Lectures Flashcards
(131 cards)
Three major points of political science
Discovery of GENERAL laws about politics
Asking questions about the real world, answers are hypothesis’
Empirical: Test these hypotheses with data
Difference between Positive vs. normative theories
Positive: “what is”
◦ What are the causes of civil war
◦ Why do people vote the way they do
Normative: “what ought to be”
◦ Why we need Medicare for All
◦ How high taxes should be
Karl Popper and the black swans
He argued that for a theory to be scientific, it must be testable and able to be proven false.
Both Popper’s ideas and the notion of black swans highlight the limitations of knowledge and our tendency to overlook rare but consequential events.
Inductive vs. deductive reasoning
Inductive: Sherlock, start with data and do qualitative research
Deductive: Aristotle, start with a theory and do quantitative research
What are the 3 methods of analysis
Qualitative: observation, interviews, ethnography
Quantitative: frequentist statistics, Bayesian statistics, formal modeling / rational choice
Experimental: Randomized controlled trials, “Natural” experiments
a hypothesis should be…
Empirical: can be tested by data
Falsifiable: can be proven wrong
Positive, not normative: describes what is, not what ought to be
Parsimonious: simpler explanations are better than complicated ones
Generalizable: conclusion can be applied to other cases (people, countries, organizations, etc)
Explanatory: describes how X causes Y (causal mechanism)
Transmissible: others can analyze and replicate findings and come to same conclusion
Predictable: conclusion produces general rule that allows you to predict the future
Problems with political science research in practice:
◦ Survey responses
◦ Hawthorne Effect
◦ Social psychology replication crisis
◦ how to measure things like belief, feelings
◦ Likert scales
◦ 1-10
◦ Strongly agree / agree / neutral / disagree / strongly disagree
Falsification:
hypothesis that looks to prove something wrong
What are the 4 things you need to do to conduct political science research
Theory: your tentative idea about what causes what in the world
Hypothesis: statement of what you expect you will observe in the real world, if your theory is correct
Null hypothesis: what you would observe if your theory is incorrect
Hypothesis testing: systematically, empirically evaluate evidence, see if it favors the hypothesis or the null
Paradigm shift: new knowledge/Updated theory
The Independent variable is..
(X): the cause
The Dependent variable…
(Y): the outcome
Describe the three major periods of the development of modern political science
Traditional approaches (early 20th century): mostly descriptive, how government works
Social theory (mid-20th Century): turn away from description and normative theories toward empiricism: testing theories, looking for patterns, creating general rules
Behavioralism (mid-20th Century): study of individual/group political behavior
Post-behavioralism: focus more on issues with politcy making and implementation
Describe the Structural-functionalists (1960s)
Makes generalized decisions that technically can be right, but doesn’t mean its always right and thus, is wrong
Ex. Modernization Theory: as states become richer, they become more secular and democratic
Describe Constructivism
Constructivism in political science is a theoretical approach that emphasizes the importance of social constructs, identities, and norms in shaping political behavior and outcomes. Ex: liberal vs conservative, black vs white
Challenge to realism: state-based, anarchic world system
Describe Rational choice theory
individuals make decisions based on a systematic evaluation of the costs and benefits of various options, aiming to maximize their utility.
Its a structured approach to understanding political behavior, emphasizing the calculated nature of human decision-making in the political sphere.
Formal modeling:
mathematical (later computer) models to predict behavior and events
Describe Arrow’s impossibility theorem
no voting system can result in the best, most fair outcome for all. This result has profound implications for democratic voting and two party systems.
Median voter theorem:
majority rule voting system with result in outcome preferred by the median voter
What is the difference between a hypothesis, theory, and law?
theory (predict/explains/organizes GENERAL phenomena)
hypothesis (can test with data, causal, predictive)
Law (general like a theory but has served every empirical verification thus far, not found in polisci)
A hypothesis should:
Be an empirical statement aka: evidenced based (positive, not normative)
Be causal: describe a relationship and what variables cause what
Be testable (if I see this then right/wrong) and falsifiable: (open to the possibility of being wrong) could be wrong
Specify unit of analysis (individual, country, etc) and keep units consistent (avoid ecological fallacy)
Be specific (about what types of cases you are describing) but also generalizable (could lead to a theory)
What is the null hypothesis for this hypothesis: “If democratic peace theory is true, I expect that as a country becomes more democratic, it will go to war less often.”
If democratic peace theory is not true, I expect that a country becoming more democratic has no effect on how often it goes to war. (AKA: HYPOTHESIS IF THERE IS NO RELATION)
What is the unit of analysis, variable, casual mechanism, and measurement of this hypothesis: “If democratic peace theory is true, I expect that as a country becomes more democratic, it will go to war less often.”
Unit of analysis: countries
Variables: democratization (independent), war/peace (dependent)
Causal mechanism: democratization 🡪 peaceful behavior (because…)
Measurement: how democratic a country is (Freedom House, Polity scores), frequency or intensity of war
How do you know if a hypothesis is too narrow
because (avoid because because its too casual)
Make the following sentence more GENERALIZABLE: The United States is a democracy because its population is affluent.
Countries with high levels of affluence are more likely to be democracies.
