Module 2 - The Intelligence Analyst Flashcards
(18 cards)
What is the ‘’purpose” in the Elements of Thought?
Purpose is the goal or objective behind analysis; it helps analysts stay focused and relevant.
Why is it important to define the question or issue in analysis?
It sets the direction of your analysis and must be clear, concise, and relevant to your purpose.
What is an example of a purpose-question pair in analysis?
Purpose: Assess security risks in a region.
Question: What are the primary factors causing the instability in the region?
What is interpretation and inference in critical thinking?
Making sense of information and drawing conclusions from it.
What questions should analysts ask when interpreting data?
What does this data mean? What are the possible conclusions or scenarios?
What are ‘Concepts’ in the context of analysis?
Theories, principles, or ideas that frame analysis, like political theory or strategic frameworks.
Why is understanding assumptions important in analysis?
Faulty assumptions can lead to faulty conclusions; they must be constantly questioned.
What is the role of point of view in analysis?
Analysis is conducted from a perspective; recognizing biases and considering alternative views is essential.
What is cognitive bias?
A systematic error in thinking that affects decisions and judgments.
What is confirmation bias?
The tendency to seek and favor information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradicting evidence.
What is hindsight bias?
The tendency to see events as predictable after they happen, oversimplifying causes of outcomes.
What is anchoring bias?
Relying too heavily on the first piece of information received, which can distort further analysis.
What is mirror imaging in analysis?
Assuming the enemy thinks and acts like you, leading to misjudgments.
What is the first step to overcoming biases?
Self-awareness—recognizing your own biases.
What is the role of ‘pause and review’ in combating bias?
It encourages breaks in analysis to challenge assumptions and promote objectivity.
What structured analytical techniques (SATs) help overcome bias?
ACH (Analysis of Competing Hypotheses), Devil’s Advocacy, and Red Team Analysis.
How does peer review support analytical accuracy?
It introduces feedback loops that challenge assumptions and improve the quality of analysis.
What are the 8 elements of though?
- Purpose
- Question and issue
- Information
- Interpretation & Inference
- Concepts
- Assumptions
- Implications & Consequences
- Point of View
