Midterm

Question 1

Based on research, which type of judgment has generally been shown to be more accurate?

Answer 1

Actuarial

Question 2

What is an example of an Actuarial approach to judgement?

Answer 2

The Goldberg Rule

Question 3

In general, when looking at the relationship between the accuracy of human judgment and humans confidence that their judgments are correct, we most often observe…

Answer 3

Over Confidence

Question 4

The probabilistic mental model approach to understanding decision making suggests that we use_____ to make judgments

Answer 4

One single cue that differentiates from our alternatives

Question 5

In the Lens model, the lines from the criterion to cue’s represent

Answer 5

Ecological validities (how well a cue predicts an outcome)

Question 6

A predictive linear model determines the weights for each cue… 

Answer 6

From past human behavioral data

Question 7

What is a cue judgment?


Answer 7

Information that can be used to differentiate between two or more outcomes 

Question 8

To make an actuarial judgment, using a linear model, more accurate, you could…..


Answer 8

Add more cues to the model


Question 9

In the probabilistic mental models approach to understanding decision-making, people use ______to discriminate between options 

Answer 9

Cues

Question 10

Heuristics, like recognition or take the best, are often used for judgment, rather than actuarial approach, because


Answer 10

They provide a good trade off between effort and accuracy

Question 11

Which method of a decision would be an example of system one thinking? 

Answer 11

The availability heuristic

Question 12

When asked about the likelihood of passing her next test, Syria felt it was unlikely because she did poorly on her last test, despite the fact that she has a 3.5 GPA. What heuristic is she using to make her judgment?

Answer 12

Availability

Question 13

Research has shown that one judging the probability, an implicit disjunction, they will underestimate the probability of an event compared to when it is presented as an explicit disjunction. What is this affect called?

Answer 13

Subadditvity?

Question 14

Athletes, for example, basketball players, often believe in something, called the “hot hand “affect, where they go on streaks where they are most likely to make the next several shots because they have made the last several. There is no statistical evidence for the hot hand players will play to their skill level, overtime, and the distribution of success in between is not casual. What heuristic do you think could be used to explain why athletes often believe this?

Answer 14

Representativeness 

Question 15

One effective method, for reducing the conjunction bias is….

Answer 15

Both cues for extensionality and encouraging system 2 thinking help

Question 16

When, judging the probability of an outcome, say the likelihood you have Covid, people tend to ignore how rare is the condition is in focused and said on the evidence. This leads to inflated estimates for rare, unlikely outcomes. This is because people are ignoring the…….

Answer 16

Base rate of the event

Question 17

Irrational, system to method of determining the probability of any outcome is

Answer 17

Bayes theorem 

Question 18

In general, research has found that hindsight bias is greater when….

Answer 18

The outcome of an event is negative

Question 19

Smith & Marshall (2016) demonstrated that anchors do what in judgment?

Answer 19

Increase our confidence that we are correct 

Question 20

The tendency for people to assume that their personal qualities, characteristics, beliefs, and actions are relatively widespread and shared in the general population has been called

Answer 20

The false, consensus bias

Question 21

Thomas believes that dogs are more friendly than cats. When someone on the Internet challenge his assumption, he did a Google search for information to support his hypothesis and concluded he was right all along. What bias did Thomas fall? Pray to?

Answer 21

Confirmation bias

Question 22

Who are the researchers associated with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?

Answer 22

Tversky & Kahneman

Question 23

In which situation are you most likely to observe the anchoring in adjustment affect?

Answer 23

When deciding how much to pay for a car after the dealer gives you they’re selling price


Question 24

According to the elaboration likelihood model, if someone was influenced by the attractiveness of a speaker, they were in which row to persuasion?

Answer 24

Peripheral

Question 25

Also, according to the ELM, if you engage a listener in the_____ route, an attitude changes, that change is more likely to be a long lasting and enduring

Answer 25

Central

Question 26

The explanation based decision making model by Pennington and Hastie suggests that persuasive arguments……

Answer 26

Tell their fax in a cohesive story

Question 27

In the 1988 study by Pennington and Hosti, they found that presenting an argument to a mock jury in the form of a story…..

Answer 27

Increase the strength of the verdict

Question 28

Makian worth found which pattern of results, supporting the elaboration, likelihood, model, and their factorial study on persuasion to be true?

Answer 28

When people likely to be in a peripheral route, there was no difference an attitude change between a strong in a week argument

Question 29

Functional theory suggest that counter factual thoughts are….

Answer 29

Positive for behavioral change

Question 30

Counter, fractional reasoning, has been found to be more likely to occur if

Answer 30

The outcome wasn’t as positive as expected 

Question 31

In the study by Roses ( 1994) on students who had just done poorly on a exam, which group were more likely to change their behavior for the next exam?

Answer 31

Upward counter-factional thinkers