Long Exam 1

Question 1

Decisions that are made in accordance with some habit, rule, or procedure

Answer 1

Programmed Decisions

Question 2

Decisions that deal with unusual or exceptional problems

Answer 2

Non-programmed Decisions

Question 3

a scientific approach to managerial decision-making whereby raw data are processed and manipulated resulting in meaningful information.

Answer 3

Quantitative Analysis Approach

Question 4

It refers to the process by which a course of action is selected as the way to deal with a specific problem.

Answer 4

Decision-making

Question 5

It refers to the broad set of activities involved in finding and implementing a course of action to correct an unsatisfactory situation.

Answer 5

Problem solving

Question 6

In the quantitative analysis approach, this step is the most difficult.

Answer 6

Step 1- Define the problem

Question 7

Scale models and physical replicas are examples of what type of model?

Answer 7

Physical/Iconic Model

Question 8

Physical in form but not the same physical appearance as the object being modelled.

Answer 8

Analog Model

Question 9

Mathematical models that do not involve risk and values are known with certainty.

Answer 9

Detriministic Models

Question 10

It is a model that involves risk, chance, or uncertainty and values are estimated based on probabilities.

Answer 10

Probabilistic Model

Question 11

Known quantities that are part of the problem

Answer 11

Parameters

Question 12

Decision and unknown variables are examples of?

Answer 12

Controllable Variables

Question 13

This rule implies that input data must be accurate

Answer 13

GIGO rule- Garbage In Garbage Out

Question 14

It is the step wherein the solution is incorporated into the company

Answer 14

Step 7- Implementing the Results

Question 15

Revenue Less Expenses

Answer 15

Profit

Question 16

Fixed Cost/Price-Variable Cost

Answer 16

Break-even Quantity

Question 17

The process of projecting the values of one or more variables into the future

Answer 17

Forecasting

Question 18

Poor inventory and staffing decisions implies?

Answer 18

Poor forecasting

Question 19

It is the length of time in which a forecast is based

Answer 19

Planning Horizon

Question 20

Planning Horizon for 1 to 10 years

Answer 20

Long-term

Question 21

Planning Horizon for 3 to 12 month

Answer 21

Intermediate

Question 22

Planning Horizon for 1 up to 3 months is called

Answer 22

Short-term

Question 23

Unit of measure for the time period used in a forecast

Answer 23

Time-bucket

Question 24

A forecasting technique that includes expert opinions

Answer 24

Qualitative Method

Question 25

A forecasting technique that uses past record and/or historical data as basis for forecasting

Answer 25

Time-series Method

Question 26

A forecasting technique that attempts to find the relationship between the variable to be forecasted and/or one or more variables

Answer 26

Causal Method

Question 27

The most common technique in Causal Methods

Answer 27

Regression analysis (a set of statistical methods used for the estimation of relationships between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.)

Question 28

The difference between the observed value of the time series and the forecast

Answer 28

Forecast Error

Question 29

A way to evaluate forecasts that gives equal rate weight to each error and is calculated as the average sum of the absolute deviations for al forecast errors.

Answer 29

MAD (mean absolute deviation)

Question 30

A way to evaluate forecasts that gives more weight to large errors because they are squared and is calculated as the percentage error for each forecast value.

Answer 30

MAPE (mean absolute percentage error)

Question 31

A way to evaluate forecasts that is calculated by squaring the individual forecast errors and averaging all T periods of data in the time series.

Answer 31

MSE (mean square error)

Question 32

What should a decision-maker do to determine when it might be advantageous to change or update the model?

Answer 32

Monitor and Control Forecast

Question 33

It provides a method for monitoring forecast by quantifying BIAS

Answer 33

Tracking Signal

Question 34

Set of observations measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time.

Answer 34

Time-series

Question 35

It is an illustration that shows the relationship between two variables or data.

Answer 35

Scatter diagram

Question 36

Underlying pattern of growth or decline in time series. It is also gradual upward or downward movement of the data over time.

Answer 36

Trend

Question 37

Characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

Answer 37

Seasonal patterns

Question 38

The pattern of demand fluctuations above or below the trend line that repeats at regular intervals.

Answer 38

Seasonality

Question 39

The regular patterns in a data series that take place over long periods of time.

Answer 39

Cyclical Patterns

Question 40

The patterns in annual data that occur every several years.

Answer 40

Cycles

Question 41

Sometimes called noise. It is the unexplained deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Answer 41

Random Variation

Question 42

It is a one-time variation that is explainable. For example, a hurricane can case a surge in demand for building materials, food, and water.

Answer 42

Irregular Variations

Question 43

The simplest technique in forecasting that uses actual demand for the past periods as the forecasted demand for the next period.

Answer 43

Naive Model

Question 44

A forecasting technique that uses the average of the most recent data values from the time series.

Answer 44

Moving Average

Question 45

The two types of moving average

Answer 45

Weighted and Unweighted

Question 46

The type of moving average that is simple and all data for periods is given equal rights.

Answer 46

Unweighted Moving Averages

Question 47

The type of moving average that use weights to put more emphasis on recent periods.

Answer 47

Weighted Moving Averages

Question 48

It is a robust forecasting technique that adjusts forecasts according to errors and performs well in many different kinds of time series.

Answer 48

Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES)

Question 49

The set of sample for the forecaster to "feel" the data/trend.

Answer 49

Warm-up Sample

Question 50

A sample that is used to test the model and is used in error calculations.

Answer 50

Forecasting Sample

Question 51

A forecasting technique that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line to the future for medium to long-range forecasts.

Answer 51

Linear Trend Projection

Question 52

It is simply a linear progression equation in which the independent variable(x) is the time period.

Answer 52

Trend Line

Question 53

Two useful tools we can use in computers for forecasting

Answer 53

Excel QM and Solver

Question 54

It tells us how our forecasting methods are performing and enables us to improve performance over time.

Answer 54

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

Question 55

The difference between actual demand and the forecast for a given period.

Answer 55

Forecast Error

Question 56

The average sum of the absolute errors

Answer 56

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Question 57

The average of the squared error

Answer 57

Mean Square Error (MSE)

Question 58

Bias is also known as

Answer 58

Mean Forecast Error (MFE)

Question 59

A forecast error measure that indicates on an average basis, whether the forecast is too high or too low.

Answer 59

BIAS

Question 60

A forecast error measure that indicates on an average basis, how many units the forecast is off from the actual data.

Answer 60

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Question 61

A forecast error measure that penalizes large errors proportionally more than small errors.

Answer 61

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Question 62

A forecast error measure that indicates on an average basis, how may percent the forecast is off from the actual data.

Answer 62

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)

Question 63

A type of forecast that address business cycle like inflation rate and money supply

Answer 63

Economic Forecast

Question 64

A type of forecast that predict the rate of technological progress and impacts of the development of new products.

Answer 64

Technological Forecast

Question 65

A type of forecast that predict sales of existing products and services.

Answer 65

Demand Forecast