L11 - conflict and peace in Asia Flashcards
(22 cards)
(about exam) + intro
- focus on the slides, the text on the slides, not the pictures
- and the readings
so lecture recordings are not important: just read the slides
READING enhances/complements what is in the lectures
sweetener: next class tuesday hint about open question to help study
__ intro
if there will be a new war in Asia, it will likely start on the Quemoy island
Wars in Asia since 1945
- Chinese civil war
- Korean war
- War in Indochina
- Vietnam Wars (French, US, PRC)
- Sino-Indian War
- India vs Pakistan
WW2 in Asia
WW2: most fighting was going on in China + begins in 1937 in Asia rather than 1939
!1937 is the key date
Japan lost 2.5 million military and civilians (losses also in terms of actual power)
= Sino-Japanese War 1937-45
cost of war for China remains a subject of debate (between 9,4 million and 20 million dead, 60-95M refugees)
- second highest losses in WW2 after the USSR
= Japan’s war against US, British, Dutch (1941-45)
- US lost 106k dead
- Britain 90k casualties
- Commonwealth 70k+ casualties
Japan after WW2
!!! Japan’s military power decisively defeated in WWII
= was not regained later (at least in military sense)
Thereafter not viewed as a military threat
Despite vast physical destruction, Japan remains the great industrial power of Asia … but loses its biggest market … China
With US support, Japan rebuilds economy and expands outside of China
by 1980s Japan rivals US econ
- it was the great power on the rise (speculation about US-Japan war bc eco competition)
by 1990s Japan econ falters - new rising power becomes China
- 9/11 -> China less attention, but now again much
Chinese civil war
phase 1 = 1927-1937
- prior to Japanese war
phase 2 = 1945-1949
- nationalist forces escape to Taiwan + set up new gov there
- result = PRC
= between communist forces and nationalist forces
changes the security landscape of Asia + define the period ever since
-> domestic consequences US: idea of loss of China, that they didn’t do enough to help the nationalists
-> from here other conflicts become of interest of outside powers (e.g. Indo-China)
- e.g. US interest in Indochina, Malaya, Indonesia = in decolonization
= defines security environment of Asia for many decades
Asia in the early cold war
Korean War: try to create distraction in Asia to take eyes of Europe??
nothing on the slides to go off
Korean War
1950-53
Casualties (killed + wounded): 4 million (70% of deaths civilians)
Impact felt around the world
- China intervenes (not overtly: volunteers rather than Chinese army)
- Fear that Soviet Union would take advantage and invade W. Europe -> US rearmament
Leads to US rearmament, expansion of NATO, defense of Taiwan, support to French war in Indochina, support to British fight in Malaya
- debate about defense budget: massive increase = revolutionizes US defense
Creation of permanent US military presence in S. Korea
- announced by Truman, to defend Taiwan (bc PRC was trying to invade it)
- US starts to support French in Indochina
A technical state of war on Korean Peninsula still exists
- de facto peace, but de jure war
- no peace treaty
United Nations Command (UNC)
= preview next week
= July 24, 1950
as response to attack North Korea on South Korea
signifies world’s first attempt at collective security under the UN system
UNSC Resolution 83 + 84 provided the int’l legal authority for member states to restore peace on the Korean Peninsula
designed the US and the leader of the unified command we know as UN Command
(contributors to UN Command = really random: Belgium, Canada, Colombia, Ethiopia, Luxembourg, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand etc.)
the end of colonial empires
= nasty little wars
British fight insurgency in Malaya in 1950s (labelled an Emergency); later fight in Borneo
- British transitioning Malaya over course 1950s but still fighting communist inspired insurgency (which they called terrorists to get more US support)
- labeled as police action / emergency bc British rubber plantation owners insurance wouldn’t cover war
Dutch fight to regain control of Indonesia
IMPORTANT POINT FOR BRITISH, DUTCH AND FRENCH = MILITARILY THEY WERE SUCCESFUL: setting them back significantly
BUT IT WAS REALLY ABOUT POLITICAL PRESSURE OF THAT PERIOD + FINANCIAL COSTS: forces expensive when key interest (within NATO) to deter a SU attack = pressure to bring forces home to Europe
Despite military successes, combination of financial burden, external pressure leads both to reduce commitments/withdraw
War in Indochina
1946-54
Ho Chi Minh - raging Communist insurgency
France suffers important military defeat at Dien Bien Phu though technically remained superior to the Viet Minh forces
- becomes symbol of greatest victory since Japan beat Russia in 1904-5
- still were militarily strongest force
Despite this, the costs of maintaining presence in Indochina are too high … France withdraws after 1954
->
Vietnam split in two: Communist north and Non-Communist south pending national election
- idea they would unify in national elections after a couple of years, but US opposed bc assumed in national elections communists would win (Ho Chi Minh popular) -> north would take over south
- US effort to build up gov in South
US supports government of South Vietnam/rejects effort for national election
picture slides - more on the Vietnam war
dates highlights:
dating the Vietnam war is difficult
- growing gradual US involvement in Vietnam not really until the 1960s
- in South Vietnam coup after coup
- amidst chaos US begins to send forces = Americanization of the Vietnam war until Paris peace accords
US forces committed in South Vietnam: in beginning 9k, but rapid expansion to at highest point more than 500k
key game changer = air power: 1972: offensive against South Vietnam, was blunted by US airforces
- after 1973 didn’t let plains fly above South Vietnam again (mostly bc domestic political pressure) -> probs why North took over South
- similar to what happenned in Afghanistan after US withdrew
image of the war =
a superpower humbled (overextension, military disaster, strategically US was defeated)
a new nation (Vietnam)
(at least) 2 million dead (1954-75)
India-Pakistan Wars
(important to know)
Three wars
- 1947-1948 (over territory of Kashmir)
- 1965 (Kashmir)
- 1971 (E. Pakistan (now Bangladesh)) - when Pakistan talks about nukes, they always refer to 1971, don’t want it to happen again (traumatic event)
enormous countries, but wars really small: not that large armies, casualties and fighting, nr of combatants relatively small
Combatant casualties amount to several thousand per side per war
Fourth war
1999 = Kargil war
Combatant casualties amount to 1,000 (just enough to classify as war)
Both sides nuclear powers = interesting, but limited bc historical standards, geographic aspects and neither side wanted to escalate bc nuclear element
All wars characterized by low intensity and short duration
Sino-Indian War
Oct-Nov 1962
- concern of potential escalation
- since then several clashes
Sino-Soviet relations from the late 1960s
first half cold war SU-China were enemies, second half they were friends
key scenario from Chinese perspective that the SU would attack them (not that US would attack them), this changed later
Sino-Vietnamese War
February 1979
= turning point for war in Asia
- Labelled the “Self-Defensive Counterstrike against Vietnam” by China (对越自卫反击战)
- Labelled “the War against Chinese Expansionism” by Vietnam (Chiến tranh chống bành trướng Trung Hoa)
Begins on 17 February 1979 with invasion by 220,000 Chinese troops
very limited war:
- Military action limited to ground war only
- War lasts one month following unilateral Chinese ceasefire
- Each side suffered roughly 30,000 deaths and 35,000 wounded
- Pre-war territorial status quo maintained
= last time we see Chinese attack anybody in Asia
East-Asian Peace Theory
from 70s strange phenomenon that there’s no war in East-Asia -> why? (we do have war in Europe and the Middle East)
From 1946-1979, East Asia accounted for roughly 80 percent of the world’s battle deaths
Since 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war, countries in East Asia have enjoyed relative peace – no major interstate war, only minor conflicts, mostly internal (e.g. Myanmar)
How to explain? = no consensus
- ASEAN+ model of consultation/consensus-building, focus on trade, limited political integration (at least compared to EU) = to much to gain from trade that there’s no significant issues worth fighting over
- Democratic peace theory doesn’t work since many countries are autocratic/semi-democratic
- Deterrence?
Spread of peace did not necessarily start in 1979 but it nevertheless serves as a useful marker with no major war since
Spread of peace came about as a cumulative effect of a series of national priority shifts – governing elites decided to shift from ideological priorities to state-driven economic growth
- idea it took some decades for countries to get their act together before they became stable states, this came together by the 80s, 90s
Most Asian states stabilize politically/economically after first decades of independence – internal opposition mostly evaporates
Peace has always been fragile with nations still arming against each other, threatening each other, and making operational plans for war
Will it last for several more decades or is it likely to come to an end?
take-aways where we are today - most likely future war scenarios
- PRC vs Taiwan (US intervention? Japan?)
- North vs South Korea/US (Japan?)
- India vs Pakistan
- India vs PRC
- PRC vs Philippines (US intervention?)
- PRC vs Japan (US intervention?)
- PRC intervention in Myanmar
disputed areas South-China Sea = maritime boundaries in dispute
formation artificial islands= Chinese military bases
- start war game
desinging the war
background + basic questions
People’s Republic of China invasion of war
your role = use all knowledge you’ve gained on this course to provide insights into what is war expected to look like
- who are the participants?
- will the conflict be geographically limited to the Taiwan Strait?
- how long is the conflict expected to last?
- what limits will China and other participants place on the use of force?
- how will the conflict end?
key background: Taipei in north of Taiwan -> debates if China would start there or start in south and work way up’
potentially no proper invasion, but rather a blockade = surround Taiwan and starve it out (economically)
islands on outpost of China that belong to Taiwan, e.g. Quemoy
size and scale: China much larger army and navy BUT Taiwan has lot of reserve forces + is relatively small space, so relative powers of defenders vs amphibious landing
difficult to wage amphibious war
various US, Philippine, Japan bases in the area (Japan is key: war games often ask if China will also attack those)
invasion -> soldiers leave from naval bases -> significant warning time (if you see a lot of people going on ships)
- warning time important in int’l crises
- war games other fundamental questions
- why hasn’t an invasion already taken place?
- costs could be higher than benefit: it is difficult to take over the territory, don’t know who will join -> why would we fight
- are they willing to sacrifice?
- does Taiwan really want independence? -> China may be okay with status quo, but full independence China might not be okay with. - what lessons from Ukraine can inform our views of what a war over Taiwan would look like?
- could Taiwan last longer bc Ukraine was able to - although an invasion is not inevitable, what policy recommendations (to the EU, US, UN, Taiwan, etc.) would you propose to reduce the prospects?
how important have wars been to the people involved
war game - who are the participants?
- US
- Vietnam? bc if China wins, they might be next
- if US joins, Japan has to join (or vice versa) = Japan/US as joining powers
- North Korea prob not: have enough own problems
proff: experts say US, China army are important, but Japanese forces are crucial
war game -> random shit
what happens if there is a blockade? what would it actually look like -> how will the international actors react?
what limits will China and other participants place on the use of force?
- diff from Ukraine: nuclear use on sea thinkable, on land not thinkable
- why would you bomb your “own citizens”? Russia does it in Ukraine, might they do it in Taiwan (Taiwan is investing in bomb shelters etc.)
how will the conflict end?
- ceasefire
- peace treaty
- one side takes over
- what happens if China takes over -> does the communist party’s rule stop
war game - will the conflict be geograpically limited to the Taiwan Strait
= depends on who is involved
prof: if you’re Chinese leadership, you prevent reaction by Japan/US by attacking their bases, or do you question if they will enter the conflict in the first place?
!economic ties reduces probability of war, but it does not prevent it (see e.g. WW1)
yes, Taiwan small, China large, but winning is actually quite hard for China
