MTII Flashcards

1
Q

What is peak oil?

A

a. Peak Oil is the simplest label for the problem of energy resource depletion, or more specifically, the peak in global oil production.
i. Oil is finite, non-renewable resource, one that has powered phenomenal economic and population growth over the last century and a half. The rate of oil ‘production’, meaning extraction and refining (currently about 85 million barrels/day), has grown almost every year of the last century.

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2
Q

You should know the basic claims of Hubbert & Hirsch. (Resilience article)

A

a. M. King Hubbert – the first to predict an oil peak
i. U.S. geologist working for shell oil. In 1956, Hubbert predicted that production from the US lower 48 states would peak between 1965 and 1970. It ended up peaking in 1970/1971. – Basically oil will peak
b. The ‘Hirsch Report’
i. Summary – as peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.
ii. Essentially we should create a plan before the peak which hasn’t happened.

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3
Q

McGuire’s Input-Output Framework is covered in the department’s persuasion class. For our purposes you should understand the basics of the framework and realize that its components form what—in McGuire’s words—are a “resource checklist” for analyzing communication campaigns. Beyond that understanding you should know the following:
• What are the five classes of persuasive communication input variables?
.

A
  1. Source 2. Message 3. Channel 4. Audience 5. Destination
    Structure of argument – attitude structure assumes that attitudes are organized into interconnected systems so that a persuasive communication that deals with one issue is likely to have ramifications on other unrelated issues. Giving new information from an outside source or increasing the salience of information already within the audiences own belief system by means of a directed thinking task can change attitudes
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4
Q

How are fear appeal messages defined?

A

Fear appeal messages “refer to those contents of a persuasion communication which allude to or describe unfavorable consequences that are alleged to result from failure to adopt and adhere to the communicator’s consciousness.” And “attempt to change our attitudes by appealing to [the] unpleasant emotion of fear.” Simply put, the logic of a fear appeal strategy is to get people’s attention and emphasize the dangers of risky behaviors, thereby increasing the likelihood that people will engage in less risky behaviors.

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5
Q

What does the intro claim about exposure to fear appeals affecting behavior? (Ch 11 - book)

A

The idea that fear can motivate is intuitively compelling and, in fact, has been a central tenet of emotion theory… however, decades of scholarship also suggest a complex picture in which exposure to fear appeals sometimes reduce risky behavior under certain circumstances.

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6
Q

What are two fundamental notions about fear appeals that involve some controversy?

A
  1. An affective state of fear is a discrete emotion with characteristics distinct from other emotions
  2. Fear has served a function for humans over time
    ⇨ Fear propels people to protective action in response to perceived danger
    o For example, happiness invites behavioral maintenance and anger invites active attack to remove perceived obstacles
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7
Q

What is risk (and by contrast what is the instructor’s counter definition)?

A

Risk represents the possibility of danger and danger indicates a possible loss, injury, or other negative outcome.
Idk the instructor’s counter example

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8
Q

What is the risk point about lack of uniformity?

A

One important explanation for why exposure to risk information does not uniformly translate into behavior change lies in the lack of uniformity among people in the perception and interpretation of risk. There is often a gap between real and perceived risk; people lack the skills to accurately interpret risk information.

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9
Q

You should have a basic notion of fear appeal theories, including fear as a drive, the parallel response model, protection motivation theory, and the extended parallel process model.

A
  • Fear as drive – drive = state of tension that motivates people to find ways to reduce tension.
    o The assumption that intense and disturbing emotions, including fear, are functionally similar to a drive
  • Parallel Response Model – increasing fear produced gains in protective responses
    o 4 components needed in a fear appeal: 1) perceived vulnerability 2) perceived severity 3) response efficacy 4) self-efficacy
    o this theory’s focus primarily involves cognitive processes and does not explicate the possible explanatory role of fear as an emotion
  • Extended Parallel Process Model – exposure to a fear appeal initiates two appeals of a message. First, information in the message is used to appraise the threat of the hazard, based on perceptions about the severity of the threat as well as how susceptible individuals believe themselves to be the threat.
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10
Q

Note in the “fear as a drive” section the point on curvilinear interpretation.

A
  • Janis proposed a curvilinear interpretation where increasing fear produces adaptive responses up to the point where fear becomes too strong, after which adaptive responses should decrease.
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11
Q

Note the general point in the first sentence of the information processing section.

A
  • Where as fear appeal theories developed clear predictions about outcomes of exposure to particular message configurations, they have been less clear on the message processing mechanisms that explain those outcomes.
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12
Q

What are approach and defense activation, and how do they differ?

A
  • Intense positive emotions activate an approach system and intense negative emotions, including fear, activate a defensive system. Approach activation involves consideration of all available information, whereas defense activation leads people to quickly fall back on internalized responses.
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13
Q

At the top of p. 171 what do the authors conclude about the likelihood of curvilinear effects?

A

“… linear effects of fear appeals on message acceptance are more likely than curvilinear effects.”

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14
Q

What does the Fear Appeals section note about laboratory settings?—note, too the Hastings report.

A
  • The complete information environment in which public communication campaigns operate have little resemblance to laboratory settings in which all possible competing or reinforcing sources of influences are controlled.
  • Hastings… reports that the few evaluations of explicit fear appeal campaigns that have been published generally demonstrate smaller fear appeal effects than lab studies.
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15
Q

Why does oil peak? Why doesn’t it suddenly run out? (Resilience article)

A

Oil companies have, naturally enough, extracted the easier to reach, cheap oil first. The oil pumped first was on land, near the surface, under pressure, light and ‘sweet’ and therefore easy to refine. The remaining oil is more likely to be off-shore, far from markets, in smaller fields and of lesser quality. It therefore takes ever more money and energy to extract, refine, and transport. Under these conditions, the rate of production inevitably drops. Furtheremore, all oil fields eventually reach a point where they become economically, and energetically, no longer viable.

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16
Q

Note the authors’ identification of the oceans problem and the claims about lack of awareness and media coverage of the issues.

A
  • Basically there are a lot of problems with the ocean and people are barely concerned – they’re essentially unaware or uninformed.
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17
Q

What is the focus of the chapter? (Ch 16)

A
  • “Solutions to these complex ocean environmental problems including the need to develop greater ocean literacy, seem scarce. But crises, fortunately, can also create opportunities for new paradigms to emerge such as with the sub discipline of environmental communication (EC). This is the focus of the chapter…”
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18
Q

what are monologic modes?

A

a one-way or linear transmission of information to raise awareness, educate, or persuade. Special care is taken in determining the target audience, the message development and source, and the most appropriate channel of communication

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19
Q

what are dialogic modes?

A
  • Two-way or participatory mode describes discourse, information exchanges, mutual understanding, and consensus development that occur in community-based social marketing initiatives, citizen science programs, or stakeholder-driven processes.
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20
Q

Have a basic understanding of the approaches taken in the Seafood Watch/Monterey Bay Aquarium campaign.

A
  • Seafood Watch = buycott campaign where Monterey Bay Aquarium visitors = primary audience
  • Monterey Bay = educational campaign
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21
Q

what is the claim about effective communication strategy?

A

“An effective communication strategy to reach diverse goal audiences and secure difficult-to-achieve sustainability outcomes requires planners and researchers to accurately identify the linkages between the ecological, physical, economic, and social aspects (including values) related to a particular issue.

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22
Q

what do the authors argue that 21st Century environmental communication efforts requires?

A
  • “Consequently, 21st century environmental communication efforts require more substantive strategies than simple monologic (silver bullet or knowledge deficit) designs relied upon in former decades. Responding effectively to the challenges posed by today’s crises demands the transdisciplinary convergence of social ad environmental science perspectives to formulate innovative, theory-based communication models and assessment techniques, such as those presented here.”
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23
Q

What did CJR report about peak oil in 2008? What is the problem with our reporting of the story?

A

a. It is a complex story that has gained prominence in recent years – especially as oil prices spiked last summer – but still begs clear, nuanced explanation. The overall conclusion of Monday’s panel, however, seemed to be that the press should not (or cannot) bear full responsibility ofr the public’s lack of concern about our future energy economy.

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24
Q

Theobald—Why is peak oil an underreported story?

A

a. “There’s a tendency, especially among academics, to blame journalism,”
b. Underreported story, partly because it remains a tough sell in newsrooms. It doesn’t make for great art, either. An analysis of how global oil production affects gas prices will always take a backseat to a photo of unhappy people who think they are paying too much at the pump.

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25
Q

Maass—What are the challenges to reporting on oil? What solution does he see?

A

a. “Oil’s not a country that I can visit,” he said. “It’s not a person I can follow around, Oil has no voice of its own.”
b. The reality is that this type of investigative journalism probably won’t ever be very lucrative, he added, and we have to get used to the idea that the media no longer has the resources to fill its former role.
c. Solution – Citizen Journalists picking up the slack. “It’s going to be people within the [energy] industry finding the writer in themselves and writing books that explain to the world what’s going on.”

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26
Q

Margonelli—Most of the media write to what level? Media rely too much on what? What does she claim about rewards as an energy reporter? What is “Jules Verne-ism”?

A

a. Most of the media write for a sixth-grade level – something she calls “hyper-simplification” – omitting the complexities and consequences of our energy choices.
b. Media rely too much on reporting what “authorities” say, without working to dig out multiple perspectives on issues like peak oil.
c. “There are no rewards for going rogue as an energy reporter.” The consequences range from not being able to get that next interview to having an editor refuse to run a controversial story.
d. Jules Verne-ism – running stories about cool new advances in renewable energy over ones about how difficult it will be is to wean ourselves off oil and coal.

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27
Q

Heinberg—High oil prices do what, as far as educating the public is concerned?

A

a. High oil prices create a window of opportunity, a teachable moment. – Heinberg also said it is better to focus on making a strong, independent case about the limitations of our oil supply than to worry about responding to skepticism

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28
Q

What is the main point of this article (see first three paragraphs). – Energy Optimist’s Lexicon

A

a. World’s energy optimists usually use a different lexicon (or word bank) to state their case and basically their arguments cannot be easily implemented.

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29
Q

What is the problem with “above-ground factors”?

A

a. Above-ground factors – optimists argue that there is plenty of oil, usually for many decades to come, as long as “above-ground factors” don’t prevent it’s extraction. These include wars, social unrest, lack of investment, environmental restrictions on drilling, and political restrictions.
b. The problem with this is these factors are easily fixed or solved. On top of that, the oil industry is both an above-ground and below-ground system.

30
Q

What are the two problems with “at current rates of consumption”?

A

a. First problem is the rates of consumption are not steady and they are growing exponentially.
b. The second problem – fossil fuels are finite and that means that their rate of production will peak long before we run out of them. This decline in the rate of production after the peak poses serious problems for world society whose systems are based on ever-increasing rates of energy consumption.

31
Q

Why is “clean coal/carbon capture and sequestration” a troublesome set of phrases?

A

a. “Clean coal” is often used to mean only the removal of harmful pollutants, but not the sequestration of carbon dioxide. This means the green house problem is still in effect.

32
Q

The phrase “demand destruction” disguises what?

A

a. Demand Destruction – simply put, it means individuals, households, businesses and even governments stop using something or use less of it when it becomes too expensive.
b. Disguises that some people, particularly in poor countries, simply had to forgo the benefits of oil altogether or use far less of it. For some poor areas which rely on diesel-generated power, it meant little or no electricity. Loss of services like that can be life-threatening

33
Q

What is the author’s issue with “resources”, and what is the rate of extraction issue? (The Energy Optimist’s Lexicon)

A

a. “Even when a resource has actually shown to exist, this does not necessarily mean it is recoverable using current technology and at current prices.”
b. Rate of extraction issue – world economic growth depends not on the size of the resource, but on the rate of extraction. TO date we have exploited the resources that are easiest to find and extract which is an entirely rational approach.
i. The harder to extract resources have a lower rate of extraction.
c. Another issue – be aware that “resource” and “reserve” are often used interchangeably; but the different between them is the different between the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea.

34
Q

Review the many issues the author has with the term “substitution”? (The Energy Optimist’s Lexicon)

A

a. Substitution can take place when prices of existing energy sources rise. Higher prices encourage development of alternatives and enhance demand for them.
i. But there is no gauarantee
1. That substitutes will emerge
2. That they can or will grow to a large enough scale
3. That in financial or energy terms they will be as cheap as current energy sources
4. That they will be deployed in time to prevent significant disruptions to world society

35
Q

“Technically recoverable” means what?

A

a. Rocks on the moon are “technically recoverable.” But we wouldn’t mine the moon for roadway aggregates. Many resources that are technically recoverable are actually energy sinks.

36
Q

Technology” has up and down sides. What is the author’s view?

A

a. “While it is true that there have been impressive advances in energy exploration and production technology in the last few decades, it does not appear to be enough.”
b. But there will come a time when depletion outpaces technology and that time may be near if it hasn’t already arrived.

37
Q

“Unproven/undiscovered” is problematic, too, why?

A

a. It is not reasonable to assume that these resources will come in quantities we require, at prices we like and at the rates of extraction we desire. Since we have gotten to most of the easy-to-get energy resources, the harder stuff comes next.

38
Q

Why does Payne feel that an update to his writing about peak oil is warranted?

A

a. But an update is warranted in order to address comments from friends and followers – comments such as “Gee, I guess Peak Oil has been postponed?”, or “I guess we don’t have to worry about Peak Oil anymore!”

39
Q

You should understand Payne’s point about high oil prices not making an impression on people (and, by extension, the impact on advocates who would like to wage a campaign to respond to the peak oil problem).

A

a. “Current oil and gasoline prices don’t make more of an impression on them, compared to a few news stories on shale oil booms.”

40
Q

Understand Payne’s SAQ model. [If you understand this model and little more in this unit, your skills as an energy analyst may be better than those of 99% of Americans.]

A

a. Essentially the model was using an MMBO/D (Couldn’t find that this meant) as a unit/rate. It was predicted to have 4.25 MMBO/D by 2015 and currently we’re at about 1.6MMBO/D and it hasn’t grown much in the past few years. Basically the prediction that shell oil extraction has been vastly over estimated and the problem of peak oil is still there

41
Q

You should have a good sense of Payne’s summary and bottom-line.

A

a. Summary
i. “Overall, the new shale oil plays and the Canadian tar sands appear to be capable of adding an incremental – North American – production rate of around 4.2 MMBO/D by 2020.
ii. According to the EIA, in 2011 the USA produced 5.6 MMBO/D and consumed 18.8 MMBO/D ( I think MMBO/D is like millions of barrels of oil per day or something)
b. Bottom-line
i. The shale oil plays represent an opportunity to reduce foreign oil imports by 30% or more, thereby substantially reducing the balance of payments (outflow of dollars from the USA)
ii. Overall, these plays don’t solve the much larger issue of Peak Oil, but they do help “buy time”. The shale oil plays will reduce but not eliminate our reliance on foreign oil.

42
Q

Relate this article to the lecture on desperation & diatribe in communication campaigns, and be prepared to describe how this commentary would be received by, well, anyone with a serious position of responsibility in American society.

A

a. Class example? – Don’t have notes on this atm

43
Q

Note Swenson’s lack of data in his claim about nuclear power and his analogy of our circumstances to those of our great-grandparents.

A

a. “Nuclear power swirled down into the ocean in March and humanity’s perceived energy options narrow sharply. We are back to where our great-grandparents were their whole lives: figuring out from-one-day-to-the-next how to live within a solar budget. They did it (or we wouldn’t be here having this conversation). We can do it too. But we have to shift gears”

44
Q

Note Swenson’s lack of data in his claim about how “with most mountains, the dark side is steeper than the sunny side.”

A

a. Noted
i. We are sliding down the back side of the peak, and just like with most mountains, the dark side is steeper than the sunny side. Will it be a soft or hard landing? Well…it depends:
ii. If we have already used too much of our reseources, it will be a hard landing.

45
Q

Be prepared to explain the strategic aspects in a communication campaign of referring to a person to whom your organization is attempting to appeal as “a traitor” and acts committed by every member of Congress as “treason.”

A

a. Class example? – Don’t have notes on this atm

46
Q

Summary of Commentary: Slam on the brakes!

A

a. Essentially the article is saying that slowing down on fossil fuel consumption just means you’re drowning slower. Still drowning though. We have to slam on the brakes, and with all the knowledge we’ve gained, we will be better equipped than our great grandparents – age before fossil fuels.

47
Q

What is Smil’s thesis?

A

a. The problems that ail the U.S. economy and American society are one and the same: Both consume too much and refuse to make badly needed changes.
b. Its real problems are wasteful private energy use and the near-total absence of effective, down to earth, long-term policies

48
Q

What is the U.S./Europe comparison he makes?

A

a. The United States consumes nearly twice as much energy per capita as the richest countries of the European Union, which raises the question: What has it gotten in return?

49
Q

What does Smil claim about U.S. industries?

A

a. U.S. industries from steel-making to plastics synthesis are among the world’s most energy-efficient; American agriculture is highly productive, as are America’s railroads.
i. However, Americans themselves have been living beyond their means, wasting energy in their houses and cars

50
Q

What about U.S. houses? And cars? And passenger trains?

A

a. The size of the average American house has more than doubled since the 1950s
b. Automobiles are even worse. Incredibly, the overall efficiency of America’s cars, vans, and SUVs didn’t budge between 1986 and 2006.
c. We also could have built rapid trains on par with France’s Trains a grande vitesse to serve high-population-density regions such as the corridor.

51
Q

What does he conclude about U.S. energy imports and our future?

A

a. America imports more than 25% of its energy, paying more than $2 trillion for the privilege over the past decade and still ends up with little to show for it. The United States now faces the choice of curbing its energy appetite with deliberation, commitment, and foresight, or waiting for the unraveling economy to put it on a painful crash.

52
Q

A Hummer in Every Driveway Summary

A

a. Essentially we spend too much, we need to change or else we will hit a wall.

53
Q

What does the peak oil organization that is the subject of the article do well?

A

a. Optimistic View with solutions!

54
Q

What is it not doing well? (Solutions, solutions, solutions: Motivating college students, and the future of ASPO-USA)

A

a. Not actually offering solutions

55
Q

What is the author’s dumbing down point? (Solutions, solutions, solutions: Motivating college students, and the future of ASPO-USA)

A

a. If there are solutions, the 20-something year olds will come

56
Q

Read the publisher’s note. (Solutions, solutions, solutions: Motivating college students, and the future of ASPO-USA)

A

a. Publisher’s note parsing one key word above – “solutions.” This writer avoids the use of the word “solutions” as it can be misconstrued to imply that there are relatively straightforward and timely techno-fixes to our looming peak oil predicament. The possible implication, once we “figure out the right recipe of substitute fuels,” is that we can continue on with our current energy-intensive lifestyle. That’s a fantasy (and one that Alysoun doesn’t intend here). At this late date, with peak oil likely just over the horizon, this writer holds out hope that we will at least “respond intelligently”…
b. That said, we hear the above call to arms from the motivated and talented UC Davis team…that ASPO-USA needs to objectively explore and articulate the full suite of intelligent responses, adaptations and adjustments that will be required as we head towards the world of tomorrow, a world with more people, a little less oil, and enormous challenges.

57
Q

How does Udall describe the notion popular notion that we “have 100 years supply of natural gas”?

A

a. This meme that we’ve got a 100-year supply of natural gas started at the Colorado School of Mines. They have a volunteer group there called the Potential Gas Committee, but the Potential Gas Committee is not looking at proven reserves; they’re looking at how much carbon might there be in 5000 feet of the Mancos shale.
b. Now, this field is primarily an oil field. But in that 80-year period of time we’ve produced enough natural gas to run the US for four months.

58
Q

Why has there been “all this hype” about U.S. energy production?

A

a. There was hype because there were a lot of oil fields but they didn’t add to a lot and the “hype has gotten way out of control because if you make energy policy based on the notion that you have 100 years’ supply of natural gas, enough to export…that’s kind of where this rubber hits the road, when we start telling ourselves a story that we have enough to export natural gas. - - not sure if this is the whole answer but this is what I got out of it.

59
Q

What is Udall’s “progeria” point?

A

a. Progeria – disease of accelerated aging.
i. These wells, both the shale gas and tight oil wells, essentially have the same sort of disease of accelerated aging, accelerated depletion.

60
Q

What are the two objectives of the communications plan suggested by Cobb?

A

a. Objective 1: To develop relationships with reporters and editors working for major media outlets, both electronic and print, in order to encourage the inclusion of the peak oil perspective in applicable stories.
b. Objective 2: To provide materials and information for public education purposes aimed at policy makers and general audiences

61
Q

How should the organization efforts be organized?

A

a. “…need to be organized around a set of consistent messages that are easy to communicate and easy for the listener to understand.”

62
Q

An audience expects what? (Cobb 1)

A

a. “Since ASPO will primarily be focused on an American audience, it is important to understand that the audience is accustomed to happy endings.”

63
Q

What assumption do ASPO members share?

A

a. “… as a matter of consensus we share a view that something can be done to mitigate the effects of oil… ASPO does believe as an organization that vast changes are in store for the world and for American society in particular.”

64
Q

Audiences are accustomed to what?

A

a. Happy endings

65
Q

What are the two scenarios described by Cobb?

A

a. “Do-Nothing” Scenario which would outline the many tragedies that will befall us if we simply do nothing to prepare… will be dismissed as improbable because we won’t just sit around and do nothing as a society
b. “Sensible responses” scenario can provide a basis for action that will lead to what feels like a happy ending, that is, happy on comparison to “Do Nothing.”

66
Q

Be familiar with the Official Story suggested in the article.

A

a. There is a problem with oil but there is enough left for the transition to alternative fuels to be seamless. It needs to be undermined for the public to act on the peak oil story.

67
Q

What are the three legs of the ASPO storyline suggested by the author?

A

a. 1st leg: the undermining of the official story
b. 2nd leg: explanation of oil – explain the idea of peak oil simply and clearly
c. 3rd leg: two-scenario scheme – allows people to find a path to action without giving them unrealistic expectations about a post peak world

68
Q

What are the three parts of the suggested communication program?

A

a. Public Education
b. Event Publicity
c. Media Relations

69
Q

What does the author conclude about crisis publicity?

A

a. ASPO is convinced oil will peak soon and that the run-up to the peak will be punctuated with crises… If ASPO cultivates a network of peak-oil aware reporters, crisis publicity will be much easier to manage.”

70
Q

What does the author claim about the role of free media?

A

a. “It has more credibility and it’s cheap. (Free media is seen as more credible because what receives news coverage is determined by reporters and editors who are presumed to be independent of their sources)