Iran Flashcards
What does Iran claim?
claims it has been developing nuclear power for civilian uses (energy)
Civilian nuclear reactor = built by Russia
Even though Iran make a claim about developing nuclear power for civilian energy what still stands?
♣ For many years it failed Iran abide by UN / IAEA demands
♣ (Former) President Ahmadinejad repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel
♣ Iran was predicted to have a usable nuclear bomb soon; this would have HUGE consequences on the regional balance of power, international relations and nuclear deterrence
What does Iran do in February 2010?
Iran steps up uranium enrichment (up to 20%)
Gave 3-month deadline to the West for deal: Iran would give them low enrichment uranium and the West would turn it into nuclear fuel and return to Iran for civilian uses. Deal failed.
Tuesday 9 February 2010: Iran commences uranium enrichment
Thursday 11 February 2010: Ahmadinejad declares Iran “a nuclear state”
Thursday 18 February 2010:
Leaked IAEA report – Iran may be developing nuclear missile
What did Iran then do on the 17th may?
Iran, Turkey and Brazil close a deal
- Iran has 2,200 kilos of uranium
- 1,200 kilos will be given to Turkey to turn it into (civilian) nuclear fuel
- Agreement criticised because it (a) circumvents the UN/IAEA process, (b) it leaves 1,000 kilos unaccounted for (which Iran refuses to surrender) and (c) does not address the issue of Iran enriching its uranium at 20%
What does the IAEA report find in January 2011?
Presents evidence that Iran has carried out activities “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device
What does the US do in 2012 after finding out that Iran has carried out relevant activities towards the development of nuclear explosives?
- US imposes sanctions on Iran’s central bank and against three oil companies that trade with Iran (including China’s state oil company)
What does the EU after the IAEA report?
Impose an oil embargo on Iran
What does IAEA confirm?
- IAEA confirms Iran started production of uranium enriched up to 20% (medium-level) at a secret underground plant at Qom
What is Netanyahu’s ‘red line speech?
Netanyahu is Israels prime minster and he called on the international communities to set a clear red line to stop Iran making a nuclear weapon
What is Iran’s red line?
Acquiring high enriched uranium
Why is it bad when Iran has gone past the red line?
-Time is running out
-♣ once Iran gets the bomb then it’s impossible to attack it using conventional weapons because it could go nuclear
♣ Window of opportunity for US / Israel to attack nuclear plants & HQs before it’s too late
Why is it bad if Israel/ US attack the nuclear power plants?
♣ Impossible to hit all of them simultaneously
♣ Likely targets: Isfahan, Natanz, Arak
♣ Some facilities (e.g. Natanz) are in concrete-protected underground bunkers and require “bunker busters”
♣ This requires extreme precision and low-level flights
♣ S300 surface-to-air missiles secretly sold to Iran by Russia – can destroy up to 30% of Israeli jets
♣ Environmental/humanitarian cost: if Bushehr (main – and nearly complete - nuclear reactor) is hit > long-term mass destruction, hundreds of thousands dead/cancer
Why can’t Israel go it alone with Iran?
- extremely risky, huge cost (political/diplomatic, security/defence, humanitarian, economic); no guarantee of success
- Their ballistic missiles aren’t precise enough
- Targets are 1,800klm away from Israeli bases; Israeli jets will need refuelling on air (Israel has only 8-10 such flying tankers; US = 80)
- Neighbouring (Muslim) countries will react (Turkey, Syria)
- Will trigger counter-attack by Iran + by Hezbollah and Hamas
- Likely outcome: to delay the programme by 2-10 years
What is the US’s response to Irans nuclear weapon development?
US govt ‘hawks’ and the Israeli lobby in Washington have been pushing for pre-emptive strikes against all known nuclear targets (research plants and reactors)
The Obama Administration did not rule out the military option; but Obama favoured diplomacy / the soft response: not just for humanitarian reasons (ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – big risk of over-stretching)
During the last few years: arming UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar with patriot missiles (surface-to-air, ABM); US Navy presence in SE Mediterranean and the Gulf carrying ABM = creating an anti-missile shield around Iran
When is the most likely time for a nuclear attack?
Between April to June
What has Iran’s nuclear programme created?
A nuclear arms race in the middle east
What is US strategic aim when it comes to Iran’s nuclear programme?
To arm regional powers iN ME to act as deterrents
What do the UAE and US do on the 17th December 2009?
Push billion dollar nuclear co-operation deal
When is the first reactor expected to made in the UAE?
2017
Who is John Kerry?
Former US Secretary of State (under President Obama)
Proactive foreign policy in the Middle East (Syria, Palestine/Israel, Iran)
Who is the new president of Iran?
Hassan Rouhani
What is the new Iran nuclear deal that happened in January 2014?
Iran will halt further - and will dilute existing - stockpiles of near-20% enriched uranium. It will not build new or develop its existing enrichment facilities.
In return, the world powers will ease sanctions and will provide Iran with relief / aid.
Six-month test period
When was the planned date for signing the final agreement of the Nuclear deal?
30 June 2015
What is the april 2015 agreement?
¥ Uranium enrichment:
2015: 20,000 centrifuges limited to installing up to 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient ones at Natanz for 10 years
Uranium stockpile to be reduced by 98% to 300kg for 15 years
Keep the level of enrichment down to 3.67%
R&D to only take place at Natanz
¥ Plutonium plant:
Redesign the reactor at Arak so as to not be able to produce weapons-grade plutonium
20 tonnes of heavy water to be shipped to the US
No more heavy-water reactors to be built
¥ Monitoring:
IAEA inspectors will continuously monitor Iran’s declared nuclear sites and will verify that no material is moved covertly to a secret location
IAEA inspectors are allowed to access any site anywhere in the country that they deem suspicious
24 day notice to comply with IAEA access request.
¥ Sanctions:
Sanctions imposed by the UN, the US and the EU (costing the Iranian economy more than £110bn in oil revenue alone) will be lifted.
