Lecture 3A: Risk Assessment Flashcards
What are distal determinants of crime?
Historical factors
What are proximal determinants of crime?
Immediate and situational factors
How do we identify the factors that are most strongly associated with criminal behaviour?
use of meta-analysis
What is a correlate of crime and how do we discover them?
- A variable that is positively associated (correlated) with criminal behaviour.
- Discovered using cross-sectional research design.
When measured at the same time (number of criminal peers and involvement in crime), there is a strong association (e.g., r > .20)
What are the problems with correlates?
- Cannot infer causality
- Reverse causation, which came first? (criminal conduct or criminal peers).
- Some other factor may be the true causal factor (e.g., criminal thinking).
- BUT…a cost-effective starting point to test a research hypothesis
What is a risk factor (predictor)?
- A variable that precedes an outcome of interest and increases the probability that the outcome will occur (Kraemer et al., 1997)
- Discovered using longitudinal designs.
What are the problems with risk factors?
- Still cannot infer causality.
- Risk factors are typically correlated with other risk factors that also predict the outcome of interest.
- Maternal smoking during pregnancy is a risk factor for childhood conduct problems, BUT…
- But… not very important in criminal risk assessment.
What is a causal risk factor?
- the holy grail
- A risk factor that precedes criminal conduct and when changed/manipulated results in changes in the outcome of interest.
- Discovered using:
- Randomized controlled treatment designs (RCTs)
- Quasi-experimental designs (match controls and experimental groups)
- Propensity score matching
Why do we strive to identify causal factors?
-Explains crime and thus helpful for theory development and validation.
-Leads to effective intervention and (should) discourage
ineffective intervention.
What are the first and second-order correlates of criminal conduct?
- Andrews et al: Central Eight risk/need factors with embedded Big Four (major causal variables) - > 1000 studies; > 1770 Pearson r’s
- Minor, moderate and major risk factors
- Static and dynamic risk factors
- Assessment & treatment must attend to risk/need factors
What are the eight factors in the central eight?
- history of antisocial behaviour
- antisocial personality pattern
- antisocial cognition
- antisocial associates
- family and/or marital
- school and/or work
- leisure/recreation
- Substance use
What does the risk and need model of criminal conduct assist in?
- Provincial and federal corrections utilize risk and need assessments (versus psychopathology)
- Assist in identification of levels of criminal risk, treatment targets, treatment planning
What are some examples of risk assessment scales?
SIR-R1, SARA, VRAG
What are the 4 generations of risk assessment?
1st Generation: Unstructured professional judgment
2nd Generation: Actuarial, empirical, typically static factors
3rd Generation: Typically actuarial. Static AND dynamic factors
4th Generation: Comprehensive guide from intake to case closure. Assessment, management, treatment progress
What are the 3 approaches to risk assessment?
1) unstructured clinical judgement
2) actuarial tools (2nd to 4th generation)
3) structured professional judgement
What is unstructured clinical judgement?
Subjectively select, analyze, and interpret risk factors
What are the advantages and disadvantages of unstructured clinical judgement?
Advantages: Flexible, Idiographic
Disadvantages: Inconsistent, Low accuracy
What are actuarial tools?
Collect pre-specified risk factors and enter them into a statistical model that combines and weights them
What are the advantages/disadvantages of actuarial toold?
Advantages: Consistent, High accuracy, Often has recidivism estimates
Disadvantages: Nomothetic, Validity across different samples
What are some issues regarding actuarial scales?
- Items are statistically chosen and do not greatly inform treatment (mainly static items)
- Most items are equally relevant for general recidivism
- Few items are unique to violence
Where does SPJ fit into the generations?
Andrews, Bonta, & Wormith (2006)
-Variation of first generation
Quinsey, Rice, Harris, & Cormier (2006)
-“Actuarial methods are too good and clinical judgment too poor to risk contaminating the former with the latter”
-BUT, qualitatively and empirically different from unstructured judgment. SPJ likely fits somewhere within the 2nd and 3rd generation.
What are the more recent approaches to risk and need assessment?
- Improved domains (acute dynamic, mental health)
- Risk status (group) versus state (acute vs. stable factors)
- Longer follow-ups and larger samples
- Use of meta-analytic studies to show trends in the research
- Development of purpose-specific measures (SO, DV, gender-specific)
How do we understand risk ratings?
- (Nominal Categories – L, M, H)
- No agreement regarding what these categories mean.
- Base rates vary by type of outcome (general recidivism, violence, sexual, technical violations).
What is Hanson et al., emerging model for risk communication?
- Very low (equivalent to young males in community)
Circumstantial crime, no overt criminogenic needs. - Low (½ the BR of the moderate group)
Transient criminogenic needs, problem solving issues, not criminal lifestyle. - Moderate (average BR on risk scale used)
Multiple needs, requires structure programming (~200 hours). Months to get to Level 2. - Moderate-high (twice the BR)
Chronic with multiple severe needs, requires multiple programs (~300 hours). Years to get to level 3. - Extremely High (~80-85% failure rate on risk scale)
Persistent, active criminal (in and out of prison), requires motivational change prior to other programming.
