the invisible primary
3. The staged state-by-state process tests the candidates rigorously, ensuring the strongest and most electable candidate is nominated
4. Protects the voice of smaller states like New Hampshire since California and Texas, the two most populous states which might otherwise dominate, are late in the process
5. The parties are essentially federal bodies, and it is correct that state parties should determine how their delegates are allocated

Question 30

Weaknesses of Primaries and Caucuses

Answer 30

1. the staggered system breeds a basic political inequality as voters in alter states have very little say in the outcome
2. The different types of primary/caucus (open/closed/semi-closed) and different rules for allocation of delegates also makes the process unequal, with votes in different states being counted differently
3. states with two closed primaries effectively disenfranchise registered independent voters as they can vote in neither primary
4. the two earliest states - Iowa and New Hampshire - are highly unrepresentative of the general US population. Candidates are forced to tailor policies to these states
5. Open primaries can lead to party crashing, in which supporters of the opposing party deliberately choose a weak candidate

Question 31

why has there been proposals to reform the system

Answer 31

• problems of front-loading and a compressed primary calendar
• Tennessee Senator Bill Brock said: “Today too many people in too many states have no voice in the election of our major party nominees. For them, the nominations are over before they have begun”

Question 32

and what are the proposals for reform?

Answer 32

The American Plan: starts with small primaries, and gradually moves up to larger ones, in 10 steps, with states chosen at random. This would mean that fewer initial primaries, typically in smaller states would allow grassroots campaigns to score early successes and pick up steam. But, since states are chosen at random, travel costs may still be significant

The Delaware Plan: state are grouped by size into four groups, with the smallest primaries first, then the next-smallest and so on. Populous states objected to the plan, however, because it would have always schedules their primaries at the end of the season. Also the wide geographic range of the states, necessitating high travel costs. The Delaware Plan was put to vote at Republican National Convention of 2000 and rejected

The Regional Primary Plan: rotating regional primary system, with the country split into four regions: the west, the Midwest, the South, and the Northeast. Unlike Delaware Plan and the American Plan, the Rotating Regional Primary System would lower campaigning costs by restricting groups of primaries to single, contiguous regions

A National Primary: This plan would involve a single-day on which all state primaries and caucuses would be held, with over 120 bills offered in Congress. As discussed, the disadvantage of this would be the cost and the ability of wealthy campaigns to dominate

Question 33

National Party Conventions

Answer 33

• technically ‘presidential nominating conventions’, the official and formal event at whig each national party selects its nomination for the Presidential election
• held in august
• for each party the convention signifies the end of a presidential primary season and the start of campaigning for a general election
• in recent years the nominee has been known well before the convention, leading many to oppose the convention as a mere public relations event and coronation
• there are formal and informal functions of the NPC, the formal ones being historically important that are less so now
• in 2012, Mitt Romeny had been declared the presumptive nominee and he chose Paul Ryan as his Vice-presidential running mate the week before the convention
• Moreover, votes held in both parties about the Party Platform are informal shouting contests, with delegates shouting ‘aye’ or ‘no’ with the chair of the convention deciding which side won

Question 34

What are the three formal purposes for holding a National Party Convention

Answer 34

1. Select the Party’s nomination for President: the delegates selected during the primaries and caucuses vote for their preferred candidate. This is usually a mere formality as one candidate will have already emerged as the winner several months before and have been declared the party’s presumptive nominee
2. Select the party’s nomination for Vice-President: the same process as above, although again this is a formality as the Presidential presumptive nominee will have already chosen his running mate
3. Endorse the National Party Platform: this is a stamen of the party’s beliefs and values. The Platform will have been drafted in the months before the convention and so again this is a formality

Question 35

what are the informal purposes of the conventions?

Answer 35

1. Demonstrating party unity: this can be important after a divisive primary contest. This function was demonstrated in 2008 after the hugely divisive competition between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Nomination. At the 2008 Democratic National Convention Clinton interrupted the delegate voting and requested that all the delegates proclaim unanimously that Obama was the Democratic nominee (thus rendering superfluous results from the primaries and caucuses of the preceding six months)
2. Communication with voters: the NPC are major media events and provide an opportunity to communicate the candidate’s message to voters. The last night of the 2012 Democratic Convention drew 35.7 million viewers, although this was down from 38.9 million in 2008. In 2012 both parties held their conventions in swing states (GOP-Florida, Democrats-NOth Carolina) which gave an opportunity to communicate with voters in electorally important areas
3. Fundraising: with the national spotlight on each party for almost a full week the conventions provide a significant opportunity for the national parties to raise money for the Presidential Election itself in Novemeber. This has led to some criticism, such as journalist Ted Koppel declaring of the 1996 GOP National ConventionL “This convention is more of an informercial than a news event”

Question 36

The Guardian: Democratic convention erupts over reinstatement of Jerusalem to policy - Sep 2012

Answer 36

• democratic national convention in Charlotte has been plunged in chaos
• Jewish donors and pro-Israel groups objected to the dropping of a line supporting Jerusalem as the capital of Israel from the Democratic policy platform
• the 2008 Democrat party platform was published without recognition of Jerusalem
• pressure had been building and resulted in a reintroduction of the line recognising Jerusalem
• at the formal opening of the day’s business, the convention chairman, Antonio Villaraigosa, proposed a vote to return to the document its past commitment to Jerusalem as the Israeli capital as well as a reference to God
• there was controversy over how the voting process was carried out as those in favour would shout ‘aye’ and those against, ‘no’. it was hard to tell, with the two sounding evenly-divided. After three tries at calling the vote Villaraigosa called it for the Ayes
• the change required a two-thirds majority in favour and it definitely did not sound anywhere close to that

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Question 37

CNN: Romney offers Reaganseque themes in defining speech - August 2012

Answer 37

• Mitt Romney accepted the Republican nomination for president on Thursday night by asking voters
• in his speech he evoked themes and imagery of GOP icen Ronald Reagan in describing a future of opportunity and promise for the nation
• nationally televised address concluded the storm-shortended convention that sought to galvanise the conservative Republican base behind Romney and frame the upcoming election as a referendum on Obama’s presidency
• the convention attacked Obama and championed conservative principles
• hollywood legend Clint Eastwood laid the foundation for Romney’s highly anticipated speech
• CNN analysts said the speech was successful in appealing to the base and showing some of Romney’s personal side
• “It had a lot of heart. It needed more soul” - David Gergen CCN analysts
• he aimed to show a more personal side after criticism for being stiff and impersonal by telling stories of family life such as the single rose his father gave his mother every day, and the incessant household noise in raising five boys
• paying tribute to his wife, Ann, Romney expressed admiration for the role of women in society in a bid to appeal to women voters who polls show currently favour Obama
• Romney then focused on his ideas for ending the nation’s economic callings – lingering high unemployment, sluggish economic recovery, a chronic deficit and debt problem
• other issues mentioned reflected traditional conservative policies – opposition to gay marriage and abortion, no tax increase for the middle class, and strong support for Israel
• rival is Gingrich

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