Mitigation Exam Flashcards
(122 cards)
1
Q
What is climate change mitigation?
A
Climate change mitigation = practical action to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere
- to prevent global temperature increase
- & its consequent impacts
Mitigation and adaptation go hand-in-hand to address the issue of climate change
2
Q
Why is climate change the biggest challenge ever faced?
A
Board impacts:
- uncertain in form and extent;
- Gradual and insidious onset rather than directly confrontational;
- Long term threat rather than immediate
Broad in remedies; Effective remedies are beyond the scope of anyone nation; requires international co-operation of unprecedented dimension and complexity
But it requires action NOW
3
Q
How do we justify and measure mitigation (4)?
A
“The benefits of a certain level of mitigation must outweigh the costs of that level of mitigation”
Avoided climate impacts = benefits
- Currently measurable market impacts – GDP/consumption (post flood repairs)
- Market impacts not readily measurable – e.g. impact ecosystem change on tourism
- Insurance value against high damages – naturally risk averse to events potential catastrophe defence damage
- Non-market impacts – e.g. damage to landmarks, barrier reef, loss of species
4
Q
How do you value the future relative to the present?
A
Utilities across generations is measured by a discount rate – the higher, the less the future utility counts today.
Typically between 3-5%
Ethically = 0 – equal standing.
Marginal elasticity of utility = wealthier people value differently; assume we will be wealthier = > 0
5
Q
What does the task of global mitigation entail? (4)
A
- Limit the negative impacts of CC (prevent dangerous impacts)
- Limit rise in global temperature (2degree pre-industrial)
- Stabilize concentrations of GHG in atmosphere (450ppm)
- Reduce GHG into atmosphere (halve by 2050)
6
Q
How are we doing in terms of likelihood of temperature rise? Pathways?
A
Parts per million (degrees)
450: 1.5 = more unlikely; 2 = likely; 3 = likely
500: 1.5 = unlikely; 2 = more likely; 3= likely
500 overshoot: 1.5 = unlikely; 2= about as likely; 3 = likely
(In all ppm scenarios likely under 3, but 1.5 unlikely in all. 2 degrees is only likely in the first scenario and maybe 500ppm).
Cumulative budget (staying below GT CO2 left)
1.5 degrees; 66% = 400; 50% = 550; 33% = 850
2 degrees; 66% = 1000 left; 50% =1300; 33% = 1500;
3 degrees: 66% = 2400; 50% = 2800; 33% = 3250
1000 GTC02 is the key figure for staying 66% of staying under 2 degrees – window for 2 degrees rapidly closing as we use up our remaining cumulative budget.
7
Q
How are we doing on our current carbon budget?
A
150 already emitted in 2011- 2015 +
100 expected deforestation & land use +
150 (process emissions from cement etc. 2015-2100)
Leaves 600 (if taking 1000) .
Average annual rate of emissions = 35 gt/yr = leaves 17 years.
Assuming we are constant – but we are not, we’re increasing.
8
Q
How can stabilization be achieved?
A
Key concept: probability of a certain pathway resulting in temperature rise.
Multiple pathways to same goal; trade-off between emissions peak (delayed action) and rate of reduction thereafter; limiting peak atmospheric concentrations – danger of overshooting.
Cumulative emissions also matter.
9
Q
What is the current pathway we are on?
A
Contributions so far = no way near – increased.
Pledges = 2.4 -2.7 – exceed warming limit of Paris agreement.
Current policies = 3.3 – 5.4
10
Q
What does the emissions division look like globally/historically?
A
Question of equity – how do we decide and make it fair? Who’s emitting most
- Historically: US (26%); EU (23%) China (11%) and India (4%) = 64% total
- Now: China, US, EU, India, Russia, Japan.
- But impacts not experienced equally – some of the most affected are the lowest emitters
11
Q
What is climate justice & its underlying principles?
A
Common but differentiated responsibilities in light of respective capabilities
Developed countries = largest share of historical and current
Developing countries need to adapt too; but need to develop to adapt and that’s highly linked to emissions = ‘right to emit’.
Developing countries emissions per capita are relatively low => will grow to meet their needs = UNFCCC.
Underlying principles for climate justice:
- equality (same right to atmosphere resource);
- historic responsibility (polluter pays)
- capacity to pay.
12
Q
Equitable/Burden sharing principles/options? (6)
A
Index Based Approach (historical responsibility)
Common but differentiated convergence (equal emissions & historical)
Contraction/convergence (most popular – equal emissions)
Carbon Budget Approach (equal emissions)
Cost prop. to GDP/capita (capacity to pay)
Income Classification (capacity to pay)
13
Q
Carbon Budget Approach
A
Proportion of global carbon budget allocated on basis of population
(equal emissions)
14
Q
Index Based Approach
A
Share of mitigation determined by share of historical emissions
(historical responsibility)
15
Q
Contraction/convergence
A
Country emissions follow a pathway where they contract to converge on the same emissions per capita by a specified date
(equal emissions)
16
Q
Common but differentiated convergence
A
Countries further differentiated on their level of economic development. Countries below per capita threshold can carry on with BaU.
(equal emissions & historical)
17
Q
Cost prop. to GDP/capita
A
Targets set based on equal mitigation costs as a percentage of GDP
(capacity to pay)
18
Q
Income Classification approach
A
Targets set based on mitigation costs as a percentage of GDP but higher % for wealthier countries
(capacity to pay)
19
Q
Approach taken by the UNFCCC in terms of burden sharing?
A
Differentiation by:
Annex I (developed); Non- Annex (developing); Least developed & small island states (lack capability to adapt and likely impacted severely)
Annex I meant to take the lead with specific mitigation targets and timelines & expected to provide funding and resources (tech transfer to developing)
20
Q
Breakdown of GHG emissions?
A
65% = CO2; 16% = CH4; 11% = CO2 FOLU (afforestation and land use); 6.2% = N20 2% = HFC; PFC, SF6
21
Q
Breakdown of where emissions are coming from (Sectors) & Indirect/Direct?
A
Total: AFOLU = 24%; Industry = 18%; Indirect Industry = 10.6%; Indirect Buildings = 12%; Road = 10.6%
75% = Direct Emissions: arise from the combustion of fuels during activity (exhaust of petrol car)
25% = Indirect Emissions: those associated with the production of electricity/hydrogen
22
Q
Where do the GHG come from?
A
Primarily an energy problem!
Majority comes from burning fossil fuel for energy
77% of CO2 comes from electricity & heat, industry and transportation.
23
Q
Achieving Mitigation Aims as set out by Paris Agreement & technologies?
A
Currently emitting 628 MTCO2e
2050: 160 MTCO2e
=75% cut
The sectoral overview of emissions means we can’t do everything in one sector – nor leave any behind – has to be cross economy and 3-4% reduction year after year; with wide range of technologies.
Reductions by tech:
38% = Energy Use and fuel efficiency 30% = Renewables 13% = CCS 10% = End use fuel switching 8% = Nuclear
24
Q
What are the drivers of energy demand & equation?
A
1) Population growth; 2) GDP growth (total & per capita)
= main drivers of CO2.
CO2 emissions = PopIncomeEnergy Intensity * CO2 Intensity
CO2 emissions = Pop * (GDP/POP) * (ENERGY/GDP) * (CO2/ENERGY)
25
How can we decouple CO2 Emissions from Growth?
Dealing with the two terms of CO2 emissions:
Energy intensity (demand side) and CO2 intensity (supply side)
1) Energy efficiency (demand side) = energy intensity improvement to the demand side: reducing overall energy demand; behavioural change (tech w/o fossil)
2) CO2 intensity (supply side): Fuel switching (to clean fossil fuel = inc. CCS); renewables (solar & wind particularly), Nuclear
26
What does the global energy system look like? Primary source to end use?
Different uses for energy making up the energy system.
5 Primary sources:
coal, oil, gas, renewables, nuclear
3 Transformation processes: Electricity (services all) heating fuels (only heat), transport fuels (only transport)
4 Energy Services = Lighting, Electrical Appliances, Heat and Transport.
Converting coal and natural gas into electricity has substantial conversion losses – (it’s the thermal efficiency of coal power stations =1/4 loss; converting chemical energy is not very efficient.
27
Global demand for primary energy?
From the first car, energy and oil consumption has risen dramatically. Today, 80% of primary energy = fossil fuels.
28
Electricity Supply Generation?
How to decarbonize?
41% coal; 22% gas; 11% nuclear; 16% hydro; 4% oil; 3% wind; 2% biomass; 1% solar PV
- Need more efficient coal fired power
- Switching from coal to natural gas & biomass (or co-firing)
- CCS + Nuclear + Renewables + energy storage & intermittency
29
Coal
41% of electricity supply: The most abundant fossil fuel & cheap. 1 trillion tons proven reserve; 150 years at current consumption rates. Demand fell first time in 2015.
= 29% of energy demand (2nd to oil = 31%)
30
Simplified Efficiency Calculation?
Ratio of in vs. out = Efficiency (n) of planet = electricity produced/energy input
= Look at this calculation
31
Meeting a 2 degree pathway with coal?
Requires early decommissioning of coal – all need to be ultra-super critical + CCS
Difficult as most plants already paid off and now provide steady revenue stream – need to be forced.
32
Shale Gas (Fracking) impact?
Shale gas boom resulted in a glut of supply and drove down natural gas prices, difficult for non-gas power generation technologies to compete, largely resulted in displacement of coal (through early retirement of coal-fired power stations) – natural gas could have replaced renewables, but didn’t due to policy.
33
Role of natural gas-fired generation in future?
Advancement CCGT => boom in natural gas generation with the share in OECD countries of 15%. This saved emissions of ~1 Gt/per annum compared to if this electricity had come from coal.
2 roles (transition fuel):
1. displacing emissions intensive coal-fired power stations 2. complementing renewables by providing flexibility.
Danger of capital lock-in: need to be able to be retrofitted with CCS.
34
Why is CCS challenging/costly?
Capturing from power plant is difficult because we burn fuel in air (78% nitrogen) – separating CO2 from nitrogen is not easy (i.e. it’s expensive) = 82% of costs; 7% transport; 11% storage.
Costs are still very high (far right on marginal abatement cost curve) can do individual processes...
- demonstrate at scale + how operate as a system (integration)
- upfront capital is so high, that this is where we stumble.
35
Role of Nuclear?
- Nuclear supplied ~13% of electricity + only large scale source of low carbon electricity in many places. Esp. w/o large scale hydro
- Cost of mitigation greatly increased without: 2 degree scenario 10-35% cheaper than with phase-out
ETP (energy technology perspective) projects 16% nuclear in 2050 in their 2 degrees.
= weigh risks of disaster against risks of CC.
Issues: Safety and Controversy, waste (storage sites); high up front capital - gov guarantee price
36
Non Electricity Supply Technologies?
Hydrogen = potential to play a role across all end-use appliances.
Fuel EV; replace Natural Gas for heating & cooking; low carbon production steel; planes; energy storage.
But hydrogen low carbon production is not easy:
1. Need CCS +
To be widespread:
2. infrastructure - requires transport distribution networks
3. demand-side equipment redesigned (retrofitting/replacing boilers/cookers).
37
What are the qualities of electricity?
Flow of electrons driven by a potential difference (voltage).
Must be used as it is created (unlike eg. gas). Can only be stored in specifically designed devices, can be use directly off grid. Usually measured in KWh.
Transmitted (long distance, high voltage 400kV) & Distributed (smaller scale, lower voltage 230V – 132kv) - through grid system.
Direct current= always one direction = solar PV
Alternating current (switches rapidly) = national grid = AC + some forms of electricity generation generate in AC directly (usually those involving rotation, eg. conventional thermal) – most electrical appliances.
Requires inverter between – adds cost & loses efficiency
38
What are the renewable energies and trends/deployment?
Global = 19% global energy consumption.
Hydro (16%); Wind (4) Bio (2) Solar PV (1.2) Geothermal (0.4)
Timing matters - 2030 vs. 2020 - double.
The costs of electrical energy generation from renewables approaching fossil many regions.
Ensuring continued levels of deployment = managing variability of supply.
39
What is grid parity?
Same cost as grid power per unit of electricity.
40
Comparing the electricity generation technologies (between all)?
Useful metrics to compare:
```
Output = capacity factor
Reliability of supply = capacity credit
LOCE = cost (operating cost)
Emissions intensity = emissions intensity
Land Use
```
41
What is the capacity factor?
Ratio quantifies typical output of generating source over given time period.
Capacity factor = actual energy produced/energy produced if 100% running
UK: Nuclear 1 = 75%; Bio 2=68%; Hydro 3: 41%; Coal 4: 39%; Wind: 34%; CCGT; Solar 12%; Marine 3%
Not 100% all the time due to:
- planned/unplanned maintenance;
- intentional ramping up/down supply to meet demand/respond to economics of generation at price;
- unavailability of fuel (wind/sunlight)
42
What is the capacity credit?
Reliability = amount of output statistically relied upon at peak demand.
Expressed as: Peak demand - peak residual demand = % of variable renewables installed
CC peak = reduction in capacity conventional plants/capacity variable plants
43
What is the levelized cost of electricity?
Cost of generation.
- LCOE = NPV cost of a generating asset per unit of electricity generated over its lifetime.
- Quite a few renewables are competitive with fossil: hydro, biomass, geothermal, wind onshore, solar, wind offshore.
44
What is emissions intensity?
Total quantity of greenhouse gases emitted by tech over entire life / divided by total energy produced over life
Coal = 101; Natural Gas = 469; Solar PV = 46; Geothermal = 45; CSP = 22; Biomass = 18; Nuclear = 16; Onshore = 12; Hydro = 4
Natural gas half of coal
45
Land Use as a metric?
In 2050 80 reduction scenario UK:
1) Bio 2) Onshore 3) Offshore 4) Hydro 5) Solar
46
What is intermittency in supply and variability in demand?
Times of peak demand do not match times of peak supply - intermittent and variable over various:
Temporal timescales: longer term outages – daily vs. seasonal - (we’re getting better at weather forecasts but still)
Spatial timescales: Also dependent on grid connectedness or off-grid
47
What services/technologies do the electricity system require to deal with intermittency?
Methods for balancing electricity supply to meet demand?
Frequency response, daily peak shifting/arbitrage, longer term/seasonal
Demand side management, increased interconnectivity, energy storage, flexible/dispatchable generation
48
What is the system margin?
The amount by which the total installed capacity of all the generating plants on the system exceeds the anticipated peak demand
49
What are the 2 categories of impacts from introducing lots of renewables?
Two main categories of impacts:
1. System balancing: rapid short term adjustments needed to manage fluctuations over the time period from minutes to hours.
2. Reliability Impacts relates to the extent to which we can be confident that sufficient generation will be available to meet peak demands.
50
What is Frequency Response?
Category of systems balancing - the frequency of alternating current on the grid will drop in response to a sudden fall in generation or increase in demand.
“Frequency response” reserves required to ensure frequency stays within acceptable limits. Three categories that provides power or reduces demand:
1. Enhanced Frequency Response – within 1 sec + 9 sec
2. Primary Frequency Response – within 10 sec + 20 sec
3. Secondary Frequency Response – within 30 sec + 30 min
51
What is Loss of Load Probability & Capacity Credit?
Given no 100% reliable. The risk of demand being unmet can be characterised statistically (VaR) and the measure commonly used to quantify this risk is called Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) = requirement that this is kept small.
Variable generation increases LOLP for the same total generating capacity.
Capacity credit = amount of capacity reserve required/capacity credit to keep LOLP the same as using purely thermal; varies by country and technology.
- In UK: wind = ~20%; (gives 20% of capacity on coldest, darkest evening in winter with greatest demand); Solar = 0%.
52
How does Europe deal with intermittency issues in designing energy systems?
Meeting demand: build more than needed, sizing system to meet peak demand + 20% (online & reserve) = fossil great.
Gas turbines/diesel engines are cheap to build (although expensive to run) = economical for meeting infrequent peak demands + controllable & flexible = essential for keeping system in balance.
Adding renewables => oversizing across Europe’s electricity markets as intermittency worry – not displacing fossils. All have at least 120% relative to demand; then as add renewables, total capacity goes up, pretty much 1:1. Countries rise from having 125% with no renewables, to 250% when big enough to meet peak demand = completely double asset base – great for environment, not cheap.
53
Cost of intermittency?
Aggregate ‘costs of intermittency’ =
- short-run balancing costs +
- longer term costs associated with maintaining reliability via an adequate system margin
54
How does interconnectivity help with intermittency?
Making use of differences in supply & demand between regions. In the states – possible to bring CO2 down by 80% by increasing interconnectivity without storage and w/o increasing LCOE.
55
Demand Side Management to manage intermittency?
Modifying consumer demand for energy through various methods such as financial incentives and behavioural change through education – how best to do remains challenging.
- Encourage less use during peak hours, move to off-peak times to reduce peak demand (to night-time/weekends) – applies to both industry (range of processes) and consumers.
- Or tariffs – charging less for nightime vs. daytime – but we need smart meters (today only totals instead of timings).
- Industry you can price electricity more accurately – spot pricing (cost of generation at that time).
- Domestic shifting – inflexible: cooking, computing, electronics, light; flexible: washing/drying/space heating.
56
Different ways to categorise energy storage? (4)
Mode of storage = 1. mechanical, 2. electrochemical, 3. Electromagnetic, 4. thermal
1) Speed of response – milliseconds, seconds, minutes
2) Relevant Scale (off grid, mini grid, grid scale)
3) Power/energy – high power (short period) or high energy (longer periods)
4) Power/energy density – transport EV – need a lot of power and energy not heavy in weight.
5) Cost/Suitability
Always store at times of peak supply and deploy at peak demand – in order of deployment each storage mode question.
57
Electrochemical Storage Technologies (5)
1. Lithium-ion Batteries
2. Temperature sodium based batteries
3. Lead Acid
4. Redox Flow Batteries (RFBs)
5. Power-to-gas (PtG)
Store as chemical potential energy during charge. Reconvert to electrical energy during discharge. Typically some form of battery.
High power/high energy density + often able to respond relatively quickly (milliseconds)
All require an inverter from DC to AC to interact with grid – increases cost, decreases efficiency.
58
Mechanical storage technologies?
Store electrical energy in various forms through mechanical action; characteristics vary with tech. Tend to have lower footprint and most widely used followed by batteries.
1. Pumped Hydro, 2. Flywheel, 3. Underground Salt Cavern (CAES)
59
What are Thermal Storage Technologies?
Store thermal energy to be reconverted to electrical energy.
Typically bulk - costly
Liquid Air Energy Storage – least used storage tech.
60
What storage tech for Grid (seasonal, daily, grid support)?
Hydro power - all
Power to Gas - seasonal
Hydrogen - daily & seasonal
Thermal - daily & grid
lithium, lead acid, redox - daily & grid
Flywheels - just grid
61
What storage tech for transport (road/shipping/off grid)?
Road = hydrogen, lithium
Shipping = hydrogen
Off-Grid/Microgrid = hydrogen, lithium, lead acid, redox
62
System Based approach to Getting High Penetration of Renewables in the UK?
Have to have high flexibility: if possible renewables 2/3 electricity supply. Low flexibility = Low renewables.
Optimal 2030 generation = (from 400g CO2/KWh to 50g CO2/KWh) entails:
- flexible generation
- demand side
- energy storage
- interconnection
Savings from reduced nuclear and CCS investments
63
Renewables + Storage costs & projections?
Solar PV + lead acid has been cost competitive with grid connection & off grid in much of Africa since 2011
Solar PV + Diesel from 2020 expected to be cheaper than lowest cost diesel today.
Most projected to become competitive by 2030 – different storage tech are cost effective for different applications.
64
What are the Policy and Regulation Challenges for Energy Storage?
Policy structures: accessing multiple streams of income - can't bid for more than one despite potentially servicing.
Removal of regulatory barriers (eg. double charging of fees as generator and consumer of electrical energy)
Smart Meters: consumers play a flat rate for electricity (not reflective of generation costs)
R&D, demonstration projects, and deployment support.
65
How do you build a case for a mitigation project?
Energy and Cost Model.
1) base case (reference scenario)
2) annual costs and carbon dioxide emissions = model outputs + energy cost, O&M, capital repayment
3) options appraisal against future demand scenarios.
4) Compare cost savings & CO2 emission savings against base case.
Projects considering solely CO2 emissions are difficult to assess – demand reduction is usually much easier reduction project to justify.
66
What is Energy Systems Modelling?
Dominate mitigation analysis & decarbonization pathways. Abstract representation of an energy system.
Mathematical formulation processing input info:
energy demand,fuel cost, tech, tech cost + CO2 budget
=> least expensive mix of techs and fuels that achieve our pathway (energy needs & carbon budget)
Helps us to organize information, represent complex systems, understand and evaluate different courses of action
67
What are the different types of energy systems models?
```
Technology rich; least cost (optimization);
Technology rich; simulation (global calculator)
Econometric models (economy)
```
Other tools: workshops; scenario tools (BEIS global calculator)
68
What kind of tradeoff’s do you face with ESM’s?
As computationally demanding:
```
Sectoral (single sector/whole system);
Temporal/spatial granularity;
Geographic scale (national/global);
Level of tech detail;
Feedback to macro economy;
solution objective (least cost/scenario)
```
69
What is the global calculator?
Tech rich global simulation model
40 levers to reach 2 degrees by 2050.
worlds: energy, land, and food systems projected until 2050 – full range of different scenarios; works out implication of choices so we can see impact of lifestyles, energy system and climate.
Used for business (long term planning); NGO’s; Governments (own action) and school
70
What are the categories/Sectors of levers in the global calculator?
Supply Side, Demand Side, Lifestyle & Land Use & Food.
Sectors: Transport, Buildings, Manufacturing, Electricity, Fossil Fuel, Land, Bioenergy & Food
71
What is the demand side comprised of in terms of energy?
Industry/Manufacturing, Transport, Buildings
72
What characterizes the energy system/emissions of industry?
Overall industry consumes around 35% of global energy = 150 EJ; 70% fossil, 20% electricity (also high emissions).
Iron & Steel (30%); Cement (26%); Other (23%); Chemicals (17%)
As countries get wealthier shift from agri to services, but manufacturing more or less constant – increases initially (China) then levels – forecast to keep rising…
73
Challenges with decarbonizing Industry?
1) Heterogeneous – very wide range sector & processes
2) High Temperature Processes – relying on direct buring of fossil fuels to reach.
3) Process emissions – arise from chemical processes (calcination of limestone cement) – electrification can’t address.
4) Competitiveness – traded internationally, need to be price competitive + carbon leakage (concern that companies will just move due to policy
74
How can you decompose emissions from Industry into equation?
Qualitative
G = (G/E) * (E/M) * (M/P) * (P/S) * S
```
G = GHG;
G/E = emissions intensity – per unit electricity used to produce
E/M = energy intensity
M/P = material intensity
P/S = product/service intensity – how much service per product
S = product/service delivered – services delivered through product
```
Where E = energy consumption; M = global production materials/$ tones; P = stock of products; S = services delivered
75
What can you do about Services as a lever for industry?
S drives demand: Reduce overall demand for products and services
Do we need to have such a consumption driven society? Relation between happiness & consumption (be all end all GDP)? Decreasing rates of return from increased wealth…
76
What can you do about product/service intensity industry?
Use them more intensively and increase efficiency – reducing waste (1/3 food wasted) requires behavioral change; delivering same product/service with fewer inputs. => increasing lifetime w repairs & maintenance; cars = 95% parked.
77
What can you do about material intensity industry?
Improved material efficiency – increase recycling (steel scraps); reducing yield losses (redesign/new protocols); reducing old materials; improved product design.
78
What can you do about energy intensity industry?
Improve energy efficiency reduce required inputs of energy.
2 groups:
1) Process specific options: highly dependent on manufacturing process (expensive redesign of processes + capital turnover rates makes this difficult – only if needs replacing anyway); step-change in efficiency.
2) Cross-cutting options – independent of manufacturing process – apply to equipment used across tech. like combined heat and energy = system based approach. Incremental improvements, typically cheaper.
79
What to do about emission intensity industry?
Switch from coal to gas where possible, from biomass to wastes, requires improved agriculture and waste management. Electrification of industry + CCS
80
Role of CCS in Industry? Challenges/Advantages
(4.6 GtCO2/year will need to be captures from industrial and upstream sites in 2050 with the IEA 2 degree scenario) – key for reducing process emissions.
Challenges: wide range of sources, pressures, temps and CO2 concentrations, heat integration more complex + add on tech = cost & penalty.
Advantages: potential for clustering, some high purity CO2 sources = easy win.
81
What might a zero carbon industry look like in the future?
Optimization throughout manufacturing industries:
- Steel = hydrogen, CCS;
- Cement = waste fired kilns, CCS
- Chemicals = bio-based plastic, Hydrogen
If we didn’t have CCS – could be hydrogen based production/electrolysis.
82
How do we overcome Innovation Challenges in Industry?
1) Large capital outlay (increases risk) = investment assistance, long term policy signals
2) Demonstration at scale = international collaboration & tech transfer allows for shared learning curve
3) Competitiveness = sector wide agreements, creating demand for low carbon products
83
What is the marginal abatement cost curve?
Marginal cost of abating CO2/ton
X = cumulative possible abatement in tonnes of CO2; y = cost per ton (negative and positive to right) – wideness of bars = potential.
Large number at negative cost – many techs that will pay themselves back over lifetime – one reason not then taken up because discount rate = 4%, actually 10% for most companies => disconnect.
84
What are the issues with MACC curves?
1) Very dependent on underlying assumptions – often not transparent
2) Interactions and path dependency (order in which you do makes big difference)
3) Costs exclude indirect costs/benefits
4) Assume rational agents with perfect information (no barriers into account)
5) Discount rate (social planner vs. company view)
6) Inter-temporal issues (snapshot – costs would be lower with learning rates – no trends captured)
7) No representation of uncertainty
85
Timelines – mitigation options short vs. long term?
Immediately – we need measurements of energy consumption & CO2 – lots of gaps here
Medium & long term – adoption best available tech (BAT)
Longer term: (50-2100) – novel tech, CCS, resource efficiency (transformative)
86
Barriers and Challenges to Industry Mitigation?
1) Monitoring and metering – costs of energy is what drives & CO2 monitoring – it’s expensive to keep track.
2) Technical – risk of interruptions to production. Most obvious things already done – now breakthrough tech required.
3) Costs – firms not familiar with MAC, high certification costs to trade carbon & threat of rising energy prices = main driver
4) Competitiveness – cannot pass on costs to customer
5) Policy – compliance, new equipment hurdles, highly complex landscape with lots of competing policies: EU ETS; CC agreements, levies, carbon price floor etc.
87
How can action be enabled to mitigation in industry?
Develop international standards for energy & emissions monitoring
Policy design to overcome barriers to adopt cost-effective techs, drive uptake of more expensive techs by subsidies and carbon pricing + tech transfer => BAT, fund RD&D
88
What characterizes the energy system/emissions of transport?
7.1 GT in 2010; Increased emissions is mainly from road
72% Road; 9.26 Shipping; 6.5% Aviation; Other 2%
89
How can you decompose emissions from Transport into equation?
G = Sum modal shares ((Gi,j/Ei,j) * (Ej/Mj) * (Mj/T)) * T
```
Where: i = fuel and j = mode
G = GHG;
G/E = fuel emissions intensity – fuel carbon intensity
Ej/Mj = energy intensity
M/T = modal share
T = Transport demand
```
Where; Gij = GHG of fuel i consumed in mode j (tCO2e); Eij = energy consumption of fuel i consumed in mode j; Ej = energy consumption of mode j; Mj = transport demand of mode j (passenger km/freight ton); and T = total demand for transport.
90
What can you do about Transport as a lever?
Reducing # journeys/journey distance: (relationship between GDP and cars – increases) densifying urban landscapes, sourcing local, optimized logistics, ICT conferencing; relative cost of fuel, social/cultural – younger gen favors walking/cycling.
Recognizing the fact that the travel time budget: marchettis constant – independent of wealth, race and geography – people spend 1.1-1.3 hrs/day travelling = speed of travel dictates range.
91
What can you do about model choice as a level for transport?
System/infrastructure and modal choice – switching to lower-carbon modes of travel: public transport, walking and cycling.
Passenger travel: heavily dependent on infrastructure & behavior change. Deliberate urban planning (bike lanes/sharing). Olympics = 77% of people changed a travel habit.
Freight: current trend away from rail and shipping to air and road. 70% truck growth expected until 2050. European commission set target of all freight >300km to be by rail or ship 2030 = doubling rail capacity needed. Time sensitivity with deliveries with aviation not poss.
92
What can you do about energy intensity transport?
Improve efficiency of vehicle performance:
- light-weight materials, design to make best in class, direct fuel injection, automated transmission, more gears + hybrids.
Potential for up to 50% improvement in fuel economy of lightweight duty vehicles by 2030.
EV’s: plug in hybrids (ICE) recharge from grid - fuel down 45%.
Both battery EV (lithium cost parity diesel) and hydrogen fuel cell are becoming competitive – but latter needs infrastructure. If EV’s become competitive with 70% take up = displaces 25 m barrels a day. Shocks of past = 2m.
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What can you do about emissions intensity transport?
Fuel switching to lower carbon fuels – includes electricity & natural gas.
Biofuels: 30-90% lower GHG/km than petroleum based;
Blends: ethanol and biodiesel (10-15%) with petroleum fuels and used in unmodified ICE’s.
If modify at low cost = higher blend (85).
+ Synthetic ‘drop in’ fuels with same properties as diesel/keroses can be derived from a range of feedstock/processes
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What characterizes the aviation sector & emissions?
- CO2 emissions = 2% of global but expected to grow by 5% a year reaching 3,100 Mt by 2050
- In the medium term, radical new aircraft deigns could improve efficiency by 25% compared to most efficient today + biofuels blending has proven feasible + allowed in commercial use
- Hyrdogen planes not rules out. Low energy density => large storage => major design modifications; big + = fueling infrastructure more centralized than cars (in airport)
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What are the co-benefits from mitigation in transport?
Health (reduced exhaust emissions + increased human activity), Reduced Noise & reduced road transport = deaths 1.27/year, Modal shifts = reduced congestion, improved public transport
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Behavioral aspects that impact transport mitigation?
Purchase behavior – Total cost of ownership
New Technologies – unwilling try new vehicles with different attributes; risk aversion
On-Road Fuel Economy – age/maintenance/conditions
Eco-Driving – 5-10% improvement – driver education
Rebound Effects – lower cost of travel => more travel
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Policy for transport mitigation?
Fuel tax, road pricing, sliding scale vehicle tax.
education, vehicle/road maintenance, fuel economy standards,
98
What characterizes the buildings sector & emissions?
- Non domestic buildings used for a variety of purposes all needing energy – end use drives emissions:
1. Retail, 2. Education, 3. Hotels, 4. Warehouses, 5. Gov, 6. Health
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Food retailers as part of the building sector?
Key to functioning society – competitive with small profit margins (2-6%); UK food system accounts for 19% of UK GHG emissions.
Supermarkets = 3.5% of total electricity = 1% of total emissions
Energy intensive buildings but due to competitive nature of business they publish their environmental credentials
Need to standardize reporting.
100
Why Supermarkets as a case study for mitigation?
Growing market share & profits make businesses unaware of carbon impact => more high energy properties & costs = unsustainable + rising carbon prices.
Better buildings, reduce energy cost risk, use less energy & source sustainably w/o losing customers, coordination & capital required.
Need buy in from executives otherwise go no-where – corporate mind-set.
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Process/approach mitigation in supermarkets case study?
Store layout & components to identify emission (end use drives requirements) => energy performance analysis (monitoring = benchmark) => energy efficiency strategies & cost effective mitigation strategies => project manage, implement, validate.
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Behavior for Building efficiency of responsible managers?
Policy & market, how use energy, know bill & structure, best time to reduce, know tech trade-offs (deploy best in class tech, make investments enhancing bottom line => smarter procurement strategies, energy efficiency programs & produce ‘own’ energy +
Many looking into Biogas:
Sainsbury engaged with dairy producer to obtain biomethane = NG => credits.
Delivering 0 carbon buildings – carbon accounting = most efficient buildings & incremental efforts to reduce footprint.
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What do we need to know to build Decarbonization pathways?
From where we are now to a 0 carbon economy:
1. How much energy does the world need/year until 2100
- Population, wealth, behavior
2. What technologies & fuels can provide that technology?
- Fossil fuel resource, renewable/nuclear resource, technology availability
3. How much do those fuels & techs cost now and in future?
- Innovation & scale
4. How much CO2 can we emit along our pathway?
- Climate sensitivity
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What are the challenges associated with building decarbonization pathways?
1. Estimating future demand is complicated
2. How do we know what technologies to include
3. Estimating future technology cost is tricky
4. We don’t really know what our CO2 budget is
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Why is estimating future demand complicated?
No one view => standardized storylines about population and GDP & Geopolitics: baseline/reference cases = 5 SSP’s (social shared pathway’s) – put though energy system models => factor of 4 difference between energy demand of SSP1 (50% higher than today) & SSP5 (4x higher than today).
Not many modelling groups start with SSP5, and those who do any try to get in line with 2-degree world struggle to do so.
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Why knowing which technologies to include so difficult?
Obviously very hard to talk about adoption nor know what technologies we’ll be using.
All futures assume a lot of bioenergy with CCS - we know it works in theory.
+ most models cannot achieve below 2 degrees without net negative emissions in second half of the century
(mobile market = 900k – actual 109 m)
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Why is estimating future technology cost so difficult?
Projections, very difficult to reply upon;
Solar PV example:
TIAM grantham: $3,500/KW 2010 to $1,500 in 2100. Other models range: $8,000 to $2000
Actual: 4,000 to 1000 - Nobody predicted.
+ Very difficult to keep models assumptions updated (over 1,000)
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Why is it so hard to know our CO2 budget?
Climate models: so many complicated feedbacks => modelling is based on assumptions of what CO2 emissions will do in terms of warming.
Range: 1700 GTCO2 => 4500 GTCO2 for 50% of under 2
Hoping range will narrow over time but great uncertainty.
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What are the typical features of low-carbon pathways in a 2-degree scenario?
1) Mix of primary energy transforms:
- from fossil to renewable + biomass & CCS and lots of energy efficiency.
2) Electricity decarbonized:
electrification of transport; buildings (heating) + different techs.
3) End use shifts to a mix of fuels:
- transport: from oil to biofuel, hydrogen and electricity;
- buildings: electrification & biomass;
- industry: biomass + gas + CCS.
But the scenario space (1000 scenarios) is huge and results depend on key assumptions about technologies and costs.
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Are decarbonization pathways plausible?
Have to look at what’s happened in the past and where we need to get to. GW averages from ESM’s = to reach 2 degrees if global action by (technologies respectively) annually/year!!
80 GW gas + ccs; 83 Nuclear; 48 Wind; 23 solar –2020
160 Gas + CCS; 64 Nuclear; 75 Wind; 130 solar – 2030
Globally coordinated least cost way, nuclear decreases as stays constant in price => relatively more expensive).
So far:
50 Coal; 20 Gas, 20 Nuclear, 15 Wind, 4 Solar – between 2000-2010/ year.
- We have an enormous challenge but might be possible given size of energy system today and the economy…
But, tech commercialization takes time (implausible gas + CCS shortly) + growth in tech rates + reliant on negative emissions.
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Tech development typical timeline?
Commercialization takes time from lab to demo to deploy
Evidence assessment = Ion (20 years); Solar 60 yrs, Nuclear (40 years) mindful of this.
All at least 10 – 30 years from laboratory to market deployment.
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Typical Tech Growth Rates?
Tech growth not exponential;
- rates rarely above 20% (except solar PV 40%)
- S shaped (more there is – replace)
- established primary won’t give up without fight
=> declines gradually
(if you add in growth constraints to model = the 1,340 GTCO2 budget can’t be met)
why policy is so important => lead to greater tech growth.
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Limitations of ESM’s & policy?
Grossly misleading? As part of IAM’s….
Sets mitigation costs against BAU baseline but fails to account for:
- dynamics of innovation
- human behaviour
- Lack transparency
- don’t show why model results differ
- seek to project costs beyond reasonable time-horizon.
Yet still dominant in policy-making: Setting international context for IPCC, estimating costs of EU mitigation strategies, setting UK carbon budgets, exploring consequences of tech innovation pathways.
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What are the driver of land use?
Food and meat consumption
Food trade balance
crop and livestock yield
bioenergy forms and yields
land multiuse & degradation
wastes and residues
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What is food production dependent upon?
- Land area required = population growth, per capita food consumption (kcal/day) & agricultural yields – food produced/unit of land area
- Meat consumption so impactful: methane emission from ruminant animals & crop land required to produce feed for the livestock
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Supply side Mitigation strategies for afforestation & land use?
1) Reduce emissions from cropland & livestock;
2) Reducing energy consumption in agricultural activities.
3) Conserve existing stock (reduce deforestation);
4) changes in albedo from land use
5) Enhanced carbon sequestration in soils (afforestation);
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Demand side Mitigation strategies for afforestation & land use?
1) Reduction in losses in the food supply chain;
2) dietary changes;
3) wood & forestry demand: use of wood in long-lived products.
118
Technical bioenergy potential?
How much available vs. needed as food = inconclusive.
Food/fiber first principle (whatever remain thereafter = biofuels).
The primary global biomass energy supply need is generally argued to be at least 100EJ/year – but heavily dependent on assumptions. Issue of competing uses for bioenergy resources across energy sector
119
What are the negative emission technologies?
Most pathways rely on some form of CCS or calcium carbonate cycle (capitalizing on that reaction).
Other options are: ocean fertilization or alkalinity, biomass + CCS (most well-known & realistic), direct air capture, afforestation – who would pay and how would it work = uncertainties.
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Likelihood of reliance on negative emissions?
IPCC 5AR = 101/116 scenarios achieve below 2 degrees relied on BECCS (bioenergy + CCS)
- 67% said BECCS = 20% primary energy need in 2100
- BECCS = 2-10 GTCO2/year in 2050
Whilst Natural carbon sinks:
- 9.2 GTCO2 (oceans) + 10.3 GTCO2 terrestrial – we need to capture as much as the natural sinks – very challenging.
+ we don’t know how much we’ll have left for fuel after food => hence we need other options (direct air capture).
If we delay action until 2030 we have to have 3x as much negative emissions within this century. Mean negative emissions necessary = 608 GTCO2 (of the 1,320 budget). Means, least cost way of meeting carbon budget = emit 2,200 GTC02 and capture 800-900 as negative emissions – basically really challenging.
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Uncertainties around Negative Emission Technologies?
1) Presence of safe, long-term storage capacity
2) response of natural land & ocean to carob sinks
3) cost of financing untested tech
4) socio economic barriers.
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Mean negative emissions we need to capture?
Mean negative emissions necessary = 608 GTCO2
(of the 1,320 budget)
= least cost way of meeting carbon budget = emit 2,200 GTC02 and capture 800-900 as negative emissions – basically really challenging.
If we delay action until 2030 we have to have 3x as much negative emissions within this century.
