Mental Models Flashcards
(20 cards)
First Principles Thinking
Break down problems to fundamental truths; reason up from there.
Example: Instead of copying competitor features, the team used First Principles to define the absolute core user need.
Second-Order Thinking
Consider the consequences of the consequences.
Example: Before adding a required login, they considered the second-order effect of increased user frustration and bounce rate.
Pareto Principle (80/20)
Roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes.
Example: Analysis showed 80% of conversions came from 20% of ad groups, prompting budget reallocation.
Inversion
Approach problems by considering the opposite or how to fail.
Example: To improve user retention, the team asked ‘What would guarantee churn?’ and then eliminated those factors.
Occam’s Razor
Simpler explanations (fewer assumptions) are more likely true.
Example: A sudden drop in leads was attributed to a broken form (Occam’s Razor) before assuming market shifts.
Hanlon’s Razor
Don’t attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence.
Example: Hanlon’s Razor suggested the agency’s poor ad targeting was likely a mistake, not intentional sabotage.
Circle of Competence
Know the limits of your own expertise and stay within them.
Example: The marketer focused on campaign strategy, leaving complex tracking implementation to a developer (Circle of Competence).
Probabilistic Thinking
Think in terms of likelihoods and probabilities, not certainties.
Example: The A/B test report stated a 70% probability of the new headline increasing CTR, avoiding false certainty.
Systems Thinking
Understand how interconnected parts influence each other over time.
Example: Using Systems Thinking, they saw how changing the navigation impacted user flow, time on site, and support tickets.
Leverage
Achieve maximum output/impact from minimal input/effort.
Example: Creating one pillar content piece and repurposing it across channels provided high Leverage for the marketing team.
Feedback Loops
System outputs loop back to influence future inputs (can amplify or stabilize).
Example: Positive reviews (output) boosted SEO ranking, attracting more customers (input), creating a reinforcing Feedback Loop.
Bottlenecks
Constraints that limit the overall throughput or performance of a system.
Example: The slow legal review process was identified as the key Bottleneck delaying content publication.
Margin of Safety
Build a buffer or cushion against errors, uncertainty, or bad luck.
Example: A Margin of Safety was added to the campaign budget to handle unexpected ad cost fluctuations.
Opportunity Cost
The value of the best alternative you give up when making a choice.
Example: Investing time in feature A meant accepting the Opportunity Cost of not improving existing feature B.
Confirmation Bias
Tendency to favor information confirming your existing beliefs.
Example: To counter Confirmation Bias, the analyst actively searched for data points that challenged their preferred hypothesis.
Availability Heuristic
Overestimating importance of information that comes easily to mind.
Example: Due to the Availability Heuristic, a single recent negative tweet was given undue weight in product roadmap discussions.
Social Proof
Tendency to assume others’ actions reflect correct behavior.
Example: Displaying customer logos and testimonials on the landing page leverages Social Proof to increase conversions.
Network Effects
A product/service becomes more valuable as more people use it.
Example: The community forum became more valuable via Network Effects as more users joined and contributed answers.
Antifragility
Things that gain from disorder, stress, or volatility.
Example: Running many small, parallel ad experiments made the overall strategy Antifragile, benefiting from diverse outcomes.
Via Negativa
Improving by removal (subtracting negatives) rather than adding.
Example: The landing page conversion rate improved via Via Negativa when distracting elements were removed.
