L7 - quantitative: hypothesis development Flashcards
Hypothesis development
Theory > hypothesis > observation > confirmation
Hypothesis vs proposition
Hypothesis: what is expected to occur, not why (= hypo development) > need to be tested (quantitative)
Propositions: involve concepts instead of measures (=hypo) > do not need to be tested (qualitative)
Association vs causation
Association: statistical relationship between X and Y (more likely)
Causation: exposure X changes Y (causes / strong association / precedes)
Criteria hypothesis > 6
- All hypotheses are related
- Concise
- Developed not asserted (based on literature review)
- No new key terms appear
- Logical arguments leads to EVERY hypothesis > references + past findings + chain of arguments + no empiricism (author X said so)
- Assemble in chart if possible
validity
VALIDITY: am I measuring what I intent to measure?
INTERNAL VALIDITY: am I really measuring the effect of X on Y? could there be a different explanation?
EXTERNAL VALIDITY: can I generalize my findings to other settings? (times, populations, places)
Spurious relationship
= relationship seems causally related, but are not due to unseen factor (Nicolas Cage)
Reverse causality
= relationship where Y causes changes X
Statistical generalization validity
to what extent is observed relationship correct estimate of target population? > NOT same as external validity. About sample representatives
inductive vs deductive
Inductive = Bottom up: BUILD theory = (sherlock) > mostly qualitative Deductive = Bottom down: TEST theory = > mostly quantitative
what theory is NOT
- References
- Data (data explain which patterns, theory WHY)
- List variables / constructs
- Diagrams / figures
- Hypotheses / predictions
what theory is
What is theory: convincing + logically interconnected arguments explain WHY
H0 VS H1
H0 = statement is false H1 = statement is true
“the cogs and wheels”
= necessary but of small importance
Stochastic
= involving chance or a random component = probabilistic
self-reinforcing:
if enough people believe something (bank = bankrupt) it will eventually happen (people withdraw money)
